Transcript Symposium on the Public and Private Sector Partnership

Optimizing Communication
of Weather Information and
Uncertainty
Neil A. Stuart
WAS*IS March 2006
Brief overview of research plan
(From November WAS*IS)
• Collect informal survey information from Jeff
Craven regarding EM and Media preferences
• Coordinate formal survey information with
Jeff Lazo’s group
• Work with Kim/Keelin/Joel/Gina for WAS*IS
graphic to import into Symposium
Introduction
• Steer the discussion during the AMS
Symposium toward the research topic
– What various weather providers provide
– What information and formats their users prefer
Summary of the first step
Correspondence with Jeff Craven
•
No consensus on how to convey uncertainty to
users
EM meeting scheduled in early March so no
feedback
Jeff provided 2 studies on assessing uncertainty
•
•
–
–
Standard deviations in the ensemble MOS
Best conveyed in some graphical form, maybe bars and/or
graphs
Summary of the second step
Coordinate formal survey information
with Jeff Lazo’s group
– Administrative and staffing issues
prevented the survey from being
completed and put online
Summary of step three
Work with Kim/Keelin/Joel/Gina for WAS*IS
graphic to import into Symposium
Introduction
– I created an electronic version of the graphic for
comments around Christmas
– Sent it to across WAS*IS e-mail list
– Received valuable feedback from WAS*IS group
– Produced graphic and used it for introduction to
AMS Symposium
– Graphic is on the next page 
How do all the partners fit into the enterprise?
Scientists:
Public/Private/Military Forecasters
Academia/Researchers
Sector-specific resources
Development patterns
Budget/Political Factors
Interpretations of Nature
Non-weather information
?
Socio-economic status
Attitudes/Preferences
Social Capital
Knowledge/Beliefs
Individual
Decision
What actions to take:
Evacuate Y/N
Irrigate Y/N
Vacation where/when
Indoor/Outdoor function
Meteorological Data
Temperature
Precipitation
Pressure
Personal Observations
Community
Gatekeepers
Emergency Managers
Local Government
School Districts
Ag. Extensions
Fire Department
Tourist Industry
News Media
Summary of final step
• Conducted the AMS Symposium on the
Public/Private Sector Partnership
• Attended Communications Workshop
at AMS Annual Meeting
• Attended Symposium on the
Challenges of Severe Convective
Storms panel discussion
– The Production and Communication of
Severe Weather Warnings to the Public
Important notes from the Symposium
• Evolution of the NOAA Partnership Policy
– Very important to how the enterprise evolves
– Language in policy affects perceptions of risk
within the private sector
– Too much risk for private sector when
government can provide similar service
– Can potentially hinder progress in product
development and multi-sector partnerships
– Hindering product development means less
resources for research and user feedback
– Ultimate results
• Little to no progress in tailoring products to user needs
• Limited resources to develop products to creatively
address uncertainty
Creative product development and led by
the public/government sector
• Maintenance decision support system
– Partnership between FHA and private sector
• Graphical and text interface based on
collaborative research
• Continued optimization
• National Climatic Data Center
– Provides data for all sectors
– Data can be used to solve societal impact
problems
Creative product development and
collaboration led by the private sector
• XM Satellite Marine Weather
– Collaboration between University, private
sector and government
– Mariners with XM Satellite technology have
access to graphics and text
• National Council on Industrial Meteorology
• Commercial Weather Services Association
Support for multi-sector partnerships
in Academia
• National Weather Center
– Oklahoma encouraging universities to enhance
the local and regional economy
– Univ. of Oklahoma supports industry clusters that
compose the NWC
– Industry clusters work together
• Combine research
• Improve data
• New products and services
– New degree program at the University called
“Professional Meteorologist”
Support for multi-sector partnerships
in Academia
• Some concern about shifts in
government priorities, affecting
available funding
• Lack of money affects research and
development of products and services
• Changes in government administration
will continue to shift funding priorities
Open discussion
• Information sharing in research and development of
products
– Need as many organized efforts within our profession to
survey users on preferred formats of products
– NDFD has changed how information is delivered, so it is
very different process of surveying users
– The sectors can’t necessarily share what they learn about
user preferences
– Non-meteorological factors influencing product
development and user decision-making
• Psychological and social issues
• Available profit for reinvestment
• Perception of unbalanced risk in some cases hindering private
sector from creating more products and services
– Intellectual property becoming more of a problem,
especially between academia and the private sector
Open Discussion (Cont.)
• Communication within sectors perceived as improving, no
objective evidence
• Some real-time communication occurring between forecasters
and media via Instant Messaging
• Conveying uncertainty
–
–
–
–
–
–
Must coordinate across Enterprise
Will take a lot of time
Speak user’s language
Everyone has different thresholds for taking action
Providing a range of scenarios is one way to convey uncertainty
Next NRC report will address some of the issue
• Katrina changed the perception of the accuracy of weather
forecasts, and affected the Rita evacuation
• If we need the private sector to supply user information, maybe
the private sector should provide more forecasting services
• We must understand how the Enterprise acts on a higher level
before we address issues such as sector roles and services
based on user feedback
Communications Workshop
• Panel composed of Max Mayfield, CNN and TWC
experts
• Presentations by panelists
– People take action based on recommendations from local
officials, not actual warnings
– People don’t evacuate because they don’t want their
belongings taken
– Local and national media take days of careful and
constantly updated planning to cover the impact of weather
disasters
– Coverage during event is necessary as it is part of the
“complete story”, even though it may effect viewer
perceptions of danger
– Coverage has to be part show business because of ratings
– Evacuation experiences shape future response to forecasts
and warnings, Floyd and Rita may create future problems
– The Weather Channel mission statement specifically states
not being an alarmist or sensationalist
– Rapidly increasing usage of cell phone and internet
resources
Open Session
• “False alarms” have affected people’s perceptions of
danger, hype is not just weather, but includes
terrorism, health threats etc.
• No official study suggests live reports of severe
weather affect public perception of weather hazards
• Max Mayfield does not like some of the dangerous
behavior he has seen by the media, and it sends a
bad message
• Addressing the most vulnerable populations
– CNN and TWC suggested that it is largely up to local media
to reach the most vulnerable populations and find ways to
motivate them to take action
– Most vulnerable populations include elderly, people with
pets, special needs, and the poor, and men more than
women
– Must educate people off season, but then most people are
not necessarily interested to learn off season
– No clear ideas of how to reach the most vulnerable
populations, the ones who either can’t or refuse to take
actions
Open Session (Cont.)
• Communicating uncertainty
– Still a problem communicating uncertainty
– Cone of uncertainty displays will transition to probability of
tropical storm and hurricane force winds
– Don’t know if it will be accepted
• Stricter building codes would reduce insurance
costs
• Media wants more research into what information is
most useful to users, but little money to do research
• Consistency of message
– Usually a good relationship between the media and the NWS
but message to users not always consistent
– Media feels that they need to give those affected by
disasters a voice, and let the viewers interpret
Severe Local Storms SymposiumCommunication of Warnings
• Need the next revolutionary step in radar
technology to increase severe weather
warning lead times
• Must consider demographics when
communicating to users
• Private sector perceptions of user
preferences can be unfounded
– Can affect policy discussions
– Can affect perceptions by decision-makers
– Unfounded claims on use of NOAA Weather radio
and necessity of EAS for media notification
Severe Local Storms SymposiumCommunication of Warnings
• Inconsistency in message from government
sector
– Tornado Warnings for hurricane eyewalls
questioned
– Conflicts in NHC forecasts and local NWS Office
forecasts
– Inconsistent calls to action in statements and
warnings
• Local officials are not affected by false
alarms since they prepare for worst case
Severe Local Storms SymposiumCommunication of Warnings (Cont.)
• Private sector warning services
– Specific warnings for businesses and other specialized
users
– Liability for disagreeing with NWS warning is not an issue
based on many years of success
• Psychology
– Must highlight severe weather threats as far in advance as
possible
– Must get people to think about the possibility of hazardous
weather days in advance
– Weather sources should advise of weather threats well
downstream of active warnings
– Lower end users assume that it is someone else’s job to
protect them
– Media stories of “no warning” can shape public perception
of warnings, especially if minority view
• Must put money and resources to study user needs
Severe Local Storms SymposiumCommunication of Warnings (Cont.)
• No clear solution on how to get warnings to
people at night
– Sirens are an option
– Cell phone alarms
– Promotion of NOAA Weather Radio Alarms
• Should we as a meteorological community
promote NOAA Weather Radio as an
essential piece of equipment like a smoke
alarm?
• Some companies are developing new
communications tools
– GIS
– Satellite radio technology
Editorial
• Has project scope changed since November
WAS*IS?
– Original intent
• Investigate/document progress/research in communicating
weather information
• A focus on communicating/conveying uncertainty
– New focus
• Document current state of communication
• Suggest/recommend future efforts
• Problems and Frustrations
– Disappointed in lack of progress and creativity
– Based on perceived attitudes, few if any willing to put
effort/resources into meaningful/creative research
– Satisfied with status quo, assuming other people are
studying and addressing the problem
– Multi sector reluctance to share past/current research on
user needs
– Fundamental mistrust across sectors continues and must
be resolved
Editorial (Cont.)
• Project benefits from November
WAS*IS
– Interaction with colleagues helped focus
the topic
– Diverse backgrounds of colleagues
provided important perspectives
throughout the week
– Formal presentations on communications
influenced direction of study
Current plan to complete project
• Document current state of communication
– Notes from AMS sessions
– Reference conclusions from first and second
forums on future role of human
– Editorialize positive and negative aspects of
current state of communication?
• Suggest methods of improving future
communication
– More editorializing?
– Must be careful to reference as much as possible
• Publish in a Journal
Thank you for your time and attention!
Questions/Suggestions?