Climate Change Vulnerability in Norway Socio-economic Perspectives on Policies and Impacts Karen O’Brien CICERO

Approaches to Studying Climate Change Impacts © Seppo Leinonen, www.seppo.net

Impacts of Climatic Change Climatic Change Scenarios (RegClim) First-Order Impacts (Climatic Properties: temperature, precipitation) Second-Order Impacts (Crop Yields) Third-Order Impacts (Regional Productivity) Higher-Order Impacts (Farm Income, Consumer Prices, etc.)

Impact Assessment

Vulnerability Approaches to Impacts 

Vulnerability

describes the extent to which a system is susceptible to sustaining damage from climate change.

Aspects of Vulnerability

 Biophysical vulnerability  Social vulnerability

IPCC Conceptualization of Vulnerability  Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

Sensitivity

 The degree to which a system will respond, either positively or negatively, to a change in climate.

Exposure

 The degree of climate stress upon a particular unit of analysis  Climate stress:  long-term climate conditions   climate variability magnitude and frequency of extreme events

Adaptive Capacity

 The capacity of a system to adjust in response to actual or expected climate stimuli, their effects, or impacts.

IPCC conclusion:

”Those with the least resources have the least capacity to adapt and are the most vulnerable.”

Is Norway vulnerable to climate change?

Which regions, sectors, and social groups within Norway are most vulnerable to climate change?

Climate Change and Extreme Events

Flood a Fylke Average annual disbursement 80-00, mill NOK, (2001 value) Storm a Avalanche/ landslide a

Møre og Romsdal Hedmark Akershus/Oslo Nordland Hordaland Sør-Trøndelag Sogn og Fjordane Oppland Nord-Trøndelag Troms Rogaland Buskerud Telemark Østfold Finnmark Vestfold Vest-Agder Aust-Agder 18,0 15,3 14,1 12,3 10,3 10,3 1,7 61,7 48,1 46,0 45,0 27,7 24,2 18,7 21,3 19,3 22,0 18,1 5.4 % 92.1 % 53.5 % 4.2 % 7.2 % 5.6 % 10.3 % 81.0 % 19.1 % 5.8 % 12.1 % 46.6 % 46.8 % 47.7 % 3.7 % 19.8 % 16.8 % 31.7 % 91.2 % 7.3 % 42.8 % 87.3 % 81.7 % 86.6 % 79.4 % 14.5 % 72.3 % 84.8 % 85.8 % 33.5 % 41.7 % 48.6 % 79.5 % 69.1 % 80.3 % 60.9 % 3.2 % 0.5 % 3.6 % 8.5 % 11.0 % 7.6 % 9.7 % 4.3 % 8.5 % 8.9 % 2.0 % 19.8 % 11.1 % 3.6 % 16.6 % 10.3 % 2.9 % 7.2 %

Vulnerable sectors:

 Agriculture  Forestry  Winter tourism

Indicators of biophysical vulnerability: Agricultural sector  Spring rainfall  Autumn rainfall  Length of growing season  Spring frost/thaw  Autumn frost/thaw  Snow depth

Indicators of social vulnerability: agricultural sector

Climate sensitivity

 Employment in agricultural sector, %

Economic capacity

  Untied public income (taxes and govt. transfers), NOK Employment growth prognosis, %

Demographic capacity

   Dependency rate, % Aging working population, % Net migration rate, avg. 91-01 %

How correct are these indicators?

 Case studies must be carried out to verify the indicators selected, and identify factors that shape vulnerability in Norwegian municipalities.

 Stakeholder dialogues: Voss and Oppdal (June 2003)

Vulnerability is shaped by numerous social and biophysical factors  Social welfare policies  Globalization and regionalization  Disease outbreaks

Vulnerability to Climate Change Policies

Sensitivity

 % employment in secondary sector  % of CO 2 emissions coming from industry

Adaptive capacity

 Economic factors  Demographic factors

Vulnerability:

 A differential concept  A dynamic concept  Scale dependent  Shaped by multiple stressors

A vulnerability approach can improve our understanding of socio economic perspectives on climate impacts and policies, and help in identifying and targeting adaptation strategies.

Thanks to the project team!

Asbjørn Aaheim, Guro Aandahl, Sjur Kasa, Bård Romstad, Linda Sygna, Heather Tompkins, Anders Undertun (CICERO) Geir Orderud and Bjørnar Sæter (NIBR)