Transcript Bond Price Volatility

Food Security in Sudan
Introduction
Sudan with a total area of 1.882 millions
square kilometers
with an estimated population of 33.419
million people
The cultivable area is estimated at more
than 80 million hectares, of which only
20% is cultivated
Crop production is practiced under three
main farming systems
About 90 percent of the cultivated area is
rain-fed
60% of food production comes from the
large-scale sector
The agricultural sector also has livestock,
fisheries and forestry as key sub-sectors
Sudan has the second largest livestock
population in Africa after Ethiopia
 Agriculture characterised by subsistence farming,
shifting cultivation and livestock production
 Cereals alone provide nearly 53% of the daily
energy supply to the population
 production of the staple food crops in 2010
declined considerably by nearly 42% from an
average of 4.9 million metric tons in 2006-2009
to only 2.9 million metric tons(CEREAL AVAILABILITY
STUDY, 2010)
 Reasons provided for the decrease in production,
including unfavourable weather and rainfall
conditions, management problems related to
irrigation water, decrease in fertilizer use, and
unavailability of improved seed verities, etc.
Table 1: Sorghum Production Trend in Sudan (2006-2010)
(Source: Sudan MoAF)
Year
Production (MT)
Irrigated
rain-fed
Traditional
Total
Mechaniz
ed
Yield (MT/Ha)
Irrigated
rain-fed
Traditional
Total
Mechaniz
ed
2006
808000
1877000
1642000
4327000
1.9
0.5
0.7
0.7
2007
1201000
1868000
1164000
4233000
2.3
0.6
0.7
0.8
2008
822000
1064000
1191000
3077000
2.2
0.4
0.5
0.5
2009
1061000
1276000
928000
3265000
2.7
0.4
0.4
0.6
2010
690000
622000
670000
1982000
1.8
0.2
0.3
0.4
Average (2006-2009)
973000
1521250
1231250
3725500
2.3
0.5
0.6
0.6
Share % (2006-2009)
26.1
40.8
33.0
100.0
2010 Compared to Avg. (%)
70.9
40.9
54.4
53.2
78.0
53.2
62.7
65.2
Crop Share of Total Prod. (%)
62.7
96.5
68.6
75.6
Table 2: Cereal Production Trend in Sudan (2006-2010)
Source: Sudan MoAF
Year
Production (MT)
Irrigated
rain-fed
Traditional
Mechanized
Yield (MT/Ha)
Total
Irrigated
rain-fed
Traditional
Mechanized
Total
2006
1228000
1938000
2196000
5362000
2
0.5
0.5
0.6
2007
1873500
1939000
18130000
5625500
2.3
0.6
0.5
0.7
2008
1408000
1900000
17150000
4213000
2.1
0.4
0.4
0.6
2009
1700000
1341000
14590000
4500000
2.2
0.4
0.3
0.5
2010
1092000
663000
11010000
2856000
1.8
0.3
0.3
0.4
Average
1552375
1577000
1795750
4925125
2.1
0.5
0.4
0.6
31.5
32.0
36.5
100
70.3
42
61.3
58
82.7
54.6
65.3
67.3
(2006-2009)
Share %
(2006-2009)
2010
Compared to
Avg. (%)
Table 3: Cereal Production in 2010
Net domestic production available for consumption MT
State
Total
Sorghum
Millet
Wheat
Northern
12817
0
109050
121868
River Nile
32919
0
21503
54422
Khartoum
10362
0
11471
21834
Gezira
330807
9356
180955
512697
Sennar
117955
12803
7098
137856
White Nile
240082
17765
25709
283557
Blue Nile
95267
10249
0
105517
Gedarif
20301
6352
0
209353
Kassala
130537
8
0
130529
Red sea
2691
2825
0
5516
North Kordofan
49793
83674
0
133466
West Kordofan
0
0
0
0
South Kordofan
325531
26054
0
357585
North Darfur
2425
15372
0
17797
West Darfur
27544
44711
1733
73988
South Darfur
168432
175891
1733
346056
Total
1751992
433134
359252
2544378
Table 4: Cereal Consumption Requirement in 2010
State
Consumption requirements MT
Total
Sorghum
Millet
Wheat
Northern
49640
10200
37400
97240
River Nile
77672
15960
58520
152152
Khartoum
485377
99735
365695
950807
Gezira
317769
65295
239416
622479
Sennar
107529
22095
81015
210639
White Nile
134831
27705
101585
264121
Blue Nile
60371
12405
45485
118261
Gedarif
142934
29370
107690
279994
Kassala
134320
27600
101200
263120
Red sea
54885
11175
40975
106535
North Kordofan
124173
25515
93555
243243
West Kordofan
93805
19275
70675
183755
South Kordofan
91761
18855
69135
179751
North Darfur
141036
28980
106260
276276
West Darfur
142277
29233
107195
278707
South Darfur
273677
56235
206195
536107
Total
2431557
499635
1831995
4763187
Table 5: Cereal Demand and Supply in 2010
State
Cereal demand/supply gap MT
Total
Gap/supply as% of
requirement
Sorghum
Millet
Wheat
Northern
(36823)
(10200)
71650
24628
25
River Nile
(44753)
(15960)
(37017)
(97730)
(64)
Khartoum
(475015)
(99735)
(354224)
(928973)
(98)
Gezira
13038
(64360)
(58460)
(109782)
(18)
Sennar
10426
(9292)
(73917)
(72783)
(35)
White Nile
105251
(9940)
(75876)
19436
7
Blue Nile
34896
(2156)
(45485)
(12744)
(11)
Gedarif
60067
(23018)
(107690)
(70641)
(25)
Kassala
(3783)
(27608)
(101200)
(132591)
(56)
Red sea
(51694)
(8350)
(40975)
(101019)
(95)
North Kordofan
(74380)
58159
(93555)
(109777)
(45)
West Kordofan
(93805)
(19275)
(70675)
(183755)
(100)
South Kordofan
233770
7199
(69135)
171834
96
North Darfur
(138611)
(13608)
(106260)
(258479)
(94)
West Darfur
(114733)
18476
(105462)
(204719)
(73)
South Darfur
(105245)
119656
(204462)
(190051)
(35)
Total
(679865)
(66501)
(1472743)
(2218809)
(47)
Problems & dimensions of food insecurity:
different conflicts:(damaging of the social and
economic fabric, destruction of the scarce infrastructure,
displacement, weakening of institutions…etc.)
natural disasters (drought and floods)
(displacements and high livestock mortality)
lack of infrastructure: (limiting marketing possibilities
with food that cannot be moved from surplus to food deficit areas)
 limited access to basic services
Insecurity in neighbouring countries
socio-psychological factors: (lack of innovativeness
to find alternative sources of income, lack of personal savings, sheer
laziness and resort to unproductive activities and a host of other
unbecoming behavioural factors
)
 bad governance
out of date census and baseline data
duplications and lack of coordination
Major Challenges & priorities:
crucial information gaps (qualitative and
quantitative);
 poor access to information by food security
stakeholders;
 poor linkages between information on short
term/transient food insecurity and
structural/long term food insecurity;
 Disconnection between policy,
programming and planning and food
security information and analysis.
duplications of mandates and functions and
poor coordination
weak linkages between Federal Ministries
and the State Ministries;
weak institutions not in the position to
deliver the expected services;
determination of governments to make real
change in implementing policies and
strategies;
ensuring proper planning in the use of
resources in viable investments,
institutions, infrastructure, storage
facilities, and enhancing productivity;
mainstreaming food security concerns in
the ongoing Poverty Reduction Strategy
process
Possible Interventions:
the need to put in place social protection
measures to protect the most vulnerable;
 Understanding who they are, how many they are and where
they are through appropriate information systems
 Understanding causes of vulnerability and their livelihoods
basis and coping strategies through an appropriate information
and analytical tools
 Design and implement social protection measures: food aid,
traditional safety net systems (e.g. religious based- Zakat),
food prices subsidies and control, support to households with
HIV/AIDS affected members
 Design and implement livelihoods rehabilitation and
strengthening measures: inputs and productive assets
distribution, quick impact community based reintegration
programmes, etc.
 Reduce the risks of shocks through the strengthening of early
warning, disaster prevention and preparedness measures, and
by minimising the risks of conflict over resources
 Monitoring vulnerabilities
the support to smallholder (traditional)
agriculture and rural livelihoods as mean to
address rural poverty(Poverty reduction
through the support to smallholder
agricultural production and rural people
livelihood);
 Improved livelihoods analysis of food insecure through a
more systematic use of livelihoods frameworks of
analyses
 Improved agricultural vital information basis: markets
prices and access, production, rainfall, land use pattern
 Appropriate food security, livelihoods and pro-poor
policies and programmes design monitoring and
evaluation
 A substantial increase and related monitoring of pro poor
rural investments
the sustainable and equitable management
of natural resources.
 Natural resources surveys and mapping: proper planning
will require proper information land tenure and land use,
pastures availability, livestock routes, water availability
and rights, forest resources etc.
 Appropriate policies designed: land, forestry, rangelands,
water, etc.
 Prevention and resolution mechanisms for conflicts over
resources as for instance in the conflicts between
pastoralists and farmers and between returnees and
resident population
 Environmental considerations mainstreamed in food
security and livelihoods support interventions
Transformation of traditional crop and
livestock sectors based on a comprehensive
integrated package of rural development
programmes;
Introducing extensive institutional and
management reforms of public irrigated
schemes to revitalise their productivity and
enhance farmers’ incomes;
Land tenure reform and appropriate
policies for sustained natural resource
management in the semi-mechanised largescale rainfed schemes.
Provision of improved seeds
Research and technology transfer
Improved soil and water conservation
practices
Control of crop and livestock pests and
diseases
Facilitate access to credit through the
establishment of rural credit institutions
under the supervision of the formal
banking system
Construction of feeder roads linking
producing areas to market
Building a strategic grain reserve coupled
with a viable drought and early warning
system
Provision of primary health care and
education services and improved and
sustainable clean and hygienic water
supplies for both domestic use and
livestock.
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