Transcript Slide 1

Achieving Constant Velocity
Enables Release Planning
Intel Agile and Lean Development Conference - 2014
Jason Kerby
May 22-23, 2014
Sopot, Poland
Legal Notices
This presentation is for informational purposes only. INTEL MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, IN THIS SUMMARY.
[BunnyPeople, Celeron, Celeron Inside, Centrino, Centrino Inside, Core Inside, i960, Intel, the Intel logo, Intel Atom, Intel Atom Inside, Intel Core, Intel Inside, the Intel Inside logo, Intel
NetBurst, Intel NetMerge, Intel NetStructure, Intel SingleDriver, Intel SpeedStep, Intel Sponsors of Tomorrow., the Intel Sponsors of Tomorrow. logo, Intel StrataFlash, Intel Viiv, Intel
vPro, Intel XScale, InTru, the InTru logo, InTru soundmark, Itanium, Itanium Inside, MCS, MMX, Pentium, Pentium Inside, skoool, the skoool logo, Sound Mark, The Journey Inside, vPro
Inside, VTune, Xeon, and Xeon Inside] are trademarks of Intel Corporation in the U.S. and other countries.
*Other names and brands may be claimed as the property of others.
Microsoft, Windows, and the Windows logo are trademarks, or registered trademarks of Microsoft Corporation in the United States and/or other countries.
Java and all Java based trademarks and logos are trademarks or registered trademarks of Sun Microsystems, Inc. in the U.S. and other countries.
Bluetooth is a trademark owned by its proprietor and used by Intel Corporation under license.
Intel Corporation uses the Palm OS® Ready mark under license from Palm, Inc.
Copyright © 2014, Intel Corporation. All rights reserved.
Introduction
Jason Kerby - 9 years @ Intel - Folsom
– Chipset Manufacturing – Product Development
• Chipset content developer, Test Program Manager, and
currently Chief Engineer for Chipset Product Line
– Over 3 years of Scrum+Rally experience
•
•
•
Team member
Product Owner for Test Programs Scrum
Scrum Master for multiple teams
– Bachelor’s degrees in EE & Psychology
– Master’s in Business Administration – Technology Management
You Juice, Inc.
You’re in charge of a Juice Factory
What would you rather receive?
Supplier
Farm 1
Farm 2
Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5
Day 6
Day 7
Executive Summary
Scrum Teams that want to
maximize effective communications with
stakeholders should develop Release Planning
Capabilities
– In order to prepare for a Release Planning meeting, the
team must first know their capacity
– Only Teams with Constant Velocity can understand their
capacity for any upcoming release
– Therefore, achieving a Constant Velocity should be the
primary goal of any scrum team that wants to make
Release Plans
Agenda – A Case Study
• Two scrum teams of comparable size,
experience and availability
– Preview: Teams’ Release Performance
– Velocity Chart & Release Planning Exercise
– The Path to Constant Velocity
• Key Benefits & Limitations
• Tools to help the Scrum Master
– Retrospective Graphs & Tables
Intel Agile and Lean Development Conference - Intel Confidential
6
350
250
200
Team 1
No commitment
at start;
Growing WIP
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
Accepted
Completed
Defined
Undefined
In-Progress
Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5
Day 6
Day 7
Day 8
Day 9
Day 10
Day 11
Day 12
Day 13
Day 14
Day 15
Day 16
Day 17
Day 18
Day 19
Day 20
Day 21
Day 22
Day 23
Day 24
Day 25
Day 26
Day 27
Day 28
Day 29
Day 30
Day 31
Day 32
Day 33
Day 34
Day 35
Day 36
Day 37
Day 38
Day 39
Day 40
300
Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5
Day 6
Day 7
Day 8
Day 9
Day 10
Day 11
Day 12
Day 13
Day 14
Day 15
Day 16
Day 17
Day 18
Day 19
Day 20
Day 21
Day 22
Day 23
Day 24
Day 25
Day 26
Day 27
Day 28
Day 29
Day 30
Day 31
Day 32
Day 33
Day 34
Day 35
Day 36
Day 37
Day 38
Day 39
Day 40
•
A Preview:
Two Teams’ Release
Performances
Graphs show # of points over a 40-day Release
350
300
Commit 250 pts and
drive to that goal
Accepted
Completed
Defined
Undefined
A Growing Backlog vs. Delivered Commitments
Team 2
250
200
In-Progress
Release Retrospective
• The data from the sprints prior to this
release could have predicted the outcome!
• Let’s go back in time to Release Plan
day…
Only a Consistent Team knows when they will Deliver
Release Capacity Planning
• Say each team has completed their first
seven sprints: can they…
– Predict their future velocity?
– Be confident in their commitments?
• Let’s look at each team’s data…
Only a Consistent Team knows when they will Deliver
•
First step: what’s your
Velocity?
# of accepted points/sprint prior to the Release
Team 1
Team 2
Team 2
76
53
41
1
65
62
2
62
51
55
2
3
65
3
4
5
7
1
41
40
30
0
6
58
4
5
6
Only the team with Constant Velocity can commit to the future
7
Release Capacity Planning
Accepted Points
Sprint # Team 1 Team 2
1
53
62
2
41
51
3
76
55
4
30
65
5
62
40
6
0
58
7
65
41
Total
327
372
Future Mean Prediction
for next 4 sprints
as % of Average
Team 1 Team 2
Std Dev
55%
19%
Max
63%
23%
Min
-100%
-25%
Absolute Numbers
Team 1 Team 2
a=90%; onesided; n=4
Lower
Prediction
Higher
Prediction
% of mean
Team 1
Team 2
24
44
70
62
+/-49%
+/-17%
How many points should be committed in the
upcoming 4-sprint release?
a=90%; one-sided; n=4
Average
47
53
Expected (50% conf)
Std Dev
26
10
Range of possible
deviations from average
Max
76
65
Min
0
40
Min
Max
Team 1
188
Team 2
212
+/-92 (184)
96
280
+/-36 (72)
176
248
Only a Consistent Team knows when they will Deliver
The Path to Constant Velocity &
Release Planning Capability
Smaller
Stories
Quick
Closure
Learn
Daily
Velocity
Better
Sprint
Planning
Constant
Velocity
Release
Planning
A marathon is a collection of many small and consistent steps
Smaller Stories: Story Count
Chart
Team 1
Team2
65
62
58
55
51
41
40
38
36
33
30
20
13
6
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
It’s easier to be consistent when you take smaller steps
Quick Closure: Cycle Time
Graph
Average # of days
stories
are in WIP
Team1
Team2
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Note: x-axis is in months, not sprints
Smaller stories helps a team deliver on a regular cadence
Learn Daily Velocity:
Accepted points vs. person-days
90
1.6
80
1.4
70
1.2
60
1
50
0.83
0.8
40
0.85
0.85
0.8
0.65
0.6
30
1.02
0.8
0.8
3
4
0.94
0.85 0.85
0.89
0.9 0.925
0.4
20
0.2
10
0
0
1
2
Person-days
3
4
Pts. Predicted
5
6
7
Pts. Completed
1
2
5
6
7
Actual Points/Person-day
Team Estimate of Velocity Based on Previous Sprint
Effort/Time = Velocity
8
Better Sprint Planning:
Sprint burn-up Charts
140
140
Team 1
120
Team 2
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Accepted
Completed
Accepted
Completed
In-Progress
Defined
In-Progress
Defined
8
A Group of Individuals vs. A Team Driving Toward a Goal
9
10
Constant Velocity:
Release burn-up Chart
400
350
300
Team 2
250
200
150
100
50
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63
Accepted
Completed
Aimless Driving vs. Driving Toward a Goal
350
250
200
Team 1
No commitment
at start;
Growing WIP
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
Accepted
Completed
Defined
Undefined
In-Progress
Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5
Day 6
Day 7
Day 8
Day 9
Day 10
Day 11
Day 12
Day 13
Day 14
Day 15
Day 16
Day 17
Day 18
Day 19
Day 20
Day 21
Day 22
Day 23
Day 24
Day 25
Day 26
Day 27
Day 28
Day 29
Day 30
Day 31
Day 32
Day 33
Day 34
Day 35
Day 36
Day 37
Day 38
Day 39
Day 40
300
Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5
Day 6
Day 7
Day 8
Day 9
Day 10
Day 11
Day 12
Day 13
Day 14
Day 15
Day 16
Day 17
Day 18
Day 19
Day 20
Day 21
Day 22
Day 23
Day 24
Day 25
Day 26
Day 27
Day 28
Day 29
Day 30
Day 31
Day 32
Day 33
Day 34
Day 35
Day 36
Day 37
Day 38
Day 39
Day 40
•
A Preview:
Two Teams’ Release
Performances
Graphs show # of points over a 40-day Release
350
300
Commit 250 pts and
drive to that goal
Accepted
Completed
Defined
Undefined
A Growing Backlog vs. Delivered Commitments
Team 2
250
200
In-Progress
Key Results
How many points should be committed in the
upcoming 4-sprint release?
Team 1
188
Team 2
212
+/-92 (184)
96
280
+/-36 (72)
176
248
a=90%; one-sided; n=4
Expected (50% conf)
Range of possible
deviations from average
Min
Max
Actual Data vs. Prediction
Completed points
Expected (50% conf)
Difference
Team 1
156
188
-32 (-17%)
Team 2
214
212
2 (1%)
Actual Data vs. Commitment
Committed points at
start of release
Committed points at
end of release
Point Growth
% of committed
points completed at
end of release
Team 1
Team 2
7
247
333
4750%
228
-8%
47%
94%
Only a Consistent Team knows when they will Deliver
Conclusions
• Customers have higher satisfaction:
– A consistent team’s deliverables are predictable
– Teams can make a realistic commitment to deliver
months into the future
• Team Benefits of Release Planning:
– Team 2 members: more confident to commit to a new
feature because they know their velocity
– Easier to understand the trade-offs of new feature requests
• Stakeholders can easily see which feature(s) need to be dropped
to free up capacity for the new request
• Alternatively, the BO will have confidence that adding people to
the team will increase their velocity by the desired amount
Conclusions
• How are the teams performing today?
– Team 2: maintaining the process
– Team 1: still struggling to reduce story size
• Complaint: Adding more stories adds paperwork!
• The Scrum Master and PO should work to clear this
impediment
– by taking an active role in story writing prior to the release
– Use Career Development, Staff Meetings, & 1:1’s to generate big stories
that can be broken down at Release and Sprint Planning sessions
Take Always & Next Steps
• Teams using Scrum or considering Scrum
that want Release Planning Capabilities
should
– Recognize that PO and SM roles are ACTIVE roles
• Maintaining the story backlog, writing meaningful stories and
enforcing small story size takes WORK
– SM must do formal retrospectives every sprint
• Use the template as a way to track the team’s health
• Pick one thing to improve each sprint
Intel Agile and Lean Development Conference - Intel Confidential
22
Acknowledgements
• Thanks to Rajesh Kanakath for giving me
the opportunity to be one of the first in
Chipset Mfg to try Scrum
• Thanks to all the scrum teams that I have
been a part of…
– PCH: Class TP Development, Test Hole Closure, I/O
content development, Core content development
– GT: Module Development
Q&A
• 10 minutes of questions from the audience
Intel Agile and Lean Development Conference - Intel Confidential
24
Additional Information
• Agile Scrum resource:
http://www.scrumalliance.org/
• Contact me at: [email protected]