Transcript American Politics

Voting and Elections
October 29, 2007
Republican Candidates (2008)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York City
Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas
Duncan Hunter, U.S. Representative
Alan Keyes, former U.S. Ambassador to the United
Nations Economic and Social Council
John McCain, U.S. Senator from Arizona
Ron Paul, U.S. Representative from Texas and 1988
Libertarian Presidential nominee
Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
Tom Tancredo, U.S. Representative from Colorado
Fred Thompson, former U.S. Senator from Tennessee
Democratic Candidates (2008)
• Joe Biden, U.S. Senator from Delaware
• Hillary Clinton, U.S. Senator from New York and former
First Lady
• Christopher Dodd, U.S. Senator from Connecticut
• John Edwards, former U.S. Senator from North Carolina
and 2004 Democratic Vice Presidential candidate
• Mike Gravel, former U.S. Senator from Alaska
• Dennis Kucinich, U.S. Representative from Ohio
• Barack Obama, U.S. Senator from Illinois
• Bill Richardson, Governor of New Mexico and former
Secretary of Energy
Who decides who the party
nominee will be?
• In the past, party activists made the
decision at the national convention
• Now (since the 1970s) voters decide
through caucuses and primaries
• These contests determine how many
delegates a candidate receives.
• The rules play a role in influencing what
types of candidates will win
Caucus
• A meeting of candidate supporters
• Democratic caucuses allow any registered
Democratic to participate
• Republican caucuses are less open; some
limit participation to party officials and
workers
• Systems used include winner-take-all and
PR
Primaries
• Elections to decide nominees
• Closed primaries
– Only party members can vote
• Open primaries
– Any registered voter can select a party’s
primary and vote in it
Shorter Primaries
• Schedule for the 2008
Presidential Primaries
Iowa and NH can help the Underdog
• Underdogs (outsiders) have seen their
support rise from an early win in Iowa and
NH.
– Carter in 1976 (up 12 percent)
– Hart in 1984 (up 27 percent)
– Tsongas in 1992 (up 26 percent)
– Buchanan in 1996 (up 20 percent)
– McCain in 2000 (up 15 percent)
Expectations in NH
Source: NH Poll, American Research Group
http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/
Voters in New Hampshire
Impact of New Hampshire Primary
Front loading
• 70% of all delegates are chosen before the end
of March
• Benefits the front runner
• Benefits the candidate who can raise the bulk of
the money before the nomination process
• Increases the importance of the “invisible
primary”—the year prior to the official nomination
season when candidates raise money
Why do early primaries play such a
large role?
• Importance of momentum
• Those who are expected to win receive
more news coverage and more
contributions
• This makes it easier for front runners to
win and more difficult for followers to catch
up.
Consequences
• Carter was the only candidate to win the
Iowa caucus and go on to win the
nomination (prior to 2004)
• In every year since 1980 the front-running
candidate who led in the last poll
conducted before Iowa still ended up
winning the nomination.
• Compact schedule (front loading) can kill
the momentum from New Hampshire
Deck is stacked against outsiders,
under dogs
• Half of the Republican delegates awarded
after the first six weeks.
• News coverage and public interest fades
shortly after the primary season begins
Example of the Consequences of
Front-loading in 2000
1,034 delegates
needed to win