Transcript EU Biomass Industry: Directives from the European

European
EuropeanBiomass
BiomassIndustry
IndustryAssociation
Association
EU Biomass Industry:
Targets & Directives from the EC, on R.E.
Technology, Business Opportunities and Market
Challenges
Mr. Giuliano Grassi
Secretary General,
European Biomass Industry Association (EUBIA)
27 April 2010
BIOMASS STAKEHOLDERS FORUM
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Biomass process technologies business technologies
Context:
World wide interest for Biomass resources is now emerging because :
• Its potential is considerable
• Biomass is able to penetrate all energy sectorial markets, but economic
constraints still limits its general deployment
• Many benefits (socio, economic, environmental, diversification of energy
supply, rural development etc…) related to possible modern large use of
biomass has generated strong interest and support of political decision makers.
However is vital to :
1- Promote efficient but sustainable bioenergy schemes
2. Plan Large Investments
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Worldwide biomass resources
• Worldwide biomass stock:
~ 370 B TOE/y
• World biomass production:
- Terrestrial:
- Acquatic:
~ 80 B TOE/y
~ 20 B TOE/y
• Estimation of world biomass potential (year 2100):
- Biomass potential:
~ 6.6 B TOE/y
- Ultimate future potential (max):
~ 28.3 B TOE/y
• Total Energy consumption (2000):
•Total electricity consumption (2040):
~ 9.9 B TOE/a
~ 37000 TWh
• Total nuclear energy supply in year 2000:
638 MTOE/y
690 MTOE/y
in year 2020:
B TOE: Billion of Tonnes Oil Equivalent (1 TOE ~ 2,4 t dry biomass)
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European biomass resources
• Current consumption (EU-15; 2001):
- Primary energy:
- Biomass:
• EU guideline regarding biomass use:
- for 2010
- for 2020
•EEA (2030 estimated potential)
• Biomass potential (2050)
- UE-15
- UE-27
~ 1486 M TOE/y
~ 57 M TOE/y
(3.8%)
~ 135 M TOE/y
~ 220 M TOE/y
~ 300 MTO/y
~ 500 M TOE/y
~ 600 M TOE/y
M TOE: Million of Tonnes Oil Equivalent (1 TOE ~ 2,4 t dry biomass)
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Conflicts and lands for food / bioenergy production
• From preliminary evaluations it seems that risk of conflicts for land use will arise in
general only when the rate of contribution of bioenergy to the > 30%
• Total worldwide cropland is in fact ~ 2 billion ha. Present utilization is ~ 750 mio ha,
but should increase to ~ 1 050 billion ha (in year 2025) for the population increase, living
thus 0.95 billion ha for potential bioenergy production (~ 5 billion TOE/y) based on
present knowledge and practice.
•However, modern molecular biotechnology could change this present limitations,
modifying the metabolism of dedicated energy crops and increasing the photosynthetic
efficiency of crops (rather modest now : 2-2.5 % for good crops : like sugar-cane, sweetsorghum, etc …)
•Use of most agriculture residues (~ 80% of total) should be promoted because
emerging technology for its stabilization & modern use is now appearing on the market
(agro-pellets)
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Water resources on the globe
Water availability is an important constraint:
120
(1kg of dry biomass requires 200-1,000 kg of water!)
x 1000 cubic meter / person
105
100
1950
2000
80
60
37
40
28
17
20
20
5
0
South America
North America
Africa
10
3
Asia
6
Europe
4
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WORLD
TOTAL LAND TO
AREA
(13.5 bill
GLOBAL
VULNERABILITY
DESERTIFICATION
ha).
(700 million ha in coastal areas)
Desert
1.8
1.61
1.75
6.24
2.1
Land with high risk
of desertification
Land with
moderate risk of
desertification
Good Agricultural
Land
other
2,05 billion(3.2 with
0.755 billion ha available for Energy-crops.
•
•
•
Total desert area: ~ 1,800 million ha.
Actual loss of agriculture land: about 12 million ha/year.
Loss of Agriculture area for salted water irrigation:1/2 million ha/year.
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RES Electricity Targets
TYPE OF ENERGY
1997
Eurostat
2004
Eurostat
TWh
AGR
20002004
TWh
DIRECTIV
E TARGET
2010
TWh
AGR
NEEDED
20042010
%
%
Biomass
28.8
67.9
13.0
Wind
7.3
58.5
34.6
Photovoltaics
0.05
0.74
47.0
Geothermal
4.0
5.5
4.7
40.0
132.6
18.7
371
18.7
310.4
303.8
-0.3
356
2.7
Total RES
350.5
436.4
3.8
725
8.8
Total Electricity
2,740
3,179
2.1
3,456
1.4
Renewables’ Share
Without Hydro%
1.5
4.2
-
10.7
Renewables’ Share %
12.3
13.7
-
21
Total RES without Hydro
Hydro
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Biofuels Targets
2000
Eurostat
2004
Eurostat
AGR
20002004
DIRECTIVE
TARGET
2010
AGR
NEEDED
2004-2010
Mtoe
Mtoe
%
Mtoe
%
Biofuels
0.63
2.1
35.1
18.0
43.0
Gasoline and oil
demand
277.3
290
1.1
313
1.3
0.2
0.72
-
5.75
Biofuels’ Share %
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Contribution of Renewables to Heat Production (1995-2020)
2004
Eurostat
Mtoe
2010
Projections
Mtoe
2020
Projections
Mtoe
Biomass
48.4
65
105
Solar thermal
0.68
2
12
1.5
4
8
TOTAL RES HEAT
50.6
81
125
Total Heat Generation
(Trends to 2030)
440
467
488
11.5%
17.3%
25.6%
Geothermal
Share of RES
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Contribution of Renewables to Transport Fuel Production
2000 Eurostat
2004
Eurostat
Projection
2010
Projection
2020
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Mtoe
Biofuels
0.63
2.1
18.0
40.0
Gasoline and oil demand
(Trends to 2030-Baseline)
(Combined RES and EE)
277.3
290
313
311.5
332
312
0.72
5.75
12.0-12.8
Biofuels’ Share %
0.2
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Contribution of RES to Primary Energy Production Eurostat Convention (Mtoe)
2004
TYPE OF ENERGY
Total Gross Inland
Consumption
Eurostat
Convention
TARGETS
%
of Total
1,747
Eurostat
Convention
2010
%
TARGETS 2020
of
Total
1,761
(Combined
RES and EE)
Eurostat
Convention
%
of total
1,633
(Combined
RES and EE)
Wind
5.03
0.29
15.4
0.87
43.9
1.69
Hydro
26.13
1.50
30.6
1.74
33
2.02
Photovoltaics
0.06
0.8
0.05
5.3
0.32
Biomass
71.9
4.11
125
7.10
235
14.4
Geothermal
5.36
0.31
8.2
0.46
16.4
1.00
Solar Thermal
0.68
0.04
2
0.11
12
0.73
0.2
0.01
0.8
0.05
0.25
0.01
1.3
0.08
182.4
10.4
348
21.3
Solar Power
0
Ocean
Total Renewable
Energies
109.16
6.25
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EU-25 RE Contribution
Year 2002
Biomass 65 MToe
Hydro 25 MToe
Wind
Geothermal
4 MToe
4 MToe
TOTAL 98 MToe/y
White paper targets for EU-15 = 135 MTOE/y (in 2010)
Adjusted paper targets for EU-25 = 150 MTOE/y (in 2010)
Current Trend : 75-80 MTOE/y (in 2010)
Biomass is lagging behind other RE with risk of missing the 2010 targets
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Renewable Energy Roadmap by the European
Commission
• 20 % binding overall RES target for EU by 2020
• 20% of CO2 emission reduction
• 20% energy saving
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Targets:
Horizon
2010
2020
References
EU RES Target EU RES - E Target EU RES - H Target EU RES - T Target
White Paper (1997)
RES E Directive (2001) 12% non binding 21% non binding
RES T Directive (2003)
(*)
(**)
New RES Directive 2009
Source: Tractebel / GDF Suez
20% binding
(*)
-
34% non binding 18% non binding
(***)
(***)
5,75% (**)
at least 10% in
each MS
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Present Emerging Economic Opportunities
 Heat production
 Cogeneration (decentralized production with green-certificate availability)
 Cofiring (centralized production with CO2-credits)
 Transport biofuels, in particular :
• Bioethanol
• Biodiesel
• Biogas
(most of this activities benefit of economic support measures)
 Bio hydrogen (industrial quality)
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Future Economic Opportunities for Bioenergy
Assuming an import price for :
• Oil = 70 $/bbl*
• Natural Gas = 250 €/ 1.000 m3 (300 €/TOE)
The level of competitiveness for biofuels is around :
~ 50 €/dryt (solid biomass)
~ 450 €/TOE (liquid biofuels for transport)
* A price of ~ 100 $/bbl could become a reality around the year 2030
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World CO2 Emissions from different sectors (IEA).
TOTAL
2005 = ~ 22 Bill ton CO2/y.
2010 = ~ 30 Bill ton CO2/y.
2020 = ~ 38 Bill ton CO2/y.
2030 = ~ 44 Bill ton CO2/y.
Bill tCO2/y
9
8
7
6
5
41%
4
3
19%
39%
2
13%
9%
1
0
Industry
Transport
Residential
Power
Other
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Stationary Plants with high CO2 Emissions
• Cement Factories: ~ tCO2 /tCement (i bill t cement/y).
• Steel Factories:~ 3tCO2 /tsteel (1.2 bill steel/y).
• Power Plants (coal): ~ 1kg CO2 / KWhe (18000 bill
Kwhe/y).
• Oil Refineries: ~ 0.5 tCO2/t oil (3.5 bill t/y).
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Mitigation of CO2 Emissions
I.
II.
Efficiency Improvement: processing & use;
CO2 storage, but is an expensive solution :
(i.e. 100% increase of electricity production in conventional coal power-plants~ 17% of
electricity loss).
(~ 300-400€/tCO2 avoided in transport).
III.
Deployment of R.E.;
Solar-wind Hydro-Biomass.
Modern Biomass will play a crytical rôle: already is providing a good contribution having
increased its acquatic-terrestrial carbon sink (due to the CO2 fertilisation effects) reducing
thus ,its accumulation level into the atmosphere from ~ 22 Bill ton/y to ~ 12 Bill t/y.
In Future large-scale vegetation in marginal lands and surplus agric.lands for production &
substitution of modern biofuels to fossil-fuels.
NOTE: An area of ~ 400 million ha of land cultivated by well selected C-4 crops could be able to
absorb the CO2 annual increase in the atmosphere .
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Thank you for your
attention!
Mr. Giuliano Grassi - Secretary General
European Biomass Industry Association
(EUBIA)
EUBIA
Rue d’Arlon, 63-65, B-1040 Brussels, Belgium
[email protected]; www.eubia.org