Transcript Integrated Energy – North Asia A China Perspective

China’s Energy Challenge: Adjusting
to Higher Prices
Tao Wang Head of Asia Economics, BP
Oct 13, 2006, Moscow
China’s Energy: Some Basic Facts
Heilongjiang
Jilin
Xinjiang
Inner Mongolia
Gansu
Ningxia
Tibet
Liaoning
Beijing
Hebei Tianjin
Shanxi
Shandong
Qinghai
Shaanxi Henan
Sichuan
Yunnan
Jiangsu
Anhui Shanghai
Hubei
Zhejiang
Chongqing
Jiangxi
Hunan
Fujian
Guizhou
Guangxi
Guangdong
Hainan
•2nd largest energy producer
•2nd largest energy consumer
•2nd largest oil consumer, 3rd importer
•2nd largest CO2 emitter
•2nd largest power market
• Largest SO2 emitter
•4th largest GDP, 2nd largest GDPppp
Taiwan
2
China’s primary energy consumption mix 2005
Total consumption:
1554.0 Mtoe
53.1 Mtoe
408.6 Mtoe
Hydro Nuclear
1%
6%
Oil
21%
7.0 mb/d
Nautural
Gas
47bcm
3%
1081.9 Mtoe
Coal
69%
3
China’s net oil imports 1985-2005
Million b/d
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
4
China and World Oil Consumption Growth 1995-2005
China, lhs
Kb/d
ROW, lhs
Share of World oil demand growth, rhs
3000
55%
2500
45%
2000
35%
1500
25%
1000
15%
500
5%
0
-5%
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
5
Core of China’s Energy Security:
Energy saving
• - 20% energy/GDP by 2010
• Energy saving society
• Focused on structural change
Oil Security:
• Increase domestic production
• Import diversification
• “Go out” strategy
• “Oil substitutes”
• Strategic petroleum reserves
• Refinery upgrading
• Trading capabilities
Coal Security:
• 2.19 bt production in 2005
• Sustainable production at?
• Transportation bottleneck
• Pollution already exceeding limits
• Mining safety disastrous: 3 lives/mt
• Clean use a priority
Other
• increase renewable to
15% by 2020
•Build 30 GW nuclear
power
6
Key to Success of Adjustments
• Allow market force to work
• Cooperation
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