Transcript PowerPoint 簡報

Energy Security in PECC Region
Dr. David Hong
Taiwan Institute of Economic Research
28-30 November 2001
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WTI: West Texas Intermediate
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World Oil Markets

World oil prices initially rose in September following the
terrorist attack, but then fell sharply as OPEC reassured
world markets that it would maintain plentiful supplies
on world markets. Also enhanced by weakening world
oil demand, then West Texas Intermediate(WTI) crude
oil spot price averaged $22.6 per barrel in October.
Commercial oil stocks in OECD countries are expected
to fall well within the average range throughout the
forecast.
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OIL MARKET VOLATILITY
CONTINGENT CAUSES
-Oil suppliers’ Politico-military factors
-Accidental occurrence (e.g. Sept. terrorist attack)
-Market psychology and over reaction
 STRUCTURAL CAUSES
-Supply constraints and rapid growth of demand
-Supplier’s targeted-price policy
-Side effect of market liberalization
-“Green Impacts” + “Dash for Gas”

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1999 Crude oil & Petroleum Indigenous Production in PECC Region
450,000
391,865
400,000
350,000
305,099
250,000
200,000
150,000
152,630
152,003
132,052
100,000
59,879
643
0
2,145 4,331 5,179
45
0
40 3,919
Russia
Philippines
Peru
P N Guinea
N. Zealand
Mexico
Malaysia
Indonesia
Hong Kong
China
Chile
Canada
Brunei
Australia
0
USA
0
Thailand
250
Taiwan
8,129
Singapore
32,835
S. Korea
50,000 24,518
Japan
Unit:KTOE
300,000
Countries
Source: TIER Calculation based in APEC Energy Data Base (IEEJ)
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PECC Energy Supply Indicators
Crude Oil Proved Reserves
Crude Oil (Million barrels), 2000
Russia
50000
40000
China
30000
Mexico
USA
20000
10000
0
Aus
Mal
SK
Bru
Mex
CT
Can
NZ
Tha
Source: Energy Information Administration/ APEC
Chil
PNG
USA
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Chin
Per
Vie
HK
Phil
Ind
Rus
Jap
Sin
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ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACTS
OF OIL MARKET VOLATILITY
 It
is essential to secure the adequate oil supply
at reasonable price for sound and sustainable
economic growth and social development.
 Yet, the recent oil market volatility is not
resource-based. Supply cushion to deal with the
fluctuation in supply-demand balance is difficult
to work in the short term.
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Energy Supply / Demand
In PECC Region
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1999 Final Energy Consumption of Asian-Pacific Countries
1,800,000
1,621,312
1,600,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
575,616
600,000
482,355
359,698
188,549
18,701
665
10,658
136,465
96,942
26,649
12,991 824 8,563 17,112
60,741
3,565 48,544 40,293
Singapore
Russia
Philippines
Peru
P N Guinea
N. Zealand
Mexico
Malaysia
S. Korea
Japan
Indonesia
Hong Kong
China
Chile
Canada
Brunei
Australia
0
Countries
Source: TIER Calculation based in APEC Energy Data Base (IEEJ)
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USA
200,000 76,534
Thailand
400,000
Taiwan
Unit: KTOE
1,400,000
1999 Primary Energy Supply in PECC Region
2,500,000
2,254,689
Unit:KTOE
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
723,622
583,112
110,215
23,993
1,837
14,247
174,668
149,121
52,878
18,307 1,145 9,369 29,953
83,019
20,756 76,086 60,363
Singapore
Russia
Philippines
Peru
P N Guinea
N. Zealand
Mexico
Malaysia
S. Korea
Japan
Indonesia
Hong Kong
China
Chile
Canada
Brunei
Australia
0
Countries
Source: TIER Calculation based in APEC Energy Data Base (IEEJ)
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USA
256,649
Thailand
500,000
Taiwan
511,108
1999 Excess Energy Supply in PECC Region
Excess Supply
1,000,000
821,460
800,000
600,000
400,000
182,561
123,748
55,773
Countries
Excess Supply means (Primary Energy Supply) –(Final Energy Consumption).
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Source: TIER Calculation based in APEC
Energy Data Base (IEEJ)
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Total
-36,984-13,714
United States of America
-6,739
Russia
-3,565
Philippines
Peru
Papua New Guinea
-257,917
New Zealand
-105,484
Mexico
Japan
Indonesia
China
Chile
-10,658
Republic of Korea
-400,000
-11,751
Hong Kong, China
-200,000
82,454
1,906 3,730 -645
Canada
0
Brunei Darussalam
15,564
Thailand
104,722
Chinese Taipei
115,315
Singapore
132,025
Malaysia
200,000
Australia
Unit: KTOE
451,119
1999 Primary Energy Supply Sources in PECC Region
1%
2%
7%
40%
23%
27%
Crude oil & Petroleum
Coal
Source: TIER Calculation based in APEC
Energy Data Base (IEEJ)
Natural Gas
Nuclear Power
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Hydro Power
Geothermal, Solar, etc.
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1999 PECC Energy Reserves
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
0%
20%
PECC
Source: TIER Calculation based on B P Amoco
Statistical Review of World Energy, 2000
40%
60%
80%
100%
Other Part of the World
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PECC Energy Production/Consumption
Increase in Past 20 years (1980-1999)
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Hydrolectric
Total
0%
100%
200%
Production
Source: APEC Report, EIA 2000
300%
400%
500%
Consumption
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Promotion of Natural Gas
Resource Potential in PECC
 Numbers of LNG, P/L projects being examined or
implemented, eg. China, Korea, Taiwan, ASEAN
countries.
 Advanced Technologies
 Advantage as a “Clean Fuel”
 But constraints are: Price competitiveness, requirement
for large-scale investment in infrastructure buildup.

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PECC Energy Supply Indicators
Natural Gas Proved Reserves
Natural Gas (Trillion cubic feet),2000
200
150
100
50
0
+ Russia: 1700
Aus
Jap
Sin
Bru
Mal
SK
Can
Mex
CT
Source: Energy Information Administration/ APEC
Chil
NZ
Tha
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Chin
PNG
USA
HK
Per
Vie
Ind
Phil
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Promotion of Coal






Abundant resource potential, eg. China.
Top-class production capacity and record, eg. China: 2nd
largest producer.
Availability of Australian coal (3rd largest producer) as
regional resource.
Price competitiveness
Promoted as base-load power source in many economies.
But environmental constraints exist (Sox, Nox, Co2
emission). Importance of “clean technology”for further
promotion on coal.
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PECC Energy Supply Indicator
Coal Proved Reserves
Coal (Billion short tons), 1998
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Aus
Mal
SK
Bru
Mex
CT
Can
NZ
Tha
Source: Energy Information Administration/ APEC
Chil
PNG
USA
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Chin
Per
Vie
HK
Phil
Ind
Rus
Jap
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Nuclear Power Development in PECC
 New plants are constructed in Korea and China.
 Stagnation in US.

In most Asia countries, nuclear power is promoted as:
1) Quasi-domestic energy
 2) Mainstream of oil alternative
 3) Important source of base-load power

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Promotion of Energy Conservation

Energy conservation has benefits to:

Limit energy demand and imports
Reduce environment load
Enhance economic competitiveness


Energy conservation is a top priority in many PECC
economies. Governments set long-term target for
energy conservation.
 In reality, however, energy conservation is difficult to
achieve due to the “income effect”. Energy intensity
flattened out or increased in many economies.

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Alternative Energy
Outlook of Renewable Energy
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PECC Domestic Renewable Energy
Share of the Primary Energy supply
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
AusBruCanChiChnHK Ind Jap MalMexNZ Per Phi Rus Sin Kor CT Tha US Vie
Hydro
Solar/Wind/Other
Source: APEC Energy Data Base (IEEJ), 2000
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Geothermal
Biomass
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CONSTRAINTS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY
 Relatively
low price of fossil fuels
 High initial investment costs
 Lack of information dissemination
 Ineffective distribution and
marketing
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Outlook of RENEWABLE ENERGY
The renewable portfolio is diversified geographically in
response to available resources and technologies, and
the level and structure of energy demand.
 The portfolio is currently dominated by large-scale
hydropower and biomass consumption.
 But the development of large-scale hydropower will be
limited in the future because of substantial
environmental and social impacts.
 Other renewable energies (solar, wind, geothermal, etc.)
are growing rapidly (500-600% in the past two decades),
but from a very small base.
 Estimated total share continues to be around 2-8% in
the next two decades.

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Policies for Energy Security
 Diversifying Energy Import Sources
 Strengthening Ties with Oil Producers
 Investing Overseas Upstream
 Introducing Oil Producers’ Capital into Domestic
Downstream Market
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 In principle, pursuit of energy security by each
PECC economy can contribute to enhance energy
security in whole PECC region.
 However, if initiatives to enhance energy security
conducted too exclusively, tensions could be
generated and escalated among PECC economies,
thus damaging regional energy security.
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International Strategic Alliance for
Energy Security in PECC Region…
 International Cooperation for Crude Oil Storage
 International Cooperation for Crude Oil Exploration
 International Cooperation for Energy Technology
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Thank you very much!
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