Transcript Slide 1

“An econometric analysis OF IMPACT of
FUTURES TRADING – A study on
Cardamom, Potato, Jaggery and
Maize”
BY
Dr. P. K. Mandanna
Professor & Head
Dept. Ag.Maco & B Mgt
UAS, Bangalore
Preamble
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New market formats like direct marketing,
contract farming and retail chains are gaining
popularity
Market access and removal of quotas have
enhanced global trade in commodities
Changing food habits and value addition are
the drivers of domestic growth
Cardamom
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Important spice of South India.
India produces around 10,000 tons out of
World production of 30,000 tons.
About 90 per cent is domestically transacted
Potato
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India ranks 4th in Area and 3rd in production
25 million tons from1.4 m. ha.
World area 19.3 m ha. And 329 m.tons
Jaggery
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Important cottage industry in Karnataka
About 35 % of sugarcane used for jaggery
15 m.tons valued at 1500 crores
Maize
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11.5 million tons from 35.22 lakh hectares
75% of the produce is used in poultry feed
and 20% for starch extraction
Potato
Jaggery
Maize
Objectives of the Investigation:
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To study the supply response of selected
commodities
To study behaviour pattern of arrivals and
prices in principal markets
To study the relationship between spot and
futures prices
To document the Perception of growers and
traders on Futures trading
Strengthening of supply chain
Detailed Programme of Work
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10 years Secondary data on area and
production of all the four commodities in India
and Karnataka will be collected
The spot and future prices will be compiled
from NCDEX, MCX, & Karvy consultants
The primary data on perception will be
obtained from 120 farmers and traders located
in principal markets.
Analytical tools
The data will be analysed using statistical tools
 Hazell’s decomposition model to study
instability in area & production.
 Acreage response models to study supply
response.
 Tabular analysis to study perception.
 Co - integration technique for spot & futures
prices.
Benefits
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Production and Marketing advice to farmers
Developing commodity specific Production
and Marketing policy
To develop commodity specific action plans