Transcript Wired For War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the

COMP3851: Computers and Society
Adam Skillen
03-Dec-09

Senior Fellow and Director of the 21st Century
Defense Initiative at the Brookings Institution

Has been quoted in every major U.S. newspaper and
news magazine


Delivered talks at venues ranging from the U.S.
Congress and the Pentagon to over 40 universities
around the world.
Books:
• Corporate Warriors
• Children at War
• Wired For War
 The
drive to create artificial organisms and
thinking machines dates back thousands of
years:
• 1000 BCE Antikythera Computer: calculates position
of Sun, Moon, Planets. First analogue computer.
• 350 BCE Archytas of Tarentum: steam powered
pigeon.
• 1745 CE Vaucanson’s Duck: artificial duck able to
digest food. Turned out to be a fraud, however
Vaucanson went on the create an automated loom
which made use of punched cards.
 1822
CE Babbage designs first
programmable computer.
 1898
CE Tesla demos a remote controlled
motorboat.
 WWI
• Electric Dog – followed lantern light
• Land Torpedo – remote controlled armoured tractor
• Kettering Bug – remote controlled plane
• German FL-7 – uninhabited motorboats

1920 CE – Norden bombsight
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WWII
• German Goliath – explosive
drone.
• OQ2 aerial training drones.
• Colossus – 1 ton programmable
computer to break Enigma code.

1956 CE – Unimation becomes
first robotics company.

1962 CE
• Unmanned recon drone “FireFly”
performs 3435 missions in
Vietnam
• First industrial robot “Unimate”
created for GE
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
1982 CE – Israel uses UAVs to strike Bekka
Valley.
1995 CE
• GPS added to drones
• Video game industry explodes
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
2000 CE – Senate armed services committee
ruled that by 2010 1/3 of aircraft, and by 2015 1/3
of land vehicles must be uninhabited.
2003 - 2008 number of uninhabited vehicles in
Iraq rose from zero to 12,000.
• There are now more UAVs than piloted aircraft

Artificial organism built on
“sense-think-act” principle.
• Does not depend on level of
autonomy.

Three main components:
• Sensors: Monitor environment.
• Processors and AI: Decide how to
respond.
• Effectors: Act upon environment.

Term “robot” first used by
Czech playwright Karel Čapek in
1921”Rossum’s Universal
Robots.”

Used to observe
surrounding
environment and build a
perception.
• Cameras and visible optics
• Infra-Red and non-visible
light.
 LADAR
 Synthetic Aperture Radar
 Millimetre wave
• More data collected
requires longer to process.
 Used
to manipulate
environment.
• Locomotion
 Wheels, tracks, legs,
propellers, etc.
• Manipulators
 Touch, grip, pick up
• Non-Lethal Weapons
 LRAD
 ADS

Chose appropriate
actions to achieve a task
based on programming
and sensory data.
• 80% of AI research is
funded by US Military
($21Billion/yr Industry).
• Computing power follows
exponential trend.
• GT Max flies itself, learns
from mistakes.
• Creativity Machine: makes
new ideas based on old
ones.

Inspiration for early roboticists was often science
fiction. War plays a large role in a lot of popular Sci.
Fi.
• More recent generation often find inspiration in video games.

Cost of uninhabited military vehicles is far less:
• Cost of one F-22 fighter is 85 times greater than one Predator.

DARPA, and other military agencies fund projects in
early stages under the assumption that they will one
day benefit the military.
• US defense budget rose 74% to $515 Billion from 2002 to 2008
not including operation cost of Iraq or Afghanistan.

2007 Senate Armed Services Committee requires
that the Pentagon prove that any new manned project
cannot be achieved by a robot.

Can prevent the loss of human lives.

Faster response times than humans, can stay
effective for longer than humans.
• Human pilots will remain effective for 10 - 12 hrs, the
planes they fly can remain airborne for at least 20 hrs.

Not subject to fear, fatigue, excitement, anger,
hunger, illness/infection, etc.

Does not forget or disobey orders.

Not subject to limitations of human body.
• E.g., g-force, temperature, breathing

Bomb / IED detection and defusing.
• Less at stake for a robot to engage a bomb.

Sniper and mortar early warning systems.

Reconnaissance and spying.
• Stay in air much longer than humans.

Medical evacuation and life support operations.

Transporting goods through dangerous areas.

Operating in “Dirty” zones (chemical / biological
weapons, irradiated areas.)

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Depends on level of
autonomy.
Video game
companies designed
equipment and
provided training.
Developing
technologies:
• Gestural systems
• Haptics – sense of touch
• EEG – intercept brain
waves.



Military doctrine based on the idea
that instant access to information
and communication will achieve
superiority.
Similar to Wall Mart dominating
market since they have global
knowledge of market and can
collude instantly.
1991 Iraq War
• 540,000 troops
• 100 Mbps connection
• 7% of bombs were precision guided

2003 Iraq War
• 125,000 troops
• 4200 Mbps connection
• 70% of bombs were precision guided
 Some
believe robots should only be used
for non combat roles.
 Others
feel robots should not carry lethal
weapons.
 Others
believe robots should engage
weapon systems but not combatants.
 Should
robots engage an enemy that fires
on friendly troops.

Technological advances follow an exponential growth
trend.
• E.g., Human Genome Project
• E.g., 1908 – 239 Model T Fords sold, over 1 million sold in 1918

Given level of autonomy possible today is Strong AI an
inevitability?

Defined as a paradigm
shift.
• E.g., printing press


The fear is that if humans
create an entity more
intelligent than itself, then
it may think and learn in
ways that we cannot
understand.
This intelligence can then
create more advanced
entities, and humans are
left behind unable to
understand any further
advances.
 Doesn’t
necessarily spell disaster for
humans although we would be left in the
dust of new advanced civilization.
 If
Cybernetic research advances at the
same pace as robotics and AI then we may
have nothing to fear.
 If
robots are programmed with something
along the lines of Asimov’s 3 laws, we
wouldn’t have to fear a violent revolution.
 Isaac
Asimov’s Three Laws of Robotics:
• A robot may not injure a human being or, through
inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
• A robot must obey any orders given to it by human
beings, except where such orders would conflict
with the First Law.
• A robot must protect its own existence as long as
such protection does not conflict with the First or
Second Law.



Laws are easily understood by humans, but not
easily translated into protocols for a machine to
follow.
Laws can be subverted: Asimov’s story of the
Solarians – humans defined to be anyone with a
Solarian accent.
Laws are already being ignored:
• 1. Robots are armed and expected to fight.
• 2. Robots not expected to take orders from any human.
• 3. Robots are expected to put themselves in danger.




The feedback loop refers to a robot providing an
assessment, and waiting for a human to decide
the next move.
Once robots start to engage other robots in war
there is no room left for humans in the loop.
Assuming we keep humans in the loop what
happens when the connection to the controller is
severed.
The Norden bombsight started removing humans
from the loop, now the computer opens the bay
doors and drops bombs by itself.
 Iran
Air Flight 655 shot down in 1988 by
US vessel when it was misidentified by a
defense computer as a fighter jet.
• Aegis combat system provided humans with the
results of its findings.
• Humans were in the loop and took action based
on computer recommendation despite
conflicting reports by other instruments.
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95% of military
communications are over
commercial lines.
GPS jamming devices
are available for
purchase.
EMI/RFI can distort
signals.
Many commercial
components are not
properly shielded.
 Number
of service and industrial robots
grows exponentially.
 US
Military is starting a bottom-up
robotic doctrine: Buy robots, arm them,
then find a use for them.
 May
have serious implications for the
nature of international relations and
human society itself.