Transcript Overview of CO2 and Weed Biology

Climate Change, and Public Health: the
Botanical Perspective.
Lewis H. Ziska, USDA-ARS
Thanks to:
Linda Ford, MD American Lung Association, Omaha, NE
James Straka, PhD, Macalester College, St. Paul, MN
David Frenz, MD, the Bethesda Clinic, St. Paul, MN
Jonathan Patz, MD Johns Hopkins, Baltimore, MD
Dennis Gebhard, Multidata Inc., St. Paul, MN
Paul Epstein, MD, Harvard, Boston, MA
Maryland Department of Natural Resources, February 19, 2009
Atmospheric CO2
So what if CO2 goes up?
I. An indirect effect of rising carbon dioxide: warmer
temperatures.
Gas
%
Nitrogen (N2)
78.1
Oxygen (O2)
20.1
Argon (Ar)
0.93
Carbon Dioxide
(CO2)
0.04 up
to 0.100
Water (H2O)
0.05 to
1.00
No H2O and CO2? Surface temperature would be –18oC. With H2O and CO2? Surface temperature is 15oC.
H2O vs. CO2
Poles
Winter
latitude
Deserts
Equator
If water vapor is high, it will be the dominant warming gas….little effect of CO2
If water vapor is low, adding CO2 will increase the surface temperature.
Greenland is melting
Greenland ice loss rate doubled in last 10 yrs
CO2, warming and public health.
• Changes in range of insect or rodent
borne diseases.
• Changes in water or seafood borne
diseases.
• Increasing ground-level ozone, and
respiratory ailments.
• Contamination of drinking water due
to excessive flooding.
• Heat-related deaths / fewer cold
related.
So what if CO2 goes up?, Part II, direct impacts
Carbon dioxide is the source of carbon for photosynthesis, and consequently for 99% of all life.
CO2
Food, Glorious
Food!
Nutrients, H2O
CO2 + H2O + light  O2 + organic C + chemical energy
Plants are Important.
Plants are necessary for the flow of energy and carbon through
ecosystems. 90% of all living matter consists of plant life.
With the exception of a few subterranean organisms, if plants
did not exist, life would not exist.
Plant growth however is dependent on four physical inputs.
Any perturbation in these inputs will alter all living systems.
“People who imagined that life on earth consisted of animals moving against a green
background, seriously misunderstood what they were seeing. That green background
was busily alive. Plants grew, moved, twisted and turned, fighting for [resources]; and
they interacted continuously with animals—discouraging some with bark and thorns,
poisoning others, and feeding still others with pollen and seeds. It was a complex,
dynamic process…one which most people didn’t understand. “
Michael Crichton, Page 86, “Jurassic Park”
But isn’t more plant growth
desirable?
“We are living in an
increasingly lush
environment of plants and
animals as a result of the
carbon dioxide increase.
This is a wonderful and
unexpected gift from the
industrial revolution.”
WSJ
CO2 is a VERY smart molecule.
Green is not always good.
All life will be affected not only by temperature, but by the
increase in carbon dioxide of and by itself.
What are the implications for Weed Biology? Specifically:
 Crops and weeds
 Invasive weeds
 Public Health.
How can plants affect public health?
Some direct effects:
Allergies / Asthma:
 Contact dermatitis:
 Poison/Toxicology:

1. CO2, plants and allergies
Principle Fall Allergen
~35 million sufferers
Common ragweed.
Determining Ragweed Pollen
Production
Sampling pollen from ragweed catkins.
Response of common ragweed to CO2
•
g plant-1
400
Pollen Production
280 ppm
370 ppm
600 ppm
4.8 g
10.9 g*
20.5 g*
300
Antigen Amb a1 ELISA / mg protein
280 ppm
4490
370 ppm
5290
600 ppm
8180*
200
100
0
280
370
600
Chamber Study, USDA
Functional Plant Biology 27:893-898
Functional Plant Biology 32:667-670
Ragweed in real life
All this is “blue-sky” hypothetical &*^$%# anyway. It won’t
happen in real-life, and even if it does, temperature and carbon
dioxide effects are a long ways away.
10,000 feet on a mountaintop in Hawaii.
Mauna Loa, “Official” CO2 data.
Is the rise in CO2 the same
everywhere?

Change in average day-time
CO2 concentration (ppm)
from downtown Baltimore to
an organic (rural) farm.
500
455.5
402.2
386.2
400
300
Farm
Park
City
Is the increase in temperature the same?
23
21
20.7
19
18.6
• Change in average daily
temperature (oC) from
downtown Baltimore to an
organic (rural) farm (2002).
19.1
17
15
Farm
Park
City
Urbanization and climate change.
Daytime Carbon Dioxide (ppm)
Are these differences consistent?
Average daytime CO2 difference (urban-rural)
Location
2002 2003 2004 2005
___________________________________
Rural
381
373
380
386
Suburban
394
370
400
413
Urban
458
520
456
458
____________________________________
Daytime Air Temperature (oC)
Location
2002 2003 2004 2005
___________________________________
Location
2002 2003 2004 2005
___________________________________
Rural
19.6 18.0 19.0 19.0
Suburban
19.3 18.6 19.2 19.3
Urban
22.3 21.3 22.5 22.7
____________________________________
Change in season length (days)
2002 2003 2004 2005
___________________________________
Urban-Rural 36
41
52
39
____________________________________
120
100
CO2 differences
August, 2004
80
60
Average = 89.0+9.9
40
20
0
210
215
220
225
230
235
240
245
Day of year
What about other meteorological variables?
90
-1
8-h ozone average (nl O3 l of air)
Rural
25.1 22.5 24.4 25.3
Suburban
25.8 23.9 25.3 26.0
Urban
26.6 24.7 26.3 27.2
____________________________________
Night-time Temperature (oC)
140
80
70
60
8-h daytime ozone.
2004 season
50
40
30
20
10
0
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
Day of Year (2004)
Overall: Urban-induced increases in carbon dioxide, air
temperature and growing season are consistent with most IPCC
near-term scenarios. With the exception of N deposition, other
variables did not differ consistency, but N low relative to soil N.
And if it isn’t…Can we study the effects of climate change NOW?
Placing four 2x2 m2 plots
Near downtown Baltimore.
Use same soil and seed bank
in suburban and rural locations.
-3
Ragweed Pollen (grains m )
Got ragweed?
2006
800
Downtown, urban
County Park, semi-rural
Farm, rural site
600
400
200
0
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
Day of Year
Urban locale had longer growing season (milder winter), warmer
temperatures, and more carbon dioxide.
Allergenic pollen producers, Western Weeds:
Season: April through November
Ragweed
Giant Sagebrush
Russian thistle
Marsh elder
Yellow Dock
(A. atemissiifolia)
(Artemisia tridentata)
(Salsola kali)
(Iva species)
(Rumex crispus)
Pigweed
English plantain
Fireweed
Cocklebur
Lambsquarter
(Amaranthus retroflexus)
(Plantago lanceolata)
(Kochia scoparia)
(Xanthium strumarium, X. spinosa)
(Chenopodia album)
Allergenic pollen producers, Mid-Western Weeds:
Season: May through October
Ragweed
Giant Ragweed
Russian thistle
Marsh elder
Lambsquarter
(A. atemissiifolia)
(A. trifida)
(Salsola kali)
(Iva species)
(Chenopodia album)
Pigweed
English plantain
Fireweed
Cocklebur
(Amaranthus retroflexus)
(Plantago lanceolata)
(Kochia scoparia)
(Xanthium strumarium, X. spinosa)
Allergenic pollen producers, Southern Weeds:
Season: April through November
Ragweed
Giant Sagebrush
Marsh elder
Yellow Dock
(A. atemissiifolia)
(Artemisia tridentata)
(Iva species)
(Rumex crispus)
Pigweed
English plantain
Cocklebur
Lambsquarter
(Amaranthus retroflexus)
(Plantago lanceolata)
(Xanthium strumarium, X. spinosa)
(Chenopodia album)
Allergenic pollen producers, Northeast Weeds:
Season: May through September
Ragweed
Giant Ragweed
Marsh elder
Pigweed
Mugwort
(A. atemissiifolia)
(A trifida)
(Iva species)
(A. retroflexus)
(Artemisia vulgaris)
English plantain
Russian thistle
Cocklebur
Lambsquarter
(Plantago lanceolata)
(Salsola kali)
(Xanthium strumarium, X. spinosa)
(Chenopodia album)
Fungal decomposition of plants.
spores/g dry leaf tissue
Alternaria alternata has been associated with a
number of respiratory problems such as rhinitis,
asthma, allergic dermatitis and allergic sinusitis. The
spores are the cause of the allergic reactions.
16000000
14000000
12000000
10000000
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
-2000000
first run
second run
For timothy grass grown from 300-600 ppm CO2, rising
carbon dioxide levels results in reduced leaf N levels.
Initial data suggest that increased C:N ratios could
increase the rate of sporulation.
CO2 concentration
2. CO2, plants and contact dermatitis
Can rising CO2 alter plant based dermatitis?
The Duke University FACE Site: State of the Art.
Poison ivy at Duke Face ring.
Poison ivy plants grow faster at elevated CO2
10
370 ul/l
9
570 ul/l
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Poison ivy
allergenicity
Elevated CO2
Unsaturated:Saturated Cogeners
Ambient CO2
**
20
15
10
5
0
Ambient
Elevated
saturated
monoene
monoene
diene
triene
Duke University, USDA study, PNAS 103:9086-9089
3. CO2, plants and poison
Castor bean (Ricinus communis), produces ricin, one of the deadliest
poisons known to man. Increasing CO2 by 300 ppm results in a 34%
increase in photosynthesis (Grimer and Komor 1999).
Vanaja et al. (2008) reports large response to rising CO2.
How can plants affect public health?
Some indirect effects:
•Food and Nutrition.
•Medicines / Narcotics.
•Disease vector biology.
•Pesticide use.
Percent protein in flour
CO2 and human nutrition.
21
20
1903
19
1921
18
1965
17
16
15
200
1996
300
400
500
600
700
800
CO2 concentration
% Flour protein from wheat lines released during the 20th century.
Recent cooperative work with NIH indicates an increase in omega-3-fatty
acids in mung bean with rising CO2.
Temperature / Flowering
a
Dry bean
Peanut
75
50
25
0
23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44
Mean air temperature (°C)
100
Grain yield (g per plant)
Seed-set (%)
Rice
100
80
a
60
b
b
40
20
c
c
0
29/21
29/25 29/29
33/25
33/29
33/33
29/21
Day / Night temperature (oC)
Rice and temperature
33/25
36/29
Water and food security
Agriculture and
water
• Today, approximately 230,000
people were added to the
population. Three cereals, rice,
wheat and corn feed 50% of
that population. These cereals
in turn are heavily dependent on
irrigation.
100
80
60
40
20
0
Paddy
• ~80% of freshwater is used in
irrigation.
• How will we maintain food
supply with less water?
Remainder
Rice production
650
Rice
1980s: 3.1% per year
1990s: 1.4% per year
2000s: 0.8% per year
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
Wheat
1980s: 2.9% per year
1990s: 0.9% per year
2000s: 0.4% per year
Global wheat production (000 000 t)
Global rough rice production (000 000 t)
The “Big Three” at present.
600
500
400
300
200
1960
1970
1980
1990
YEAR
2000
2010
Global maize production (000 000 t)
Only maize has kept pace with population.
900
Maize
800
700
1980s: 2.2% per year
1990s: 2.5% per year
2000s: 3.5% per year
600
500
400
300
200
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Energy Independence?
YEAR
Maize is a heavy user of nitrogen fertilizer. This comes from
natural gas (Haber process, N2NH4NO3).
Russia: 47,570 billion ft3
Iran: 26,370 billion ft3
U.S.A.: 5,600
2a. CO2, plants and medicine
________________________________________________________________
Drug
Action/Clinical Use
Species
_________________________________________________________________
Acetyldigoxin
Cardiotonic
Digitalis lanata
Allyl isothiocyanate
Rubefacient
Brassica nigra
Atropine
Antichotinergic
Atropa belladonna
Berberine
Bacillary dysentery
Berberis vulgaris
Codeine
Analgesic, antitussive
Papaver somniferum
Danthron
Laxative
Cassia spp.
L-Dopa
Anti-Parkinson
Mucuna spp.
Digitoxin
Cardiotonic
Digitalis purpurea
Ephedrine
Antihistamine
Ephedra sinica
Galanthamine
Cholinesterase inhibitor
Lycoris squamigera
Kawain
Tranquilizer
Piper methysticum
Lapachol
Anti-cancer, anti-tumor
Tabebuia spp.
Ouabain
Cardiotonic
Strophanthus gratus
Quinine
Anti-malarial
Cinchona ledgeriana
Salicin
Analgesic
Salix alba
Taxol
Anti-tumor
Podophyllum peltatum
Vasicine
Cerebral stimulant
Vinca minor
Vincristine
Anti-leukemic agent
Catharanthus roseus
_________________________________________________________________
Approximately 15% of all current pharmaceuticals in developed countries are
derived solely from plants (85% in undeveloped countries).
Alkaloids derived from plants
Cocaine
Atropine
Caffeine
Nicotine
Codeine
Morphine
Scopolamine
Thebaine
Atropine and scopolamine
2b. CO2, plants and narcotics.
Effects unknown
Growth increases.
Anecdotal evidence
Papaver setigerum DC.
(Wild poppy)
Quantify growth and alkaloid
production to carbon dioxide
300 ppm
~1950
400 ppm
Current
500 ppm
600 ppm
~2050
~2090
2
Leaf area at maturity (cm )
Above ground biomass at maturity (g)
Papaver setigerum
25
20
15
P. setigerum is sensitive to even small
(100 ppm) increases in carbon dioxide.
10
5
0
2500
2000
1500
1000
Greatest relative stimulation has occurred
with recent (last few decades) CO2 increase.
500
0
300
400
500
600
CO2 concentration (µmol mol-1)
Averages
P-value
Variable
300
400
500
600
CO2 Effect
____________________________________________________________
Capsule No.
14.6
29.4
32.9
52.1
***
Capsule Wt. (g)
1.44
2.47
3.55
4.30
***
97
198
259
363
***
2.20
2.34
2.56
2.67
0.06
Latex (mg)
Morphine (%)
Concentration of other alkaloids did not increase with increasing CO2.
Alkaloid production (mg per plant)
B. Codeine
A. Morphine
15
a
10
a
b
b
c
5
r2 = 0.98
b
d
r2 = 0.81
c
0
a
D. Noscapine
C. Papaverine
40
30
b
a
20
a
r2 = 0.95
b
10
b
c
r2 = 0.99
c
0
300
400
500
600
300
400
500
600
CO2 concentration (µmol mol-1)
3-4 x increase in alkaloid production in wild poppy with recent and
projected CO2 increases. Accepted in Climatic Change
120
A.
294 µatm.
378 µatm.
690 µatm.
100
Nicotine production
80
Nicotine per plant (mg)
60
40
20
0
120
100
80
Nicotine Concentration
B.
Col 1 vs Col 2
Plot 1 Regr
Col 1 vs Col 4
Plot 2 Regr
Col 1 vs Col 6
Plot 3 Regr
60
40
294 ppm
378 ppm
690 ppm
4.7 µg g-1
4.4 µg g-1
3.6 µg g-1
20
0
25
30
35
40
45
Days after sowing (DAS)
50
55
3. CO2, plants and disease vectors
plants are not vectors per se, but:
Hanta virus
Nectar & pollen
CO2 / temperature
4. CO2, plants and pesticide usage.
Why can’t we just control these weeds?
Ambient CO2
Future CO2
As carbon dioxide increases, glyphosate efficacy is reduced
Canada thistle: Best of the worst.
Canada Thistle
a
Elevated / Ambient
3.0
2000
2001
a
*
2003
3.0
*
2.5
2.5
*
2.0
2.0
b
*
b
*
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
Shoot
Root
Shoot
Root
Shoot
3 years of field trials at +250 ppm above ambient.
Root
A synopsis of CO2 impacts on herbicide efficacy
A.
Quackgrass (death)
Red-root pigweed (death)
Lambsquarters (death)
1
0.5
0.5
0.0
Quackgrass
B.
Red-root pigweed
1.0
Lambsquarters
1.5
Canada thistle
2.0
1
0.0
Canada thistle
Growth rate (g / day)
1.0
Canada thistle
1.5
Canada thistle
2.0
Efficacy is reduced in a number of
studies. The basis for the reduction is
not entirely known. However, if more
pesticides are needed to kill weeds, then
more trace chemicals are likely in the
environment.
Climate change, plants and public health
Direct Effects
Indirect Effects
Allergies
Contact dermatitis
Toxicology
Nutrition
Medicine
Spread of disease vectors
Increased pesticide use.
What is USDA doing?
• In the last 6 years have lost one full time scientist,
and two three technicians.
• Budget cut every year for the last 6 years. The new
farm bill has no money for studying climate
change and agriculture. No stimulus funding.
• National Program 204, Global warming and
agriculture was eliminated in May of 2008. (although
some work may continue)