Transcript Pecan Planting Trends in Georgia

Pecan Production Trends for the
Future
Tom Stevenson
Orchard Management Services
Albany, GA
Arizona, Western New Mexico
Arizona
5300 acres less than 7 years old
4500 acres intended to be planted by 2018
5000 acres planned for 2018-2022
Western New Mexico
4000 acres intended over next two years in Animas Valley
HIGH DENSITY PLANTINGS, PLANS FOR HEDGING, IRRIGATION & GOOD MANAGEMENT
18,800 Acres with some hitting yields of 2,000 pounds per acre in the 6th year of production
18,800 acres with an average of 2,500 pounds per acre by 2025 = 47,000,000 pounds of
new production.
Florida and Alabama
1: Some new plantings over past 5 years but numbers difficult to get.
2: Interviews with growers indicated possibly 2000 acres in total.
3: By 2025 an additional 3,000,000 pounds at 1,500 pounds per acre.
Georgia
New Plantings:
1:
2:
3:
4:
5:
20,000 new acres planted in last 5 years. (2009 through 2013)
5,000 acres inter-planted, increasing the density of trees in older, widely spacing orchards.
Through 2013, 165,000 total acres of trees in Georgia.
Nursery production projections indicate 5,000 acres planted in 2014 and 6,000 acres planned in 2015.
2025 could arrive with 36,000 new acres in Georgia with an age of 10 to 17 years of age.
Higher production will be achieved on these acres because of:
1:
2:
3:
4:
5:
6:
Higher tree density per acre
All planted with irrigation
Plans for hedging to maintain tree density, also allowing for increased light and better disease(scab) control.
Much improved cultural programs for water, fertilizer, fruit thinning, hedging, etc.
New varieties that are larger nuts, earlier harvest, more precocious, higher yielding in pounds and meat.
A new generation of growers with enthusiasm, intelligence and the capital to do it right.
No longer a Secondary Crop:
1: Older orchards are being irrigated with only 20% of the state acreage being dry land now.
2: The average crop of 800 pounds per acre (112,000,000 pounds) will increase dramatically.
3: The new high density plantings are achieving 2,000 pounds plus per acre in 10-12 years.
4: The older trees will increase their average to 1,400 pounds per acre over those same years.
By 2025 I estimate the average crop for Georgia will increase by
156,000,000 pounds, from 112,000,000 pounds to 268,000,000.
HEDGING IN GEORGIA
Newly Planted Trees by Cultivar 2012
Dr. Lenny Wells-University of Georgia
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
27%
All Nurseries
University of Georgia
Production Trends 731,000
800,000
681,000
700,000
Number of trees
Dr. Patrick Conner
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
252,500
200,000
100,000
0
2012
2014
Dr. Patrick 2015
Conner
Estimated Production increases by
2025
Arizona and Western New Mexico>> 47,000,000 NEW POUNDS
Alabama and Florida>>>>>>>>>>>>> 3,000,000 NEW POUNDS
Georgia>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 156,000,000 NEW POUNDS
TOTAL=206,000,000 NEW
And we have not come to George Ray’s part of the program yet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
A United Industry
If we are to support the needed research and marketing efforts
we will need to absorb this new production, both here and
abroad, the only way to effectively do that is with a marketing
order and mandatory collection of an assessment. This will allow
us to have enough money to pursue the kinds of promotion,
domestic and foreign, shelled and in shell, that we need. The
marketing order that Mike Adams and U.S. Pecan is proposing is
the only opportunity to move forward on an industry wide scale.
I urge all segments of the industry to put the decades of division
aside and join forces in a this effort to allow all of us to continue
with our new growth and reinvigoration of the pecan industry.
We owe it to our sons and daughters(and ourselves). Please
offer support in any manner possible. Thank you.
Tom Stevenson