Transcript Workforce Aging in a New Economy: US context

The US Information Technology
Workforce in the New Economy
December 6, 2003
WANE International Team Meeting
Overview of the session
Introduction / Context
 Defining the information technology sector
 IT workforce demographics
 Outsourcing & immigration issues
 Open Discussion

The changing workforce
Most of the projected growth in the US
labor force between 2000 and 2050 will be
composed of workers aged 55 and over.
 Workers aged 55 and over will account for a
larger share of the US labor force (12.9% in
2000; 18.8% in 2050)

Source: Toosi, Mitra. “A century of change: the US labor force, 1950-2050.” Monthly Labor Review, May
2002, Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Population and labor force annual growth
rates, 1950 to 2000, and projected, 2000 to 2050
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-30 2030-40 2040-50
Population growth
Labor force growth
Source: Adapted from tabular data in Toosi, Mitra. “A century of change: the U.S. labor force,
1950-2050.” Monthly Labor Review, May 2002, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Growth in the labor force aged 45-64 between 2000
and 2010
Projected, in thousands
65 and over
1,242
7,230
55 to 64
6,316
45 to 54
35 to 44
-3,849
25 to 34
16 to 24
2,553
3,366
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Women’s labor force growth will continue to outpace
men’s
Percent change
Women
Men
44.2
35.7
24.9
20.0
12.3
10.4
1960-70
1970-80
1980-90
15.5
15.1
9.0
9.3
1990-2000
2000-2010
(projected)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
White, non-Hispanics will remain the largest group
in the labor force
Percent of labor force
73
69
2000
2010 (projected)
11
13
11
12
5
White, nonHispanic
Hispanic
Black, nonHispanic
6
Asian and
other, nonHispanic
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
What is ‘information
technology’ anyway?
Computer equipment’s and software’s rising share of
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Percent
1990
2000
2010 (projected)
29
16
15
12
5
2
Computer equipment
Software
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The 10 fastest growing industries are serviceproducing
Percent change, projected 2000-2010
86
Computer and data processing
64
Residential care
57
Health services, nec.
51
49
Cable and pay television
Personnel supply
Warehousing and storage
45
Water and sanitation
45
Veterinary
45
Landscaping and horticulture
44
Miscellaneous business
44
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Eight industries account for half of projected 20002010 job growth
Thousands of wage and salary jobs
1,913
Personnel supply services
1,805
Computer and data processing services
1,606
Retail trade, except eating and drinking places
1,486
Eating and drinking places
1,245
Offices of health practitioners
State and local government education
Miscellaneous business services
Construction
1,076
1,004
825
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Eight of the fastest growing occupations are
computer-related
Percent change, projected 2000-2010
100
Computer software engineers, applications
97
Computer support specialists
90
Computer software engineers, systems software
82
Network and computer systems administrators
77
Network systems and data communications analysts
67
Desktop publishers
66
Database administrators
62
Personal and home care aides
Computer systems analysts
Medical assistants
60
57
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The information technology sector

What is ‘information technology’ or IT?
– What companies are part of the IT industrial
sector?
– As computers are so prevalent, how do we
distinguish IT workers from other workers?
– Should we characterize IT as service producing or
goods producing or both?
– What other industries have substantial overlap with
IT? (e.g., telecommunications, information science)
Selected Definitions

American Electronics Association (AEA)
– Industries are classified as ‘high tech’ if they
are considered a “maker/creator of technology,
whether it be in the form of products,
communications, or services,” (Platzer, Novak
& Kazmierczak, 2003)
– Includes manufacturing, communication
services, and software and tech services
Selected Definitions

U.S. Census Bureau
– The ‘information sector’ is comprised of
“establishments engaged in the following
processes: (a) producing and distributing
information and cultural products, (b) providing
the means to transmit or distribute these
products as well as data or communications,
and (c) processing data”
– Defined as service producing
“High Tech” and “Information”
overlap
'high tech'
only
33%
52%
15%
Both 'high
tech' and
'information'
'information'
only
Selected Definitions

Freeman and Aspray (1999)
– A company is part of the ‘IT’ industry if its
main purpose is designing, producing or using
computer-based systems
– Uses company by company judgments; requires
a definition of ‘main purpose’
IT workers

“Nine out of ten IT workers are found in
banks, insurance companies, manufacturing
plants or other non-IT businesses” (ITAA,
2003)
– Occupations
– Self-Definition
– “IT Workers” vs. “IT-Enabled Workers”
Distinguishing IT Workers from ITEnabled Workers
IT-Enabled Workers
Business / Industry Knowledge
Marketing
VP
CFO
CIO
Product
Developer
IT Workers
Business
Project
Mngr
Application
Developer
CTO
SW Project
Manager
Bank
Teller
System
Admin
Call
Consultant
Information Technology Knowledge
OS
Developer
IT Workforce Demographics
IT’s image

IT has an image of being youthful, male and
white
– Attitudes toward older workers least positive re
adaptation to new technology
– Access / social barriers to math and science
education and related jobs

IT will need to retain and recruit other
groups of workers to meet workforce needs
Age and IT

Older workers are underrepresented in the
IT workforce.
– Workers over the age of 45 comprise 31.8% of
the overall US workforce and only 25.4% of the
IT workforce.
– Workers over 55 constitute 11.7% of the overall
workforce but only 6.8% of the IT workforce
(ITAA, 1997).
Gender and IT
Though the participation rate of women in
the US workforce is increasing, the
participation rate of women in IT is
decreasing in the overall IT workforce
 1996
2002
41%
34.9%
 Among computer professionals, only one
out of five is a woman.

Source: ITAA (2003) and Swanson and Keller (2000)
Gender and IT, cont.



Women are overrepresented in low-status IT
jobs (i.e. data entry keyers – 85%; computer
operators 53%)
Women are underrepresented in high-status IT
jobs (i.e. electrical and electronic engineers, 9%;
computer system analysts and scientists 27%;
computer programmers 27%)
On average, women’s earnings as compared to
men’s in the IT field are better than in the general
occupational structure (less pronounced
disadvantage).
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (2002)
Race / ethnicity and IT
90
83.5
77.7
80
White
70
African
American
60
50
Hispanic
40
30
20
10
10.9 12.2
8.2
6.3
11.8
Asian
4
0
US Workforce
IT Workforce
Source: ITAA; BLS
Race and Ethnicity

Similar to patterns for women, racial and
ethnic minorities are:
– overrepresented in low-status IT jobs (i.e. data entry
keyers 16% for African Americans 12.6% for Hispanics)
– and underrepresented in high-status IT jobs (i.e
electrical and electronic engineers 5.9% for African
Americans and 4% for Hispanics).

This situation is compounded by the fact that
minorities are less likely to attend college or
graduate school than women or white males.
Source: ITAA; Freeman and Aspray
Undergraduate Degrees in Computer Science,
Engineering and Engineering related technologies,
by percent 1999-2000
68
70
African
Americans
Hispanics
60
50
40
Asians
30
Native
Americans
Non-residents
20
10
12
7
5
7
1
Whites
0
Degrees conferred by race
Source: ITAA
The structure of the IT workforce


As the IT industry grows, recruiting and retaining
older workers, women and minorities will become
increasingly important given the changing
workforce
Systematic research on the barriers to recruitment
and retention needs to be conducted (e.g.,
workplace & industry culture, age discrimination,
employer attitudes)
Complicating Factors:
Outsourcing and Immigration
Outsourcing
12% of IT companies have opened up
overseas operations, with large IT
companies being the most likely to make
this move
 22% of large IT companies surveyed said
that they had already moved work offshore

Source: ITAA (2003)
Immigration
North Carolina Electronics and Information
Technologies Association [NCEITA])
indicated that over one-third of survey
respondents had up to 10% of their
employees on work visas
 Employers justified this by citing the
shortage in qualified IT personnel and
emphasizing their goals of getting “the
best” person for the job.

Future research should focus on…
The intersection of gender, and age.
 The intersection of race/ethnicity and age.
 Role of outsourcing / immigration in
solving recruitment & retention issues
 Methods of encouraging employers to
invest in a more diverse IT workforce;
inclusive of older workers, women and
racial and ethnic minorities.

Potential Points for Discussion

Sampling (exclusion criteria)
– Organizational Age and/or Stability
» Management Turnover
» Infrastructure
» Age threshold
– Size
» Awareness of size distribution
– Type
» IT vs. IT enabled
» Prevalence of non-standard work arrangements
» Ratio of professional to non-professional employees
Open Discussion
www.aging.unc.edu
Program on Older Workers and Retirement
International Project: www.wane.ca