Transcript Introduction to Climate change Study Cell

Stakeholder Workshop in BUET, Dhaka on 8 March 2012
High-resolution Regional Climate Change
Information for Bangladesh to inform Impacts
assessments, Vulnerability indicators and
Adaptation policies
A.K.M. Saiful Islam
Principal Investigator & Coordinator, Climate Change Study Cell
Bangladesh University of Engineer and Technology (BUET)
Background
• Due to many factors such as poverty, unique
geographical location, population density etc.
make this nation more vulnerable to climate
change than any other countries of the world.
• Climate risks now need to be integrated into
national development projects and strategies.
• Knowledge on climate change impacts could
help taking adaptation measures into national
policy and planning processes.
Climate Change Study Cell
IWFM has established a
climate change study cell in
2008.
The vision of the Cell is to
establish itself as the
premier knowledge center
on climate change risk and
adaptation for Bangladesh.
Chief Guest was
Minister of Disaster
Management
Launching Ceremony
On March 08, 2009
Activities
• Conducting capacity building training in
collaboration with Met office funded by DFID on
Regional Climate change Modeling using
PRECIS on 14-18 February 2010 and follow-up
workshop on 1-3 June 2010.
Capacity Building Training
• More than 20 participants from various relevant
departments of BUET and other relevant organizations
such as–
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Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD),
Department of Environment, Institute of Water Modelling (IWM),
Natural Resource Studies (CNRS),
Water Resources Planning Organization (WARPO),
Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS),
Flood Forecasting and Warning Center of Bangladesh Water
Development Board (BWDB),
– Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services
(CEGIS) etc.
– Department of Environment (DOE)
• Due to limitation of the space and facilities, it was not
possible to accommodate other relevant organizations.
Climate Research
• A research project consists of 14
components was funded by Ministry of
Environment and Forestry (MOEF) under the
climate change trust fund of the Govt.
• This 2 years project is ongoing which is
entitled as “Institutional Strengthening
of Climate Change Study Cell at BUET
for Knowledge Generation and Human
Resource Development”
Research Components
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Development of Flood Hazard and Risk maps with Effect of Climate Change
Scenario
Change Review of Warning System for Climatic Disasters
Study on Residual Flow in the Bay of Bengal considering future Climate Change
induced Hydro-Meteorological Scenarios
Adaptation Strategies of GO and NGOs Combating Climate Change Impacts: A
study on Perception of Communities in the Coastal Areas
Impact of Climate Change in Bangladesh: A Multi-Sector Regional Analysis
Improving Energy Efficiency and Emission Characteristics of Biomass Cooking
Stoves by Incorporating Beneficial Aspects of Different Kilns
Impact of Climate Induced Disasters on Gender
A Techno-Economic Assessment of Algae Biofuel Production in Bangladesh
Importance of Green Chemistry in the Synthesis of Nanomaterials, Supramolecules
and Heterocyclic Compounds through Metal Mediated Reactions.
Promotion of Zero/Low energy Built environment concept and practice by
establishing a Multidisciplinary Centre: for knowledge generation and
dissemination, through planning, design and development using Low Energy
Sustainable methods for creating Built Environment
Need of Climate Modeling
• Climate Change modeling in Regional level
is one of the tools which can help to
predict possible future climate change
scenarios for the nation.
• There is a need for Upazila level highresolution climate information, taking into
account various uncertainties in climate
projections for decision making
Objectives
• To generate probabilistic climate change
information at 25km resolution for
administrative regions of Bangladesh for
three time slices into future.
• To prepare, from these model runs, the
user-relevant and policy oriented climate
change information suitable for decision
makers in Bangladesh.
Objectives
• To demonstrate the usefulness of the
probabilistic climate projections at local
level, the impacts on world heritage site
the Sundarbans will be investigated.
• Create awareness of this project and
release a mapping tool containing the key
climate change information for
Administrative regions of Bangladesh
Regional Climate change modeling in
Bangladesh using PRECIS
• PRECIS regional climate
modeling is now running
in Climate change study
cell at IWFM,BUET.
• Uses LBC data from
GCM (e.g. HadCM3).
• LBC data available for
baseline, A2, B2, A1B
scenarios up to 2100.
Topography of Experiment Domain
Scenarios and Models
Experiment ID
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Description of the Simulation
ERA40:Reanalysis
ERA-Interim: Reanalysis
NCEP_R2:Reanalysis
HadAM3P:Baseline#1
HadAM3P:Baseline#2
HadAM3P:Baseline#3
HadAM3P:SRES_A2#1
HadAM3P:SRES_A2#2
HadAM3P:SRES_A2#3
HadAM3P:SRES_B2
HadCM3Q0:SRES_A1B
ECHAM4:Baseline
ECHAM4:SRES_A2
ECHAM4:SRES_B2
ECHAM5:SRES_A1B
Time Frame
1957-2001
1989-2009
1979-2004
1960-1990
1960-1990
1960-1990
2070-2100
2070-2100
2070-2100
2070-2100
1949-2099
1960-1990
2069-2100
2069-2100
1950-2100
Length( years)
40
20
25
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
150
30
30
30
150
Key outcomes of the project
• High resolution climate change information for
Bangladesh.
• Two case studies– A Case study on impact of climate change on the
Sundarbans ecosystems to demonstrate
usefulness of the high resolution RCM
information
– A case study on An Assessment of Present and
Future Changes of Hydrological Cycle of Haor
Basin Area
• Mapping tool for displaying climate change
information at the Upazilla level.
Objectives of this workshop
• Create national awareness about this research
project.
• Gather information from the stakeholders
regarding their needs and priorities of climate
change information.
• Possible future plan of using this high resolution
data for combating climate related disasters
through their organizations.
Thank you