Regional Emission-free Technology Implementation (RETI):

Diversifying the U.S. Electricity Portfolio Marc Santos 2008 ASME WISE Intern University of Massachusetts Amherst

Overview

 Climate Change Action  Issue Definition  Status of US Electricity Portfolio  Transition Options  Electricity Portfolio Projections  Recommendations

Climate Change Action

 In 2007 report: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)  “Warming of the climate system is Unequivocal”  Reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 60 80%  Sept 2007: President Bush states climate action needed  110 th Congress produces 195 pieces of climate change legislation  Both Presidential candidates support a cap on GHG emissions

Rise in Electricity

  Energy Information Administration states electricity will increase by 30% by 2030 1.1% increase per year will mean 45% increase by 2050  120 million digital converter boxes = half refrigerator    Plasma TVs use 3-4 times more power Cell phone, laptop, and video game plug-in power supplies have 40-50% power losses Potentially plug-in hybrid vehicles

Issue Definition

 GHG emissions should be reduced to 80% of current levels by 2050.

 US electricity demand to increase 45% by 2050.

Can the U.S. meet this amount of emission free generation capacity by 2050? And, if so how?

Why Focus on Electricity?

 Electricity sector is the largest producer of CO2

Current US Electricity Portfolio

Non-Hydro Renewables 2.4% Other 0.7% Hydro-electric 7.0% Nuclear 19.6% Coal 49.0% Petroleum 1.6% Natural gas 20.0%

2006 production: 4065 billion kilowatt hours     Mostly fossil fuels, especially coal No new nuclear facilities built for 30 years Natural gas has been largest recent growth Non-hydroelectric renewables are minimal

Regional Electricity Use

Current Non-Emitting Technologies    Nuclear Hydroelectric Geothermal   Wind Solar   Biomass Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS)

Potential Renewables

Current Population Distribution

Energy production should be regional

Evaluating Existing Projections

 Energy Information Administration (EIA)  2008 Annual Energy Outlook for 2030  Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)  2008 “Prism” Full Portfolio Projection for 2030  International Energy Agency (IEA)  Energy Technology Perspectives Blue Map for 2050

Energy Information Administration

Hydro 6% Non-Hydro Renewables 5% Nuclear 19% Petroleum 1% Natural Gas 11% 2008 Annual Energy Outlook projection for 2030 Coal 58%

 Increase in coal use    No CCS technology Renewables grow slightly New nuclear plants are built to meet 19%

Electric Power Research Institute

Hydro 5% Non-Hydro Renewables 9% Nuclear 29% Natural Gas 5% Coal w/ o CCS 39%

   CCS is developed for fossil fuels Nuclear grows substantially Renewables grow more rapidly than EIA projection

Coal w/ CCS 13% PRISM projection for 2030

International Energy Agency

Derived from

2008 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios Strategies to 2050

Regional Emission-Free Technology Implementation (RETI) Scenario      Adapting the IEA global projections for the US domestic electricity portfolio results in: 25% nuclear 46% renewable  Wind, Solar, Hydroelectric, Biomass, Geothermal 50% CCS technology for fossil fuels End-Use efficiency

Regional Emission-free Technology Implementation (RETI)

Solar 10% Biomass 5% Hydro 6% Geothermal 4% Other 1% Coal 12% Natural Gas 15% Petroleum 2% Wind 20% Nuclear 25%

RETI Projected Results for 2050

US Energy Porfolio

6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2006 2050 baseline scenario

Energy Porfolios

other hydro biomass solar w ind nuclear petroleum natural gas coal

Em issions

3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2006 2050 baseline

Scenario

•W/ CCS we reach a 73% reduction of 2006 emission levels.

pet roleum nat ural gas coal

Development Needed for RETI

450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Nuclear Wind Solar Hydro Biomass Geothermal Current Capacity RETI 2050 Capacity  Large increase in Nuclear, Wind, and Solar capacities

Hurdles to Overcome

 Nuclear  Reprocessing and waste disposal  Rebuilding infrastructure  Renewables   Large scale energy storage Advanced transmission systems “smart grids”  System reliability  CCS (Fossil fuels)  Sequestration of Carbon

Recommendations

Emission-free Technology Advancement



Implement a national emission standard which allows for regional flexibility



Implement a national renewable portfolio standard (RPS) which allows regional portfolio development



Continue production tax credits for investment of renewable technologies

. 

Allocate a substantial percentage of R & D funding to clean power generation technologies without specific inclusion or exclusion of particular emission-free systems.

Recommendations

Infrastructure Revision



Upgrade current transmission lines to allow for additional capacity of electricity and efficient grid use



Create new programs to redevelop US infrastructure by increasing worker training and facility construction to support the manufacture and installation of emission-free technologies.

Recommendations

Energy Efficiency

 

Improve financial incentives for energy reduction through economic programs such as federal tax credits and feed in tariffs.

Promote the development of efficiency standards in consumer products.

Questions?