Do Now:

• The world population today is over 7 billion people, with most living in East and South Asia. How and/or why does 20% of the worlds population live in one region?

• What factors are taken into consideration?

Aim: What is the demographic transition?

Crude Birth Rate

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1 to 2.5 children per woman is considered

“

replacement level.

”

Crude Death Rates



Infant Mortality Rate:

- the number of deaths of children under the age of 1, per thousand of the general population.

 Life Expectancy : The average number of years an individual can be expected to live, given current social, economic, and medical conditions.

Dependency Ratio

• The number of people under the age of 15 and over age 64, compared to the number of people active in the labor force.

 Population under the age of 15 - usually shown as a percentage of the total population of a country - dependency age is 0-15

What is the Demographic Transition?

 The shift from high to low mortality and   fertility through

four

distinct stages.

 Based on the experience of Western Europe ’ s Industrial Age.

Began by Warren Thompson in 1929.

Further developed in 1945 by Frank Notestein  A sign of socio-economic progress?

The Classic Demographic Transition

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Natural increase Birth rate Death rate Time

Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

Stage 1 - High Fluctuating

Reasons

 Birth Rate is high as a result of:  Lack of family planning  High Infant Mortality Rate: putting babies in the 'bank'     Need for workers in agriculture Religious beliefs  Children as economic assets Death Rate is high because of:  High levels of disease  Famine  Lack of clean water and sanitation  Lack of health care  War  Competition for food from predators such as rats  Lack of education Typical of Britain in the 18th century and the Least Economically Developed Countries (LEDC's) today.

Crude Birth Rate: High 40-50 / 1,000 Crude Death Rate: High 40-50 / 1,000 Natural Increase Rate: None 0 / 1,000 Today, no country in the world is in Stage 1.

 

Reasons

Stage 2 - Early Expanding

  Death Rate is falling as a result of: Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine)  Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled)   Improved sanitation Improved food production and storage  Improved transport for food  Decreased Infant Mortality Rates Typical of Britain in 19th century; Bangladesh; Nigeria Crude Birth Rate: High 1,000 40+ / 1,000 Crude Death Rate: Lower 15 / Natural Increase Rate: Very High 25+/1,000

Stage 3 - Late Expanding



Reasons

 Family planning available  Lower Infant Mortality Rate  Increased mechanization reduces need for workers  Increased standard of living  Changing status of women  Typical of Britain in late 19th and early 20th century; China; Brazil.

Crude Birth Rate: Lower 20 / 1,000 Crude Death Rate: Low 1,000 10 / Natural Increase Rate: Low 10 / 1000

Stage 4 - Low Fluctuating

• Reasons – Economy is settled – Fully developed Middle Class – Political stability • Typical of USA; Sweden; Japan; Britain Crude Birth Rate: Low 10 / 1,000 Crude Death Rate: Low 1,000 10 / Natural Increase Rate: None 0 / 1,000

Is the model universally applicable?

• Like all models, the demographic transition model has its limitations. It failed to consider, or to predict, several factors and events: – 1 Birth rates in several MEDCs have fallen below death rates (Germany, Sweden). This has caused, for the first time, a population decline which suggests that perhaps the model should have a fifth stage added to it.

– 2 The model assumes that in time all countries pass through the same four stages. It now seems unlikely, however, that many LEDCs, especially in Africa, will ever become industrialized.

 

Continued

3 The model assumes that the fall in the death rate in Stage 2 was the consequence of industrialization. Initially, the death rate in many British cities rose, due to the insanitary conditions which resulted from rapid urban growth, and it only began to fall after advances were made in medicine. The delayed fall in the death rate in many developing countries has been due mainly to their inability to afford medical facilities. In many countries, the fall in the birth rate in Stage 3 has been birth control (Brazil), whereas the fall was much

more less

rapid than the model suggests due to religious and/or political opposition to rapid, and came earlier, in China following the government-introduced ‘ one child ’ policy. The timescale of the model, especially in several South-east Asian countries such as Hong Kong and Malaysia, is being squashed as they develop at a much faster rate than did the early industrialized countries.

4 Countries that grew as a consequence of emigration from Europe (USA, Canada, Australia) did not pass through the early stages of the model.

World Health Threats

• This transition occurs as a country undergoes the process of modernization or economic development. Less economically developed countries have higher rates of infectious diseases as standards of medical care are lower than that found in more economically developed countries.

• In more economically developed countries, more people die from degenerative diseases as infectious diseases such as cholera and typhoid are easily treated, causing more people to die from cancers as they live longer.

Epidemiologic Transition- stage 1

• The

first transition

was from hunting-gathering to primary food production. During this transition, infectious and parasitic diseases became prevalent. The shift to agriculture provides a more sedentary way-of-life and this creates more opportunities for contact with infected animals and human waste (i.e. vectors and vehicles of transmission).

Epidemiologic Transition –stage 2

• The

second epidemiological transition

occurred in modern times with infectious diseases under control and chronic, noninfectious, degenerative diseases rising. This second epidemiological transition is typically in the wealthy or developed nations. Developing nations still suffer from infectious diseases more than chronic diseases.

Epidemiologic Transition- stage 3

• The stage of generative and human-created diseases, characterized by a decrease in deaths from infectious diseases and an increase in chronic disorders associated with aging. Two important chronic disorders are cardiovascular diseases and various forms of cancer

Epidemiologic Transition- stage 4

• The stage of delayed degenerative diseases. The major degenerative causes of death cardiovascular diseases and cancers. Life expectancy of older people is extended through medical advances

Epidemiologic Transition-stage 5

• The stage of reemergence of infectious and parasitic diseases. Infectious diseases thought to have been eradicated or controlled have returned, and new ones have emerged.

Cholera in London,

1854

Fig. 2-23: By mapping the distribution of cholera cases and water pumps in Soho, London, Dr. John Snow identified the source of the water-borne epidemic.

Tuberculosis Death Rates

Fig. 2-24: The tuberculosis death rate is good indicator of a country ’ s ability to invest in health care. TB is still one of the world ’ s largest infectious disease killers.

HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates, 2005

Fig. 2-26: The highest HIV infection rates are in sub-Saharan Africa. India and China have large numbers of cases, but lower infection rates at present.

• Population Pyramids display a country ’ s population in a bar graph form.

• Each 5 year group with the youngest 0-4 years old at the base of the pyramid are called cohorts.

• Males are shown on the left side and females are shown on the right.

• A wide-based pyramid indicates a country in Stage 2 of the Demographic transition.

Population Pyramids

– Charts that show the percentages of each age group in the total population, divided by gender.

For poorer countries, the chart is shaped like a pyramid. Infant mortality rates are high, life expectancy is shorter.

Population Pyramids

Charts that show the percentages of each age group in the total population, divided by gender.

For wealthier countries, the chart is shaped like a lopsided vase. Population is aging, TFRs are declining.

Population Policies

•

Expansive Policies or Pro Natalist

policies encourage large families e.g. Fascist Italy, Nazi Germany, Soviet Union & Ceausescu ’ s Romania & Mao ’ s China.

•

Eugenic Population Policy

-Nazi Germany favored “ Aryans ” over mentally ill or other undesirables.

• The Nazis tried to breed the super race of Nordic or Aryan types.

Population Policies

• Restrictive or

Anti-Natalist

Policies discourage births.

• Policies vary- e.g. despite Vatican policies, most Catholic Italians practice artificial birth control-Philippines (only Asian Catholic country) a different case-govt. restricts birth control.

• Some countries have learned that industrialization & urbanization do as much as government policy in controlling births.

China

’

s One Child Policy

What are some of the limitations, unintended consequences, and contradictions found in government policies toward population growth?

Geography of Demography

• Recognized minorities (3%) of pop. were exempt • Many rural Chinese defied rule, hid pregnant women, failed to register births, prevented inspectors from visiting rural villages.

• Government took drastic action: – Violators were fired – Land was confiscated – Lost all benefits – Pregnant women were arrested & forced to have abortions

Geography of Demography

• First 6 years 70 million abortions • 1980s about 20 million sterilizations a year-3X as many women as men.

• Party Members were birth control police-got cash and promotion for enforcing the laws.

• 1984 One Child Policy was relaxed in the countryside-a couple with a daughter-2 nd child after 4 years.

Geography of Demography

• China ’ s One-Child Policy created a generation of 90 million • 119 boys for every 100 girls • 30 million unmarried men by 2020 • 45% of Chinese women said they don ’ t intend to wed.

• 3/10 families have grandparents living with them • Biggest demographic revolution in history-Number of Elderly is rising-by 2050 about 30% of the population will be over 60-no pensions or social security.

• In 1798 he published

An Essay on the Principle of Population

• Malthus was the first to sound the alarm that the world ’ s population was expanding more rapidly than food production.

• He was the first to recognize exponential or geometric population growth.

• Today those who share his concerns are Neo Malthusians

Rev. Thomas Malthus 1766-1834

Food & Population, 1950-2000

Malthus vs. Actual Trends

Fig. 2-20: Malthus predicted population would grow faster than food production, but food production actually expanded faster than population in the 2nd half of the 20th century.

Thomas Malthus

 Population is growing faster than Earth ’ s food supply  Population increased geometrically; food supply increased arithmetically

Neo-Malthusians

• Transfer of medical technology leads to a rapid increase in population in poor countries • World population is outstripping a wide variety of resources • Wars and civil violence will increase because of scarcity of food and other resources

Critics of Malthus

• Large populations • stimulate economic growth Poverty, hunger, and other social welfare problems are a result of unjust social and economic institutions

Malthus Theory and Reality

• Food production increased more rapidly than predicted because of technology.

– Internal combustion engines – Artificial fertilizers – Pesticides – Irrigation pumps – Advanced plant and animal hybridization techniques – Refrigeration – Tin can for packaging

THE END