Transcript Tritium Release Experiments

TBM Costing Lessons from Recent ITER Activities
Scott Willms
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Presented at
INL
August 10, 2005
Outline of preparing ITER TEP scope/schedule/budget
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Establish mission- functional specifications
Establish key quantitative design specifications
Assess the state-of-the-art-Make technology choices
Consider the phases of the project-conceptual, preliminary, final
Identify key interfaces
Establish basic organization
Establish work elements (beginnings of work breakdown structure)
Completeness-Categories explicitly included in the TEP procurement package
Establish WBS
Costing
Schedule
Expenditure profile
Cost savings
Risk
Risk results in cost
Finalize package
Note that this is iterative process
Establish mission- functional specifications
• What is the qualitative purpose of the system?
• Example: TEP must
– Recover hydrogen isotopes from impurities such as water and
methane
– Deliver purified, mixed hydrogen isotopes to the ISS
– Dispose of non-tritium species
• Elements of TBM mission statement
– Fundamental data collection?
– Testing of interfaces?
– Integrated operation?
Establish key quantitative design specifications
• The major design specifications can be a relatively short list
• TEP Design Specifications
– Lose no more than 1 Ci/day to the Vent Detritiation System
– Overall decontamination factor (DF) of 108
– Process gas from 450 s and 3000 s pulses at a flowrate of 150
SLPM (253 Pam3/s).
Assess the state-of-the-art/make technology choices
Control Panel
First Stage PMR
(Second Stage
Hidden Behind)
Metal Bellow
Pump
Turbo Pump
Caper-FzK
PMR-US
JFCU-JA(US)
Prepare key system drawings
-TEP process flow diagram (preliminary design)
TEP- Process and instrumentation diagram (preliminary
design)
Mechanical drawings (final design)
Identify key interfaces
• Who sends something to us and what are they sending?
• Who are we sending stuff to and what are we sending?
• TEP examples
– TEP accepts gas from the torus vacuum pumping system
– TEP sends pure DT to the isotope separation system and to the
vent detritiation system
– Tritium plant sends material to fueling, etc.
Establish basic organization
• What are the key roles and responsibilities?
• Who needs to be involved?
• TEP examples
– The ITER International Team is
• The design authority (adopting specifications)
• Change control
• Responsible for the overall success of the project
– A technical team is responsible for
• Technical expertise
• Recommend design and design changes (specifications)
• Interfacing with other systems
– A fabrication entity (e.g. industry) is responsible for
• Fabrication to design specifications
Establish work elements (beginnings of work
breakdown structure)
Work Elements-Categories explicitly included in the
TEP procurement package
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Overhead costs
Detailed design (limited to manufacturing design)
Purchasing/fabrication
Factory testing
Packaging and transportation
On-site installation/assembly
On-site testing
Documentation and QA
Technical supervision
Recommended spares
AFI (Allowance for Indeterminants)
Work Elements-Categories not explicitly included in the
TEP procurement package
•
•
•
•
Contingency
Supporting R&D
Detailed design (pre-manufacturing design)
Engineering follow: Preparing, awarding and following
procurement package contracts
•
•
•
•
•
Installation
Design basis documentation
Design integration
Cost savings
Special categories: For TEP FMEA results need to
be incorporated into design
Establish WBS
WBS Number
1.3.2.1.1
1.3.2.1.2
1.3.2.1.2.1
Description
Administration
R&D
TEP R&D
Tritium Plant R&D
1.3.2.1.2.3
1.3.2.1.3
1.3.2.1.3.1
Engineering
Design
TEP Design
1.3.2.1.3.1.1
1.3.2.1.3.1.2
Tritium Plant
Integration
Title III
1.3.2.1.3.2
1.3.2.1.4
1.3.2.1.6
Fabrication/Procurement
Spares
Total
Comments
Includes general management of the TEP procurement
package, scheduling, controls and reporting
This budget will be used to obtain or confirm key
technical parameters as the design progresses
The risk associated with operating the scaled-up Tritium
Plant will be mitigated in part by performing dynamic
modeling
Final design and other: Considerable work is needed to
finalize the design. Other specific tasks include
incorporation of FMEA results and design basis
documentation.
Participation in activities to ensure TEP is properly
integrated with other tritium handling systems: Includes
participation in Tritium Plant Integration Group activities
Technical guidance for fabrication contract: Includes
technical preparation of RFQ, contract award,
engineering follow and guidance, and acceptance
testing
All activities expected to be subcontracted to industry for
TEP fabrication and procurement (ITER Estimate)
Day one spares recommended by ITER. May also be
subcontracted to industry. (ITER Estimate)
Costing
Cost estimation methods and sources
• Conceptual/preliminary design
– Scale from existing experience
– Compare to similar estimates from others
– Estimate is rough and has large contingency
• Preliminary/final design
– Full bottoms up estimate
– Industrial bids
– Estimate is more accurate and has lower contingency
Schedule
When developing schedule consider
• Consider if this is a “first-of-a-kind” or “nth-of-a-kind” system
• Consider all elements in WBS
• But also consider many other things that take time
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Staffing
training program completion
completion of operator training (five
shifts)
readiness reviews
corrective actions
nuclear facility license completion
tritium inventory management systems
Calibrations
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
control system tuning
as-built performance characterization
as-built drawing completion
operating procedure preparation, shakedown, revision and publication
alarm/interlock testing
rework/replacement of systems
incorporation of Tritium Plant control into
overall ITER control system
etc.
Example TEP procurement schedule
Expenditure profile
• With cost and schedule done, an expenditure profile can be
prepared
Cost savings
• There may be opportunities to save cost by
– Revising specifications
– Leveraging with existing work
– Moving the work elsewhere (e.g. to the operations phase)
Risk
• Every project has risk (i.e. likelihood that project goals will not
be met on schedule and budget)
– There is relatively straight forward risk
•
•
•
•
Rain
Key individuals quit
Supplier delays
Contingency for n-th of a kind construction is 5-10%
– And there is more complicated risk
• Various possibilities
–
–
–
–
We tried this once on a lab bench and it worked
We’re pretty sure this technology will work
We’re sure we can make it work, but we don’t yet know how
We have no idea how to make this work
• Contingency for first-of-a-kind work might typically run 20-50%
• (Apollo contingency ended up being 100%)
Risk results in cost. Risk can be managed
• List technologies and processes needed for the project
• Identify the risk associated with each step
• Where risk is unacceptable it must be mitigated by:
–
–
–
–
Perform R&D (adds cost)
Design around it (adds cost if redesign is needed)
Add contingency (adds cost)
In this way risk is “quantified” as additional cost to the project
• Note: Fundamental R&D drives to discovery. Project R&D
drives to minimizing risk so that project goals are met. While
both are called R&D, the two types of R&D are quite different.
Summary of preparing ITER TEP
scope/schedule/budget
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Establish mission- functional specifications
Establish key quantitative design specifications
Assess the state-of-the-art-Make technology choices
Consider the phases of the project-conceptual, preliminary, final
Identify key interfaces
Establish basic organization
Establish work elements (beginnings of work breakdown structure)
Completeness-Categories explicitly included in the TEP procurement package
Establish WBS
Costing
Schedule
Expenditure profile
Cost savings
Risk
Risk results in cost
Finalize package
Note that this is iterative process