Week 1 - University of Essex
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Transcript Week 1 - University of Essex
SC968
Panel data methods for sociologists
Lecture 3
Fixed and random effects models
continued
Overview
Review
Between- and within-individual variation
Types of variables: time-invariant, time-varying and trend
Individual heterogeneity
Within and between estimators
The implementation of fixed and random effects models in STATA
Statistical properties of fixed and random effects models
Choosing between fixed and random effects: the Hausman test
Estimating coefficients on time-invariant variables in FE
Thinking about specification
Between- and within-individual variation
If you have a sample with repeated
observations on the same individuals, there
are two sources of variance within the
sample:
The fact that individuals are systematically
different from one another (betweenindividual variation)
• Joe lives in Colchester, Jane lives in
Wivenhoe
The fact that individuals’ behaviour varies
between observations (within-individual
variation)
• Joe moves from Colchester to Wivenhoe
How to think about two sources of
variation in panel data...
Between variation
B ( xi x )
i
Within variation
W ( xij xi )
2
i
j
How does an individual vary, on
average, from the sample
mean?
W1
Jane
W2
2
j
How does an individual vary at any
particular time point from his
individual mean?
W3
W4
W5
Person
Mean
20
20
20
20
20
20
15
5
6
20
4
10
Joe
Average income for sample: £10 per year
xtsum in STATA
.
.
Similar to ordinary “sum” command
xtset pid wave
panel variable:
time variable:
delta:
pid (unbalanced)
wave, 1 to 15, but with gaps
1 unit
xtsum female partner age ue_sick LIKERT wave if nwaves == 15
Variable
Mean
Std. Dev.
Min
Max
Observations
female
overall
between
within
.5397574
.4984321
.4989059
0
0
0
.5397574
1
1
.5397574
N =
16324
n =
1237
T-bar = 13.1964
partner
overall
between
within
.6892954
.4627963
.4217842
.243531
0
0
-.244038
1
1
1.622629
N =
16292
n =
1234
T-bar = 13.2026
age
overall
between
within
40.03349
19.74332
19.27238
4.31763
0
6.4
31.30015
98
90.93333
54.30015
ue_sick
overall
between
within
.0672924
.2505353
.1738938
.1852756
0
0
-.866041
1
1
1.000626
N =
16302
n =
1237
T-bar = 13.1787
LIKERT
overall
between
within
11.26167
5.344825
3.609665
4.030974
0
0
-6.738331
36
29.69231
35.12834
N =
15661
n =
1225
T-bar = 12.7845
wave
overall
between
within
8
4.320605
0
4.320605
1
8
1
15
8
15
N =
n =
T =
N =
n =
T =
19410
1294
15
19410
1294
15
xtsum in STATA
.
.
Similar to ordinary “sum” command
xtset pid wave
panel variable:
time variable:
delta:
pid (unbalanced)
wave, 1 to 15, but with gaps
1 unit
Have chosen a balanced sample
xtsum female partner age ue_sick LIKERT wave if nwaves == 15
Variable
female
Mean
Std. Dev.
Min
Max
Observations
.4984321
.4989059
0
0
0
.5397574
1
1
.5397574
N =
16324
n =
1237
T-bar = 13.1964
N =
16292
n =
1234
T-bar = 13.2026
overall
between
within
.5397574
partner
overall
between
within
.6892954
.4627963
.4217842
.243531
0
0
-.244038
1
1
1.622629
age
overall
between
within
40.03349
19.74332
19.27238
4.31763
0
6.4
31.30015
98
90.93333
54.30015
ue_sick
overall
between
within
.0672924
.2505353
.1738938
.1852756
0
0
-.866041
1
1
1.000626
N =
16302
n =
1237
T-bar = 13.1787
LIKERT
overall
between
within
11.26167
5.344825
3.609665
4.030974
0
0
-6.738331
36
29.69231
35.12834
N =
15661
n =
1225
T-bar = 12.7845
wave
overall
between
within
8
4.320605
0
4.320605
1
8
1
15
8
15
N =
n =
T =
N =
n =
T =
19410
1294
15
19410
1294
15
All variation is
“between”
Most variation
is “between”,
because it’s
fairly rare to
switch between
having and not
having a
partner
All variation is within,
because this is a
balanced sample
More on xtsum….
.
.
xtset pid wave
panel variable:
time variable:
delta:
pid (unbalanced)
wave, 1 to 15, but with gaps
1 unit
xtsum female partner age ue_sick LIKERT wave if nwaves == 15
Variable
female
Mean
Std. Dev.
Min
Max
Observations
.4984321
.4989059
0
0
0
.5397574
1
1
.5397574
N =
16324
n =
1237
T-bar = 13.1964
N =
16292
n =
1234
T-bar = 13.2026
overall
between
within
.5397574
partner
overall
between
within
.6892954
.4627963
.4217842
.243531
0
0
-.244038
1
1
1.622629
age
overall
between
within
40.03349
19.74332
19.27238
4.31763
0
6.4
31.30015
98
90.93333
54.30015
ue_sick
overall
between
within
.0672924
.2505353
.1738938
.1852756
0
0
-.866041
1
1
1.000626
N =
16302
n =
1237
T-bar = 13.1787
LIKERT
overall
between
within
11.26167
5.344825
3.609665
4.030974
0
0
-6.738331
36
29.69231
35.12834
N =
15661
n =
1225
T-bar = 12.7845
overall
between
within
8
4.320605
0
4.320605
1
8
1
15
8
15
wave
N =
n =
T =
N =
n =
T =
19410
1294
15
Observations with
non-missing
variable
Number of
individuals
Average number
of time-points
Min & max refer to xi-bar
19410
1294
15
Min & max refer to individual deviation from own averages, with global averages added back in.
Types of variable
Those which vary between individuals but hardly ever over time
Those which vary over time, but not between individuals
The retail price index
National unemployment rates
Age, in a cohort study
Those which vary both over time and between individuals
Sex
Ethnicity
Parents’ social class when you were 14
The type of primary school you attended (once you’ve become an adult)
Income
Health
Psychological wellbeing
Number of children you have
Marital status
Trend variables
Vary between individuals and over time, but in highly predictable ways:
Age
Year
Within and between estimators
Individual-specific, fixed over time
yit xit ui it
Varies over time, usual assumptions apply (mean zero,
homoscedastic, uncorrelated with x or u or itself)
mean of all observations for personi
y i x i ui i
This is the “between” estimator
subtracting :
( yit y i ) ( xit x i ) ( it i )
And this is the “within” estimator – “fixed effects”
And finally,therandomeffectsestimator
is a weightedaverageof the wit hin and bet ween estimators
( yit y i ) (1 ) ( xit x i ) {(1 )ui ( it i )}
θ measures the weight given to
between-group variation, and is
derived from the variances of ui
and εi
Individual heterogeneity: one reason to
used fixed effects
A very simple concept: people are different!
In social science, when we talk about heterogeneity, we are really
talking about unobservable (or unobserved) heterogeneity.
Time invariant heterogeneity
Observed heterogeneity: differences in education levels, or parental
background, or anything else that we can measure and control for in regressions
Unobserved heterogeneity: anything which is fundamentally unmeasurable, or
which is rather poorly measured, or which does not happen to be measured in
the particular data set we are using.
Height (among adults)
Innate intelligence
Antenatal care of mother
Time variant kinds of heterogeneity
Social network size
Beauty
Weight
Unobserved heterogeneity
yi xi11 xi 2 2 xi33 ......... xiK K ui i
Extend the OLS equation we used in Week 1, breaking the error term down into
two components: one representing the time invariant, unobservable
characteristics of the person, and the other representing genuine “error”.
In cross-sectional analysis, there is no way of distinguishing between the two.
But in panel data analysis, we have repeated observations – and this allows us
to distinguish between them.
Fixed effects (within estimator)
yit xit ui it
( yit y i ) ( xit x i ) ( it i )
Allows us to “net out” time-invariant unobserved characteristics
Ignores between-group variation – so it’s an inefficient estimator
However, few assumptions are required, so FE is generally consistent
and unbiased
Disadvantage: can’t estimate the effects of any time-invariant variables
Also called least squares dummy variable model (LDV)
Analysis of covariance (CV) model
Between estimator
yit xit ui it
y i x i ui i
Not much used
It’s inefficient compared to random effects
It doesn’t use as much information as is available in the data (only uses means)
Assumption required: that ui is uncorrelated with xi
Except to calculate the θ parameter for random effects, but STATA does this, not you!
Easy to see why: if they were correlated, how could one decide how much of the
variation in y to attribute to the x’s (via the betas) as opposed to the correlation?
Can’t estimate effects of variables where mean is invariant over individuals
Age in a cohort study
Macro-level variables
Random effects estimator
yit xit ui it
( yit y i ) (1 ) ( xit x i ) {(1 )ui ( it i )}
Weighted average of within and between models
Assumption required: that ui is uncorrelated with xi
Rather heroic assumption – think of examples
Will see a test for this later
Uses both within- and between-group variation, so makes best use of the
data and is efficient
But unless the assumption holds that ui is uncorrelated with xi , it is
inconsistent
AKA one-way error components model, variance component model, GLS
estimator (STATA also allows ML random effects)
Consistency versus efficiency.
Random effects clearly does worse here…..
“True” value of betas
Inconsistent but efficient
Consistent but inefficient
…. But arguably, random effects do a better job of getting close
to the “true” coefficient here.
“True” value of betas
Random effects
Fixed effects
Testing between FE and RE
Sex does not
appear
Hausman test
Hypothesis H0: ui is uncorrelated with xi
Hypothesis H1: ui is correlated with xi
Fixed effects is consistent under both H0 and H1
Random effects is efficient, and consistent under H 0 (but inconsistent under H1)
.
quietly xtreg LIKERT female ue_sick partner age age2 badh, fe
.
estimates store fixed
.
quietly xtreg LIKERT female ue_sick partner age age2 badh, re
.
hausman fixed .
Coefficients
(B)
(b)
.
fixed
1.951485
-.298668
.1141748
-.0011833
1.230831
ue_sick
partner
age
age2
badhealth
2.045302
-.1947691
.1058038
-.0011062
1.433115
(b-B)
Difference
sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B))
S.E.
-.0938175
-.1038989
.008371
-.0000771
-.2022848
.0572845
.0677693
.0157531
.0001624
.0187202
b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg
B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg
Example
from last
week
Test:
Ho:
difference in coefficients not systematic
chi2(5) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B)
123.96
=
Random
0.0000
Prob>chi2 =
effects rejected (inconsistent)
in favour of fixed effects (consistent
but inefficient)
HOWEVER
Big disciplinary divide
Economists swear by the Hausman test and rarely report random
effects
Other disciplines (eg psychology) consider other factors such as
explanatory power.
Estimating FE in STATA
.
xtreg LIKERT female ue_sick partner age age2 badh, fe
Fixed-effects (within) regression
Group variable: pid
“R-square-like”
R-sq:
statistic
within = 0.0501
between = 0.1906
overall = 0.1285
corr(u_i, Xb)
Peaks at age 48
Number of obs
Number of groups
Coef.
female
ue_sick
partner
age
age2
badhealth
_cons
(dropped)
1.951485
-.298668
.1141748
-.0011833
1.230831
6.252975
sigma_u
sigma_e
rho
3.9934565
4.0525618
.49265449
F test that all u_i=0:
24204
3317
Obs per group: min =
avg =
max =
1
7.3
14
F(5,20882)
Prob > F
= 0.1561
LIKERT
=
=
Std. Err.
.1394164
.118635
.0214403
.0002209
.0428556
.4932977
t
14.00
-2.52
5.33
-5.36
28.72
12.68
P>|t|
0.000
0.012
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
=
=
[95% Conf. Interval]
1.678218
-.5312018
.0721501
-.0016163
1.14683
5.286073
(fraction of variance due to u_i)
F(3316, 20882) =
4.56
220.44
0.0000
2.224752
-.0661342
.1561994
-.0007503
1.314831
7.219877
“u” and “e” are the two parts
of the error term
Prob > F = 0.0000
Between regression:
.
Not much used, but useful to compare coefficients with fixed effects
xtreg LIKERT female ue_sick partner age age2 badh, be
Between regression (regression on group means)
Group variable: pid
Number of obs
Number of groups
=
=
24204
3317
R-sq:
Obs per group: min =
avg =
max =
1
7.3
14
within = 0.0480
between = 0.2322
overall = 0.1482
sd(u_i + avg(e_i.))=
F(6,3310)
Prob > F
3.833357
LIKERT
Coef.
female
ue_sick
partner
age
age2
badhealth
_cons
1.476659
2.038192
-.0101941
.0827335
-.0009489
2.275832
3.953941
Std. Err.
.1350226
.312191
.1777423
.0219026
.0002263
.0926521
.4430909
t
10.94
6.53
-0.06
3.78
-4.19
24.56
8.92
P>|t|
0.000
0.000
0.954
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
=
=
166.80
0.0000
[95% Conf. Interval]
1.211923
1.426085
-.35869
.0397895
-.0013927
2.094171
3.085181
1.741395
2.650299
.3383019
.1256775
-.0005052
2.457493
4.822701
Coefficient on
“partner” was
negative and
significant in FE
model.
In FE, the “partner”
coeff really measures
the events of gaining
or losing a partner
Random effects regression
.
xtreg LIKERT female ue_sick partner age age2 badh, re theta
Random-effects GLS regression
Group variable: pid
Number of obs
Number of groups
=
=
24204
3317
R-sq:
Obs per group: min =
avg =
max =
1
7.3
14
within = 0.0500
between = 0.2239
overall = 0.1471
Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian
corr(u_i, X)
= 0 (assumed)
min
0.1986
5%
0.1986
theta
median
0.5482
95%
0.6629
Std. Err.
Wald chi2(6)
Prob > chi2
LIKERT
Coef.
female
ue_sick
partner
age
age2
badhealth
_cons
1.493431
2.045302
-.1947691
.1058038
-.0011062
1.433115
5.181864
.1259931
.1271039
.0973734
.014544
.0001498
.0385506
.3137662
sigma_u
sigma_e
rho
3.0248563
4.0525618
.3577895
(fraction of variance due to u_i)
11.85
16.09
-2.00
7.27
-7.39
37.17
16.52
2013.32
0.0000
Option “theta” gives a summary
of weights
max
0.6629
z
=
=
P>|z|
0.000
0.000
0.045
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
[95% Conf. Interval]
1.246489
1.796183
-.3856175
.0772981
-.0013998
1.357558
4.566894
1.740373
2.294422
-.0039207
.1343094
-.0008126
1.508673
5.796835
And what about OLS?
OLS simply treats within- and between-group variation as the same
Pools data across waves
.
reg LIKERT female ue_sick partner age age2 badh
Source
SS
df
MS
Model
Residual
103583.505
6
591239.694 24197
17263.9175
24.4344214
Total
694823.199 24203
28.7081436
LIKERT
Coef.
female
ue_sick
partner
age
age2
badhealth
_cons
1.409466
2.031815
-.0751296
.0983746
-.0010613
1.841796
4.450393
Std. Err.
.0640651
.1240757
.0769271
.0103316
.0001049
.0357165
.2212733
t
22.00
16.38
-0.98
9.52
-10.12
51.57
20.11
Number of obs
F( 6, 24197)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
P>|t|
0.000
0.000
0.329
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
=
=
=
=
=
=
24204
706.54
0.0000
0.1491
0.1489
4.9431
[95% Conf. Interval]
1.283895
1.788619
-.2259116
.078124
-.001267
1.771789
4.016684
1.535038
2.275011
.0756524
.1186252
-.0008557
1.911802
4.884102
Comparing models
Compare coefficients between models
Reasonably similar – differences in “partner” and “badhealth” coeffs
R-squareds are similar
Within and between estimators maximise within and between r-2 respectively.
FE
Female
Ue_sick
Partner
Age
Age-2
Badhealth
Cons
Within R2
Between r2
Overall r2
1.95
-0.30
0.11
-0.00
1.23
6.25
***
**
***
***
***
***
0.050
0.191
0.129
RE
1.49 ***
2.04 ***
-1.94 ***
0.11 **
-0.00 ***
1.43 **
5.18 ***
BE
1.47 ***
2.03 ***
-0.01
0.08 ***
-0.00 ***
2.28 ***
3.95 ***
OLS
1.41 ***
2.03 ***
-0.08
0.10 ***
-0.00 ***
1.84 ***
4.45 ***
0.050
0.224
0.147
0.048
0.232
0.148
0.149
Test whether pooling data is valid
yit xit ui it
If the ui do not vary between individuals, they can be treated as part of α and OLS
is fine.
Breusch-Pagan Lagrange multiplier test
H0 Variance of ui = 0
H1 Variance of ui not equal to zero
If H0 is not rejected, you can pool the data and use OLS
Post-estimation test after random effects
.
quietly xtreg LIKERT female ue_sick partner age age2 badh, re
.
xttest0
Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for random effects
LIKERT[pid,t] = Xb + u[pid] + e[pid,t]
Estimated results:
Var
LIKERT
e
u
Test:
28.70814
16.42326
9.149756
sd = sqrt(Var)
5.357998
4.052562
3.024856
Var(u) = 0
chi2(1) = 10816.48
Prob > chi2 =
0.0000
Thinking about the within and between
estimators…..
y i xi ui i
( yit y i ) ( xit xi ) ( it i )
Both between and FE models written with the same coefficient vector β, but no
reason why they should be the same.
Between: βj measures the difference in y associated with a one-unit difference in the
average value of variable xj between individuals – essentially a cross-sectional
concept
Within: βj measures the difference associated with a one-unit increase in variable xj at
individual level – essentially a longitudinal concept
Random effects, as a weighted average of the two, constrains both βs to be the
same.
Excellent article at http://www.stata.com/support/faqs/stat/xt.html
And lots more at http://www.stata.com/support/faqs/stat/#models
Examples
Example 1:
Consider estimating a wage equation, and including a set of regional dummies,
with S-E the omitted group.
Wages in (eg) the N-W are lower, so the estimated between coefficient on N-W
will be negative.
However, in the within regression, we observe the effects of people moving to
the N-W. Presumably they wouldn’t move without a reasonable incentive. So, the
estimated within coefficient may even be positive – or at least, it’s likely to be a
lot less negative.
Example 2:
Estimate the relationship between family income and children’s educational
outcomes
The between-group estimates measure how well the children of richer
families do, relative to the children of poorer families – we know this
estimate is likely to be large and significant.
The within-group estimates measure how children’s outcomes change as
their own family’s income changes. This coefficient may well be much
smaller.
FE and time-invariant variables
Reformulating the regression equation to distinguish between time-varying and
time-invariant variables:
yit xit zi ui it
Residual
Timevarying
variables:
income,
health
Timeinvariant
variables –
eg sex, race
Individual-specific
fixed effect
Inconveniently, fixed effects washes out the z’s, so does not produce
estimates of γ.
But there is a way!
Requires the z variable to be uncorrelated with u’s
Coefficients on time-invariant variables
Run FE in the normal way
Use estimates to predict the residuals
Use the between estimator to regress the residuals on the time-invariant variables
Done!
Only use this if RE is rejected: otherwise, RE provides best estimates of all coefficients
Going back to the previous example,
.
quietly xtreg LIKERT female ue_sick partner age age2 badh, fe
.
predict FE_RESID, ue
(13352 missing values generated)
.
xtreg FE_RESID female, be
Between regression (regression on group means)
Group variable: pid
Number of obs
Number of groups
=
=
24204
3317
R-sq:
Obs per group: min =
avg =
max =
1
7.3
14
within = 0.0000
between = 0.0400
overall = 0.0212
sd(u_i + avg(e_i.))=
F(1,3315)
Prob > F
3.913298
FE_RESID
Coef.
female
_cons
1.599518
-.7288892
Std. Err.
.1360426
.0984186
t
11.76
-7.41
P>|t|
0.000
0.000
=
=
138.24
0.0000
[95% Conf. Interval]
1.332782
-.9218564
1.866254
-.5359219
From previous slide…
Female
Ue_sick
Partner
Age
Age-2
Badhealth
Cons
FE
1.95 ***
-0.30 **
0.11 ***
-0.00 ***
1.23 ***
6.25 ***
RE
1.49 ***
2.04 ***
-1.94 ***
0.11 **
-0.00 ***
1.43 **
5.18 ***
BE
1.47 ***
2.03 ***
-0.01
0.08 ***
-0.00 ***
2.28 ***
3.95 ***
OLS
1.41 ***
2.03 ***
-0.08
0.10 ***
-0.00 ***
1.84 ***
4.45 ***
Within R2
Between r2
Overall r2
0.050
0.191
0.129
0.050
0.224
0.147
0.048
0.232
0.148
0.149
Our estimate of 1.60 for the coefficient on “female” is slightly higher than, but definitely in the
same ball-park as, those produced by the other methods.
Improving specification
Recall our problem with the “partner” coefficient
OLS and between estimates show no significant relationship between
partnership status and LIKERT scores
FE and RE show a significant negative relationship.
FE estimates coefficient on deviation from mean – likely to reflect moving in
together (which makes you temporarily happy) and splitting up (which makes
you temporarily sad).
Investigate this by including variables to capture these events
Female
Ue_sick
Partner
Age
Age-2
Badhealth
Cons
FE
1.95 ***
-0.30 **
0.11 ***
-0.00 ***
1.23 ***
6.25 ***
RE
1.49 ***
2.04 ***
-1.94 ***
0.11 **
-0.00 ***
1.43 **
5.18 ***
BE
1.47 ***
2.03 ***
-0.01
0.08 ***
-0.00 ***
2.28 ***
3.95 ***
OLS
1.41 ***
2.03 ***
-0.08
0.10 ***
-0.00 ***
1.84 ***
4.45 ***
Within R2
Between r2
Overall r2
0.050
0.191
0.129
0.050
0.224
0.147
0.048
0.232
0.148
0.149
Generate variables reflecting changes
.
sort pid wave
.
gen get_pnr = (partner == 1 & partner[_n-1] == 0) if pid == pid[_n-1] & wave == wave[_n-1] + 1
(5078 missing values generated)
.
gen lose_pnr = (partner == 0 & partner[_n-1] == 1) if pid == pid[_n-1] & wave == wave[_n-1] + 1
(5078 missing values generated)
Note: we will lose some observations
Fixed effects
.
.
xtreg LIKERT partner get_pnr lose_pnr female ue_sick age age2 badh, fe
Fixed-effects (within) regression
Group variable: pid
Number of obs
Number of groups
=
=
21264
2764
R-sq:
Obs per group: min =
avg =
max =
1
7.7
13
within = 0.0574
between = 0.1839
overall = 0.1333
corr(u_i, Xb)
F(7,18493)
Prob > F
= 0.1460
LIKERT
Coef.
partner
get_pnr
lose_pnr
female
ue_sick
age
age2
badhealth
_cons
.3186429
-.0793952
2.64016
(dropped)
1.894659
.0734274
-.0008799
1.284593
6.796602
sigma_u
sigma_e
rho
3.7857335
4.030519
.46871319
F test that all u_i=0:
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
=
=
160.80
0.0000
[95% Conf. Interval]
.143112
.2116739
.2371252
2.23
-0.38
11.13
0.026
0.708
0.000
.0381301
-.4942956
2.175372
.5991557
.3355053
3.104947
.1530311
.0240822
.0002464
.045967
.5570247
12.38
3.05
-3.57
27.95
12.20
0.000
0.002
0.000
0.000
0.000
1.594704
.0262241
-.0013629
1.194494
5.704782
2.194614
.1206308
-.0003969
1.374693
7.888422
(fraction of variance due to u_i)
F(2763, 18493) =
4.83
Prob > F = 0.0000
Coeff on having a
partner now
slightly positive;
getting a partner is
insignificant;
losing a partner is
now large and
positive
Random effects
.
xtreg LIKERT partner get_pnr lose_pnr female ue_sick age age2 badh, re
Random-effects GLS regression
Group variable: pid
Number of obs
Number of groups
=
=
21264
2764
R-sq:
Obs per group: min =
avg =
max =
1
7.7
13
within = 0.0571
between = 0.2213
overall = 0.1545
Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian
corr(u_i, X)
= 0 (assumed)
LIKERT
Coef.
partner
get_pnr
lose_pnr
female
ue_sick
age
age2
badhealth
_cons
.281375
-.0897335
2.76626
1.450748
1.892352
.0719139
-.0007748
1.470353
5.457217
sigma_u
sigma_e
rho
2.9604042
4.030519
.3504325
Std. Err.
.113251
.204547
.2284331
.1324675
.1388821
.0159222
.0001621
.0414036
.3436851
Wald chi2(8)
Prob > chi2
z
2.48
-0.44
12.11
10.95
13.63
4.52
-4.78
35.51
15.88
P>|z|
0.013
0.661
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
=
=
1922.41
0.0000
[95% Conf. Interval]
.0594072
-.4906382
2.318539
1.191116
1.620148
.0407069
-.0010926
1.389203
4.783606
(fraction of variance due to u_i)
.5033428
.3111713
3.21398
1.710379
2.164556
.1031209
-.000457
1.551502
6.130827
similar
Proportion of total residual
variance attributable to the
u’s - c.f. random slopes
models later
Collating the coefficients:
Partner
Get partner
Lose partner
FE
0.32 **
-0.07
2.64 ***
RE
0.28 **
-0.09 **
2.77 ***
BE
0.29
-2.85 **
7.17 ***
OLS
0.17 **
-0.10
3.19 ***
Partner
FE
-0.30 **
RE
-1.94 ***
BE
-0.01
OLS
-0.08
Hausman test again
Have we cleaned up the specification sufficiently that the Hausman test will now
fail to reject random effects?
.
quietly xtreg LIKERT partner get_pnr lose_pnr female ue_sick age age2 badh, fe
.
estimates store fixed
.
quietly xtreg LIKERT partner get_pnr lose_pnr female ue_sick age age2 badh, re
.
hausman fixed .
Coefficients
(b)
(B)
fixed
.
partner
get_pnr
lose_pnr
ue_sick
age
age2
badhealth
.3186429
-.0793952
2.64016
1.894659
.0734274
-.0008799
1.284593
.281375
-.0897335
2.76626
1.892352
.0719139
-.0007748
1.470353
(b-B)
Difference
.0372679
.0103383
-.1260999
.0023072
.0015135
-.0001051
-.1857594
sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B))
S.E.
.0874944
.0544645
.0636136
.0642673
.0180675
.0001855
.0199676
b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg
B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg
Test:
Ho:
difference in coefficients not systematic
chi2(7) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B)
=
116.04
Prob>chi2 =
0.0000
No! Although the chi-squared statistic is smaller now (at 116.04), than previously
(at 123.96)
Thinking about time
Under FE, including “wave” or “year” as a continuous variable is not very useful,
since it is treated as the deviation from the individual’s mean.
We may not want to treat time as a linear trend (for example, if we are looking
for a cut point related to social policy)
Also, wave is very much correlated with individuals’ ages
Can do FE or RE including time periods as dummies
May be referred to as “two-way fixed effects”
Generate each dummy variable separately, or….
local i = 1
while `i' <= 15 {
gen byte W`i' = (wave == `i')
local i = `i' + 1
}
Time variables insignificant here (as we
would expect)
.
xtreg LIKERT partner get_pnr lose_pnr female ue_sick age age2 badh W*, fe
Fixed-effects (within) regression
Group variable: pid
Number of obs
Number of groups
=
=
21264
2764
R-sq:
Obs per group: min =
avg =
max =
1
7.7
13
within = 0.0580
between = 0.1811
overall = 0.1323
corr(u_i, Xb)
F(19,18481)
Prob > F
= 0.1423
LIKERT
Coef.
partner
get_pnr
lose_pnr
female
ue_sick
age
age2
badhealth
W2
W3
W4
W5
W6
W7
W8
W9
W10
W11
W12
W13
W14
W15
_cons
.3193454
-.072553
2.648729
(dropped)
1.894834
.071427
-.0008821
1.282999
-.0140737
-.0554759
.1273198
-.0761569
.0865111
-.0104289
-.1120629
(dropped)
.2739767
.0881723
-.0358824
-.0671728
.0610156
(dropped)
6.873039
sigma_u
sigma_e
rho
3.7904487
4.0304244
.46934486
F test that all u_i=0:
Std. Err.
t
=
=
59.92
0.0000
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
.1431496
.2117186
.2372293
2.23
-0.34
11.17
0.026
0.732
0.000
.038759
-.487541
2.183737
.5999317
.3424349
3.11372
.1531005
.1200867
.0002464
.0460178
1.540443
1.422781
1.303812
1.185396
1.07344
.9562925
.8400402
12.38
0.59
-3.58
27.88
-0.01
-0.04
0.10
-0.06
0.08
-0.01
-0.13
0.000
0.552
0.000
0.000
0.993
0.969
0.922
0.949
0.936
0.991
0.894
1.594743
-.1639541
-.0013651
1.1928
-3.033485
-2.844257
-2.428272
-2.399643
-2.01753
-1.884851
-1.758619
2.194925
.3068081
-.0003991
1.373199
3.005338
2.733306
2.682911
2.247329
2.190553
1.863993
1.534493
.6086295
.4963143
.385874
.279283
.1898793
0.45
0.18
-0.09
-0.24
0.32
0.653
0.859
0.926
0.810
0.748
-.9189933
-.8846495
-.7922312
-.6145932
-.3111654
1.466947
1.060994
.7204663
.4802477
.4331966
6.064719
1.13
0.257
-5.01437
18.76045
(fraction of variance due to u_i)
F(2763, 18481) =
4.83
Prob > F = 0.0000
Extending panel data models to discrete dependent
variables
Panel data extensions to logit and probit models
Recap from Week 1:
These models cover discrete (categorical) outcomes, eg psychological
morbidity; whether one has a job;. Think of other examples.
Outcome variable is always 0 or 1. Estimate:
P r(Y 1) F ( X , )
P r(Y 0) 1 F ( X , )
OLS (linear probability model) would set F(X,β) = X’β + ε
Inappropriate because:
Heteroscedasticity: the outcome variable is always 0 or 1,
so ε only takes the value -x’β or 1-x’β
More seriously, one cannot constrain estimated probabilities
to lie between 0 and 1.
Extension of logit and probit to panel data:
We won’t do the maths!
But essentially, STATA maximises a likelihood function derived from the
panel data specification
Both random effects and fixed effects
First, generate the categorical variable indicating psychological
morbidity
.
gen byte PM = (hlghq2 > 2) if hlghq2 >= 0 & hlghq2 != .
Fixed effects estimates – xtlogit (clogit)
.
xtlogit PM partner get_pnr lose_pnr female ue_sick age age2 badh, fe
note: multiple positive outcomes within groups encountered.
note: 1221 groups (6462 obs) dropped because of all positive or
all negative outcomes.
note: female omitted because of no within-group variance.
Iteration
Iteration
Iteration
Iteration
0:
1:
2:
3:
log
log
log
log
likelihood
likelihood
likelihood
likelihood
=
=
=
=
-5844.5165
-5829.2179
-5829.2122
-5829.2122
Conditional fixed-effects logistic regression
Group variable: pid
Log likelihood
Coef.
partner
get_pnr
lose_pnr
ue_sick
age
age2
badhealth
.0960128
.0368568
1.231475
.7533968
-.03383
.0000894
.5386858
=
=
14802
1543
Obs per group: min =
avg =
max =
2
9.6
13
LR chi2(7)
Prob > chi2
= -5829.2122
PM
Number of obs
Number of groups
Std. Err.
.0917139
.13587
.1469964
.0970111
.0162808
.0001715
.0298361
z
1.05
0.27
8.38
7.77
-2.08
0.52
18.05
P>|z|
0.295
0.786
0.000
0.000
0.038
0.602
0.000
=
=
517.04
0.0000
[95% Conf. Interval]
-.0837432
-.2294436
.9433672
.5632586
-.0657398
-.0002468
.4802081
.2757688
.3031572
1.519583
.9435351
-.0019203
.0004256
.5971636
Is losing a partner
necessarily causing
the psychological
morbidity?
Losing a partner, being unemployed or sick, and being in bad health are
associated with psychological morbidity
Negative in age throughout the human life span
Adding some more variables:
We know that women sometimes suffer from post-natal depression. Try total
number of children, and children aged 0-2
Total number of children is insignificant, but children 0-2 is significant.
.
xtlogit PM partner get_pnr lose_pnr female ue_sick age age2 badh nch02, fe
note: multiple positive outcomes within groups encountered.
note: 1221 groups (6462 obs) dropped because of all positive or
all negative outcomes.
note: female omitted because of no within-group variance.
Iteration
Iteration
Iteration
Iteration
0:
1:
2:
3:
log
log
log
log
likelihood
likelihood
likelihood
likelihood
=
=
=
=
-5839.5118
-5824.2036
-5824.1975
-5824.1975
Conditional fixed-effects logistic regression
Group variable: pid
Log likelihood
Coef.
partner
get_pnr
lose_pnr
ue_sick
age
age2
badhealth
nch02
.0470255
.0679186
1.217756
.749727
-.0295734
.0000582
.537545
.249448
=
=
14802
1543
Obs per group: min =
avg =
max =
2
9.6
13
LR chi2(8)
Prob > chi2
= -5824.1975
PM
Number of obs
Number of groups
Std. Err.
.0931317
.1363361
.1472094
.0970536
.0163456
.0001719
.0298374
.0785737
z
0.50
0.50
8.27
7.72
-1.81
0.34
18.02
3.17
P>|z|
0.614
0.618
0.000
0.000
0.070
0.735
0.000
0.001
=
=
527.07
0.0000
[95% Conf. Interval]
-.1355092
-.1992952
.9292311
.5595054
-.0616102
-.0002787
.4790647
.0954464
.2295603
.3351324
1.506282
.9399487
.0024635
.0003951
.5960253
.4034497
Next step???
Yes, we should separate men and women
sort female
by female: xtlogit PM partner get_pnr lose_pnr female ue_sick age age2 badh nch02, fe
Men
PM
Coef.
partner
get_pnr
lose_pnr
ue_sick
age
age2
badhealth
nch02
-.0262595
.2042066
1.335693
.9009421
.0141781
-.0004864
.5628403
.0458965
Std. Err.
z
P>|z|
.151735
.2165868
.2314295
.1397474
.0265837
.0002804
.047939
.1268808
-0.17
0.94
5.77
6.45
0.53
-1.73
11.74
0.36
0.863
0.346
0.000
0.000
0.594
0.083
0.000
0.718
Std. Err.
z
P>|z|
[95% Conf. Interval]
-.3236547
-.2202957
.8820997
.6270421
-.037925
-.0010359
.4688817
-.2027854
.2711357
.6287089
1.789287
1.174842
.0662812
.0000632
.656799
.2945784
Women
PM
Coef.
partner
get_pnr
lose_pnr
ue_sick
age
age2
badhealth
nch02
.0930161
-.0122303
1.13012
.6032882
-.0570441
.0004039
.5222259
.3840788
.1181743
.1751243
.1901842
.1357316
.0208069
.0002185
.0382135
.1011092
0.79
-0.07
5.94
4.44
-2.74
1.85
13.67
3.80
0.431
0.944
0.000
0.000
0.006
0.065
0.000
0.000
[95% Conf. Interval]
-.1386013
-.3554676
.7573657
.3372591
-.0978248
-.0000245
.4473288
.1859084
.3246336
.3310069
1.502874
.8693174
-.0162633
.0008322
.597123
.5822493
Relationship between PM and young children is confined to women
Any other gender differences?
Back to random effects
Random-effects logistic regression
Group variable: pid
Number of obs
Number of groups
=
=
21264
2764
Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian
Obs per group: min =
avg =
max =
1
7.7
13
Log likelihood
Wald chi2(9)
Prob > chi2
= -10377.058
PM
Coef.
Std. Err.
partner
get_pnr
lose_pnr
female
ue_sick
age
age2
badhealth
nch02
_cons
.0565392
.032454
1.309734
.686486
.7131287
-.013065
.0000337
.6613526
.2653162
-2.871645
.0695474
.1320281
.1389371
.0712769
.0839162
.0094552
.0000961
.0261188
.0743185
.2033651
/lnsig2u
.6496376
sigma_u
rho
1.38378
.3679062
z
0.81
0.25
9.43
9.63
8.50
-1.38
0.35
25.32
3.57
-14.12
0.416
0.806
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.167
0.726
0.000
0.000
0.000
959.52
0.0000
[95% Conf. Interval]
-.0797712
-.2263163
1.037422
.5467859
.5486559
-.0315968
-.0001546
.6101607
.1196546
-3.270233
.1928496
.2912244
1.582046
.8261862
.8776015
.0054667
.0002221
.7125446
.4109779
-2.473057
.0571876
.537552
.7617232
.0395675
.013299
1.308362
.3422473
1.463545
.3943355
Likelihood-ratio test of rho=0: chibar2(01) =
P>|z|
=
=
2038.50 Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000
Estimates are VERY similar to FE
Testing between FE and RE
quietly xtlogit PM partner get_pnr lose_pnr female ue_sick age age2 badh nch02, fe
estimates store fixed
quietly xtlogit PM partner get_pnr lose_pnr female ue_sick age age2 badh nch02, re
hausman fixed .
Coefficients
(b)
(B)
fixed
.
partner
get_pnr
lose_pnr
ue_sick
age
age2
badhealth
nch02
.0470255
.0679186
1.217756
.749727
-.0295734
.0000582
.537545
.249448
.0565392
.032454
1.309734
.7131287
-.013065
.0000337
.6613526
.2653162
(b-B)
Difference
-.0095137
.0354646
-.0919776
.0365983
-.0165083
.0000245
-.1238076
-.0158682
sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B))
S.E.
.0619409
.0340015
.0486529
.0487594
.0133334
.0001425
.014425
.0255066
b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtlogit
B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtlogit
Test:
Ho:
difference in coefficients not systematic
chi2(8) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B)
=
149.76
Prob>chi2 =
0.0000
Random effects is rejected again.
Random effects probit
No fixed effects command available, as there does not exist a sufficient statistic
allowing the fixed effects to be conditioned out of the likelihood.
Random-effects probit regression
Group variable: pid
Number of obs
Number of groups
=
=
21264
2764
Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian
Obs per group: min =
avg =
max =
1
7.7
13
Log likelihood
Wald chi2(9)
Prob > chi2
= -10370.501
PM
Coef.
Std. Err.
partner
get_pnr
lose_pnr
female
ue_sick
age
age2
badhealth
nch02
_cons
.0334017
.0183513
.7646656
.3924276
.4189777
-.0077306
.0000201
.3825895
.1530239
-1.657895
.0399311
.0757428
.0800772
.0407552
.048681
.0054309
.0000552
.0149317
.0431233
.1165019
/lnsig2u
-.4475525
sigma_u
rho
.799494
.3899428
z
0.84
0.24
9.55
9.63
8.61
-1.42
0.36
25.62
3.55
-14.23
P>|z|
995.53
0.0000
[95% Conf. Interval]
-.0448618
-.1301019
.6077173
.3125488
.3235648
-.018375
-.000088
.3533239
.0685039
-1.886235
.1116651
.1668045
.921614
.4723063
.5143906
.0029138
.0001283
.4118551
.237544
-1.429556
.0552927
-.5559243
-.3391807
.0221031
.0131534
.7573255
.364491
.8440105
.4160085
Likelihood-ratio test of rho=0: chibar2(01) =
0.403
0.809
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.155
0.715
0.000
0.000
0.000
=
=
2056.20 Prob >= chibar2 = 0.000
Why aren’t the sets of coefficients more
similar?
Partner
Get partner
Lose partner
Female
UE/sick
Age
Age-squared
Bad health
Kids 0-2
Cons
Logit
0.057
0.032
1.310 ***
0.686 ***
0.713 ***
-0.013
0.000
0.661 ***
0.265 ***
-2.871 ***
Probit
0.033 ***
0.018 ***
0.765 ***
0.392 **
0.419 ***
-0.007
-0.000
0.383 **
0.153 ***
-1.658 ***
Remember the conversion scale from Week 1…