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HDNSP – SSN team, May 2010 SPA Motivation and background 2 Need to build empirical evidence for the SN case Multiple efforts; databases of programs For protection and promotion/WB web: www.worldbank.org/sp Program level (WB supported); Database of public spending on Social policy (70+ countries) UNDP Poverty Center: www.undp-povertycentre.org Chronic poverty research center (ver. 4) www.chronicpoverty.org/publications/details/social-assistance-in-developing-countries-database-version-4-0 These sources provide program-level information Programs are presented regardless of size Different methodologies (not comparable) Impact on beneficiaries, but not on national level outcomes Do not usually assess coverage Do not look at systems SPA Objective 3 Provide nation-wide assessment focusing on he social protection system and its elements the incidence of spending (coverage, amounts) and impact using official representative household survey data, processed into a comparable and harmonized datasets. Benchmark safety protection programs across countries and across time. Provide open and easy to access data for policymakers, civil society, World Bank staff and other stakeholders. Initiate the dialogue with statistical offices for improving household data collection on social protection programs. Is SPA unique? 4 There is no other source of similar indicators for the developing world With the same coverage Archived and accessible Focused on cutting edge techniques to assess program performance (ADePT tool) For richer countries Luxembourg Income Study projects offers similar type of capabilities LIS hosts data from 200+ surveys from 36 countries, for some covering 1970-2008 (www.lisproject.org/techdoc.htm) Poverty lines use relative poverty to allow comparisons (% of median) Detailed list of social transfers and taxes Facility to conduct analysis, produce tables or download key figures Network of researchers using harmonized data: over 500 papers What is ADePT? 5 Website: www.worldbank.org/adept Software platform for Automated Economic Analysis Free, stand-alone program available to everybody Accepts individual- and household-level data in Stata and SPSS format. Uses Stata numerical engine for computations. Minimal data preparation required from the users Extensive diagnostics of possible problems with the data ADePT is a tool for simulations and sensitivity analysis Intuitive user-friendly interface Tested on 100’s of datasets from more than 50 countries ADePT Poverty: Released – June 2007 ADePT Labor: Released – November 2007 ADePT Gender: Released – November 2008 ADePT Social Protection: Released – June 2009 ADePT Education: Released – September 2009 ADePT Health: Released – December 2009 ADePT Inequality: Planned Release – Spring 2010 ADePT Targeting: Planned Release – Summer 2010 ADePT MAPS: Released – November 2008 ….. ADePT: From data to report SPA in LAC 7 Most recent household survey data available at CEDLAS (Centro de Estudios Distributivos Laborales y Sociales) with information on household income and social protection programs Argentina 2006 Bolivia 2006 Brazil 2006 Chile 2006 Colombia 2003 Costa Rica 2008 Rep Dominicana 2007 Ecuador 2008 El Salvador 2005 (2007) Guatemala 2006 Honduras 2007 Jamaica 2006 Mexico 2008 Nicaragua 2005 Panama 2008 Paraguay 2007 Peru 2008 Suriname 1999 Uruguay 2008 Venezuela 2006 More to come SPA in ECA 8 Most recent household survey data available at ECA targeting data base and ECAPOV) with information on household income and social protection programs Armenia 2008 Kosovo 2006 Ukraine 2006 Azerbaijan 2007 Kyrgyzstan 2006 More to come Belarus 2008 Latvia 2008 Bosnia 2007 Lithuania 2004 Bulgaria 2007 Macedonia 2005 Georgia 2007 Poland 2005 Hungary 2004 Romania 2008 Kasakhstan 2007 Serbia 2007 SPA in AFR, SAS, MENA and EAP 9 Most recent household survey data available collected from AFR, MENA, EAP and SAS with information on household income and social protection programs AFR MENA EAP Kenya 2005 Egypt 2008 Vietnam 2002 Mauritius 2005 Jordan 2003 More to come More to come Morocco 2001 Yemen 2005 West Bank 2007 SAS Bangladesh 2002 Pakistan 2005 More to come More to come Actual Without SP Ecuador Colombia Brazil Panama Chile Mexico Peru Kenya VietNam Morocco Yemen Mauritius Jordan Latvia Bulgaria Pakistan Kyrgyzstan Poland Bangladesh Egypt Ukraine Armenia 0 .05 .1 .15 .2 .25 .3 .35 .4 GINI .45 .5 .55 .6 .65 .7 SPA Impact of SP on inequality 10 SPA - Gini Inequality with and without Social Protection Actual Without SI Egypt Actual Without SA Ecuador Colombia Brazil Panama Chile Mexico Peru Kenya VietNam Morocco Yemen Mauritius Jordan Latvia Bulgaria Pakistan Kyrgyzstan Poland Bangladesh 0 .05 .05 .1 .1 .15 .15 .2 .2 .25 .25 .3 .3 .4 .35 .4 GINI .35 .45 .45 .5 .5 .55 .55 .6 .6 .65 .65 .7 .7 SPA - Gini Inequality with and without Social Insurance Ukraine Armenia Ecuador Colombia Brazil Panama Chile Mexico Peru Kenya VietNam Morocco Yemen Mauritius Jordan Latvia Bulgaria Kyrgyzstan Poland Egypt Ukraine Armenia 0 GINI SPA Impact on inequality (SI vs SA) 11 SPA - Gini Inequality with and without Social Assistance SPA Cross country analysis 12 Benefit incidence of Social Assistance programs SPA Metadata AFR EAP ECA 28% 29% 22% 32% 23% LAC 23% MENA SAS 24% 29% 36% 21% 25% q1 Source: HDNSP-SSN team and SPA metadata 25% q2 q3 q4 q5 SPA standard output (ADePT SP) 13 Sample and population size of survey data used Average transfer values by program (and all combined) Coverage (% of population in beneficiary households) Distribution of benefits (% accruing to each decile) Targeting accuracy (exclusion and inclusion errors) Relative incidence Generosity (% of income covered by program) Impacts on poverty and inequality (by program and all combined) Undercoverage, leakage and targeting differential Overlap across programs Coady-Grosh-Hoddinott indicator Cost-benefit ratios Pakistan Dominican Rep Morocco Venezuela Kenya Bolivia West Bank and Gaza Suriname VietNam Yemen Paraguay Colombia Argentina Mexico Bangladesh Mauritius El Salvador Jordan Kosovo Kyrgyzstan Kasakhstan Guatemala Ecuador Peru Bosnia Brazil Macedonia Costa Rica Georgia Armenia Lithuania Honduras Uruguay Serbia Nicaragua Ukraine Poland Bulgaria Hungary Belarus Panama Latvia Egypt Chile 0 20 40 %60 80 100 SPA: Discovering gaps 14 SPA - Coverage rate of Social Protection programs Source: HDNSP-SSN team and SPA metadata VietNam Jordan El Salvador Kosovo Kenya West Bank and Gaza Guatemala Kyrgyzstan Dominican Rep Honduras Yemen Morocco Belarus Uruguay Chile Latvia Egypt Kasakhstan Bosnia Ukraine Lithuania Ecuador Suriname Panama Bulgaria Macedonia Poland Armenia Argentina Mauritius Pakistan Mexico Hungary Nicaragua Costa Rica Bolivia Georgia Serbia Colombia 0 20 40 %60 80 100 SPA: Sorting out definitions 15 SPA - Generosity of Social Assistance programs among poorest 20% Source: HDNSP-SSN team and SPA metadata SI SA Ecuador Panama Poland Chile Mexico Bulgaria Latvia Pakistan Colombia Ukraine Kenya Armenia Mauritius Yemen Morocco Egypt Kyrgyzstan Jordan VietNam 0 .05 .1 .15 Cost-Benefit ratio .2 .25 SPA benchmarking SI/SA 16 SPA - Cost-Benefit ratio of Social Insurance and Social Assistance Uses of SPA 17 Social protection system of a country/region at a glance In terms of overall coverage of the population/poor By its elements/ overlaps/ gaps Benchmarking whole systems and programs In terms of coverage /incidence In terms of impact on poverty/inequality In terms of cost –benefit ratios Identifying data gaps In terms of programs/countries SPA Next steps 18 Process of review with regional teams: expanding coverage of countries and time periods!!! Dialogue / partnership with LIS to extend the coverage to high-income countries Cross-validation with administrative data Add simulations capability ….. to mimic program rules (selective based on country data) (?) to compare effect of the crisis with and without SP SPA Welcoming cooperation 19 If we agree on the need to build a joint empirical basis for SP advocacy we can consider several options: Joint data platform Sharing and validating results Target specific groups (children, disabled) in the set of indicators Jointly producing and collecting data Joint use/development of software platform ADEPT surveys: it is a tool adoptable to any survey and can be customized It can greatly harmonize and streamline production of a rich set of indicators based on available surveys It informs collection of new data (obtain rich set of results by including 3-5 new questions into the standard household surveys) Data is a public good 20 We look forward to practical ideas for cooperation Thank you!