Transcript NORTH SHORE WORKFORCE INVESTMENT BOARD

NORTH SHORE LABOR MARKET UPDATE JANUARY 2013
Presented by Will Sinatra
Average Quarterly Employment
171000
169000
167000
165000
163000
161000
159000
• Recession period from 4th Quarter 2007 to 4th Quarter 2009
• Recovery period from 4th Quarter 2009 to 4th Quarter 2011
Source: EOLWD, LAUS, 1/07-3/12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Mar-08
Jan-08
Nov-07
Sep-07
Jul-07
May-07
Mar-07
Jan-07
157000
NORTH SHORE LABOR MARKET UPDATE
Total Industrial Employment on the North Shore from Jan 2007 to March 2012
4th Quarter 2009 Employment
Health Care and Social Assistance
4Q 07- 4Q 09 Percent Change
30,402
Retail Trade
6.3%
26,344
Educational Services
16,863
Manufacturing
16,560
Durable Goods Manufacturing
4.4%
-17.0%
12,262
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
-2.3%
-19.3%
4,298
-9.6%
Accommodation and Food Services
14,989
Professional and Technical Services
7,796
Other Services
7,491
Administrative and Waste Services
6,552
Construction
6,125
Wholesale Trade
5,899
Finance and Insurance
5,757
Public Administration
5,654
Information
3,207
Transportation and Warehousing
3,130
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
3,117
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
1,898
Management of Companies and Enterprises
1,584
Utilities
-0.3%
-6.9%
4.4%
-11.0%
-21.3%
-4.0%
-5.8%
-2.3%
7.0%
2.9%
-3.3%
-12.0%
-3.2%
4.8%
801
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000 -30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
The North Shore 4th Quarter 2009 Employment is 154,651
• 5,121 jobs lost during this period
• 3% decline
Source: EOLWD, ES202, 4thQ07-4thQ09
10.0%
NORTH SHORE LABOR MARKET UPDATE
The Recession on the North Shore 4th Quarter 2007- 4th Quarter 2009
Northeast Region
NE employment at 402,017 but lost 15,500 jobs during this period, a 3.7% decline
Massachusetts
Source: Clifford, New England
Policy Center
MA employment at 3,009,046 but lost 130,000 jobs during this period, a 4.0% decline
NORTH SHORE LABOR MARKET UPDATE
Source: Clifford, New England
Policy Center
Areas of
Significant
Change
Gained Jobs
Lost Jobs
North Shore
Northeast
Massachusetts/
All Regions
Information
Management of Companies
Health Care, Education
Wholesale, Information
Manufacturing, Construction,
Administrative Support &
Waste Services, Financial
Services, Professional &
Technical Services, Retail
---
Recession Outcomes:
• Health Care and Education gained employment
• Manufacturing, Construction, Administrative Support Waste
Services, Financial Services, and Real Estate were the hardest hit
NORTH SHORE LABOR MARKET UPDATE
Outcome of the Recession
4th Q2007-4th Q2009
The Recovery on the North Shore 4th Quarter 2009 – 4th Quarter 2011
Health Care and Social Assistance
4Q 09- 4Q 11 Percent Change
31,820
Retail Trade
4.7%
26,408
Manufacturing
0.2%
17,288
Durable Goods Manufacturing
4.4%
13,106
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
6.9%
4,182
Educational Services
-2.7%
17,014
Accommodation and Food Services
0.9%
15,717
Professional and Technical Services
8,095
Other Services
8,041
Administrative and Waste Services
4.9%
3.8%
7.3%
7,124
Construction
6,257
Wholesale Trade
6,076
Finance and Insurance
5,566
Public Administration
5,373
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
3,262
Information
3,161
Transportation and Warehousing
3,096
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
1,834
Management of Companies and Enterprises
1,568
Utilities
8.7%
2.2%
3.0%
-3.3%
-5.0%
4.7%
-1.4%
-1.1%
-3.4%
-1.0%
-8.5%
732
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000 -10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
The North Shore total employment in the 4th Quarter 2011 was 168,911
• recovered 4,267 Jobs during this period
• 2.6% growth
Source: EOLWD, ES202, 4thQ09-4thQ11
10.0%
NORTH SHORE LABOR MARKET UPDATE
4th Q 2011 Employment
Northeast Recovery
68,844
48,604
6.0%
1.7%
4.1%
5.3%
0.7%
0.1%
6.2%
5.4%
7.4%
59,588
4th Quarter 2011 Employment
44,332
15,256
40,495
33,526
28,605
18,163
21,175
18,020
15,162
11,907
14,632
6,868
10,500
10,149
3,819
5,243
1,437
-
20,000
Massachusetts Recovery
Health Care and Social Assistance
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Educational Services
Accommodation and Food Services
Professional and Technical Services
Other Services
Administrative and Waste Services
Construction
Wholesale Trade
Finance and Insurance
Public Administration
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Information
Transportation and Warehousing
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Utilities
14.0%
6.6%
1.4%
1.9%
-1.7%
4.1%
-2.3%
0.7%
-4.1%
-12.3%
-7.8%
40,000
60,000
80,000 -20.0%
3,234,889 Employment, 2.9% Growth
4th Quarter 2011 Employment
354,301
-10.0%
535,214
0.2%
1.0%
87,269
-1.4%
344,121
265,007
264,611
1.1%
6.0%
5.1%
7.0%
8.0%
4.5%
138,436
166,190
126,066
124,078
167,969
133,390
51,840
90,105
98,219
40,206
58,956
13,998
300,000
20.0%
4.2%
3.1%
254,322
150,000
10.0%
4thQ 09-4thQ 11 Percent Change
167,053
0
0.0%
-1.6%
-1.4%
-1.1%
4.7%
0.6%
1.8%
0.8%
0.7%
2.0%
450,000
600,000
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
NORTH SHORE LABOR MARKET UPDATE
Health Care and Social Assistance
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
Educational Services
Accommodation and Food Services
Professional and Technical Services
Other Services
Administrative and Waste Services
Construction
Wholesale Trade
Finance and Insurance
Public Administration
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Information
Transportation and Warehousing
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Utilities
Source: EOLWD, ES202, 4thQ09-4thQ11
4thQ 09-4thQ 11 Percent Change
417,486 Employment, 3.6% Growth
Areas of Significant
Change
North Shore
Northeast
Massachusetts/All Regions
Health Care,
Accommodation & Food Services,
Administrative Support and Waste
Services, Construction
Gained
Jobs
Durable Goods
Durable Goods,
Professional & Technical
Services
Lost Jobs
Utilites, Public
Administration, Finance,
Real Estate
Management of
Companies, Real Estate
Finance, Non-Durable Goods
• Recovery Outcomes:
• Health Care continues to grow
• Education’s growth has slowed down
• Manufacturing is returning, concentrated growth in Durable Goods in
the Northeast and North Shore
• Very slow growth in Construction
• Tourism pick up throughout
• Growth in Accommodation & Food Services and Arts,
Entertainment, and Recreation.
• Financial Services employment decline is nearly double the rate on
the North Shore compared to the Northeast and Massachusetts
• Real Estate is weak on the North Shore and Northeast
compared to Massachusetts
NORTH SHORE LABOR MARKET UPDATE
Current State of Recovery
NORTH SHORE LABOR MARKET UPDATE
Unemployment Rate for the USA, Massachusetts, and North Shore
11
10
9
8
7
6
• North Shore Unemployment follows Massachusetts
• Seasonal Trends
• Rises in Dec-Jan and April/May-June
• Falls from Feb-April/May and Sept-Oct
• Remains steady during the Summer
Source: EOLWD, LAUS, 1/07-9/12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
USA
Mar-10
Massachusetts
Jan-10
Northeast
Nov-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Mar-08
Jan-08
Nov-07
Sep-07
Jul-07
May-07
Mar-07
2
Jan-07
3
North Shore
Sep-09
4
Mar-12
5
Region
Under 35
% of
% of Labor
Unemployed
Force
52%
36%
35 & Over
% of
% of Labor
Unemployed
Force
48%
64%
Census
Total Labor Force
USA
2009-2011 ACS
156,456,694
Massachusetts
2009-2011 ACS
3,573,919
48%
35%
52%
65%
Northeast
2008-2010 ACS
556,272
45%
32%
55%
68%
North Shore
2007-2011 ACS
220,038
47%
32%
53%
68%
Northeast
• The Under 35 population are
disportionately represented in
the percentage of unemployed
throughout the country
• The Northeast and North Shore
Labor Forces are older than
Massachusetts and USA
Source: Clifford, New England Policy Center
NORTH SHORE LABOR MARKET UPDATE
Unemployment Challenges
Educational Attainment of the Population Over 18 Years Old
7%
13%
90%
15%
17%
17%
80%
21%
70%
13%
60%
4%
9%
21%
Graduate or
professional
degree
Bachelor's
degree
7%
8%
Associate's
degree
7%
24%
50%
19%
18%
Some
college, no
degree
40%
30%
51%
28%
25%
29%
20%
10%
8%
11%
14%
15%
North Shore
Masschusetts
USA
0%
Total EUC
EUC= Customer’s with more than 26wks of unemployment
Sampling of Extended Unemployment Coverage customers enrolled from May19th to July 31st
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2007-2011, 2008-2011
High school
graduate
Less than
High School
NORTH SHORE LABOR MARKET UPDATE
100%
Northeast
• The North Shore has a comparable
educational attainment level to the
Northeast
• The North Shore & Northeast
both have a lower rate of
Graduate degrees than
Massachusetts but a higher
rate of Associates' and Some
College
• Massachusetts, Northeast, and the
North Shore all have an
educational attainment higher
than the USA.
Source: Clifford, New England Policy Center
• The EUC Cohort has an educational
attainment lower than all regions
NORTH SHORE LABOR MARKET UPDATE
What is the education data telling us?
Educational Attainment by Age Groups for EUC, North Shore, & Massachusetts
90%
0%
7%
4%
1%
8%
12%
7%
1%
12%
15%
14%
17%
17%
13%
5%
19%
80%
4%
14%
5%
60%
3%
30%
70%
13%
21%
20%
8%
3%
43%
8%
8%
50%
6%
17%
77%
49%
31%
29%
28%
27%
High school
graduate
21%
20%
20%
10%
0%
Some college,
no degree
18%
54%
16%
5%
8%
8%
Associate's
degree
16%
18%
30%
Bachelor's
degree
31%
36%
40%
Graduate or
professional
degree
11%
Source: Massachusetts One-Stop Employment System, MOSES
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2007-2011, 2008-2011
10%
12%
8%
12%
Less than
High School
NORTH SHORE LABOR MARKET UPDATE
100%
• The population Under 35 has a higher educational attainment than the 35
and Over Cohort when considering the number still in High School and
College
• The North Shore and Northeast have similar educational attainments
• Both regions are lower than Massachusetts
• However, the EUC Cohort has a reversal of the educational trends with the
35 and Over having a higher attainment level compared the Under 35
Cohort.
• Both groups are lower than their regional counterparts
NORTH SHORE LABOR MARKET UPDATE
What is the education data telling us?
• The North Shore economy is still recovering from the recession
• If the current growth rate is maintained we should recover all jobs
lost to recession by the end of 2013, but unemployment will still
remain higher than prerecession levels due to population growth
and individuals returning to the labor force.
• The unemployed will be at a disadvantage in returning to employment
due to their lower level of educational attainment compared to their
peers.
• This is especially true for the Under 35 EUC group
• Opportunities should exist in Durable Goods manufacturing
NORTH SHORE LABOR MARKET UPDATE
Putting it all together
An online search of Wantedanalytics found 298 jobs in manufacturing posted from
September 1st to January 8th
Occupation
Employer
City
Salary
Electronic Assembler
Raytheon
Andover
$40,000
Machinist
Flowserve
Lawrence
$42,000
CNC Lathe Set-Up
Sterling Machine
Lynn
$39,000
QC Inspector
Johnson Controls
Lynnfield
$31,000
Mechanical Assembler
Communication &
Power Industries
Beverly
$33,000
CNC Programmer
A.W. Chesterton
Company
Groveland
$58,000
North Shore Labor Market Update
Sample Durable Goods Manufacturing Jobs in Essex County
CONTACT INFORMATION
William Sinatra
Planning & Data Analyst
North Shore Workforce Investment Board
70 Washington Street, Suite 314
Salem, MA 01970
(978) 741-3805
[email protected]