Transcript Slide 1

Population and the environment
– a causal link?
Simon Ross - Population Matters
Presentation to the
British Society for Population Studies
Annual Conference 2011
Population Matters 135-137 Station Road, London E4 6AG +44(0)20 8123 9116 www.populationmatters.org [email protected]
Patrons: Sir David Attenborough OM CH CVO CBE ● Professor Sir Partha Dasgupta ● Professor Paul Erhlich ● Dr Jane Goodall OBE ● Professor John Gullebaud ●
Susan Hampshire OBE ● Dr James Lovelock CBE ● Professor Audrey Manning OBE ● Professor Norman Myers CMG ● Chris Packham ● Sara Parkin OBE ●
Jonathan Pomitt CBE ● Lionel Shriver ● Sir Crispin Tickell GCMG KCVO
Population Matters is the working name of the Optimum Population Trust. Regd. charity no. 1114109. Regd. company no. 3019081. Regd. office as above.
Summary
• Population size is an environmental factor
• We can do something about it
• It is complementary to other strategies
1804:1bn 1927:2bn 1960:3bn 1974:4bn 1987:5bn 1999:6bn 2011:7bn
Slide 2
Definition of sustainability
“Sustainability is the capacity to endure. In
ecology, the word describes how biological
systems remain diverse and productive over time.
Long-lived and healthy wetlands and forests are
examples of sustainable biological systems. For
humans, sustainability is the potential for long-term
maintenance of well being, which has
environmental, economic, and social dimensions,
and encompasses the concept of stewardship, the
responsible planning and management of
resources.” - Wikipedia
Slide 3
Sustainability means for ever
Pakistan’s population growth
Million
300
274.9
A seven fold increase surely has consequences
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50 37.5
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Pakistan’s woodland decline
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When Pakistan gained its independence, the nation was about 33 percent covered in forests. The
government's own figures show that tree cover is now just 4 percent of Pakistan's land surface.
The country has lost a quarter of its natural forest cover over the past two decades and is
currently experiencing a deforestation rate of 2 percent a year.
“The depletion of forests in Pakistan is quite alarming. If the situation does not change soon they
will disappear in 20 to 25 years."
The principal cause is the consumption of fuel wood and timber. This consumption is expected
to increase in line with the growth of population projected at about 3 per cent a year.
Between 1945 and 1986, the number of cattle almost doubled, while the number of buffaloes,
sheep and goats more than tripled. The overall livestock numbers continue to increase at a rate
of two per cent per year.
The loss of forest habitat has had a severe impact on Pakistan's biodiversity and has serious
implications for the nation's other natural and agro-ecosystems.
Deforestation made destruction caused by this summer's massive floods measurably worse.
Reservoirs in the country have suffered capacity losses of 23 percent on average, all from
siltation. Barrages [dams] have significantly lost their design capacity due to deposition of silt
loads. The loss of dense woodland made stream and river banks much more prone to erosion.
Riverside forests that could have stemmed the force of raging floodwater were gone.
Officials failed to prevent populations from sprouting up in the areas designated as flood control
zones.
Slide 5
Impact of low income populations
• It is a mistake to think that low income
populations have no environmental impact
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Fishing, and hunting for bush meat
Killing wildlife to protect crops
Deforestation for fuel and timber
Overexploitation of soil
Atmospheric soot from cooking fires
Slide 6
Today’s global concerns
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“The unprecedented drive for wealth and well-being of the past 40 years is putting
unsustainable pressures on our planet …Humanity's Ecological Footprint exceeds
the Earth's biocapacity - the area actually available to produce renewable resources
and absorb CO2 - by 50 percent” WWF
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Biodiversity – ” … the current species extinction rate is between 1,000 and 10,000
times higher than it would naturally be. The main drivers…are converting natural
areas to farming and urban development, introducing invasive alien species, polluting
or over-exploiting resources…and harvesting wild plants and animals at
unsustainable levels.” IUCN
Climate change – “The Earth’s surface has warmed by more than 0.75°C since
around 1900, with much of this warming occurring in the past 50 years. The IPCC
concluded it is very likely (more than 90% probability) that most of the observed
global warming since the mid-20th century is due to the observed increase in humancaused greenhouse gas (GHG).” DECC
Emissions at record level. IEA
Food – “925m are undernourished in 2010” FAO; Productivity declining UNEP
Housing – A billion people live in slums UN
Water – 1.6bn live in areas of physical water scarcity – In many high-intensity foodproducing regions, water limits are already being “reached or breached.” They include
the plains of northern China, India’s Punjab and the western United States. UNEP
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Slide 7
Future prospects
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Population – 2011-85: 7-10bn; 43% increase UN
Consumption – “By 2025, six major emerging economies—Brazil, China, India,
Indonesia, South Korea, and Russia—will account for more than half of all global
growth” World Bank
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Biodiversity - “…by 2050, a considerable number of species extinctions will have
taken place. Existing large blocks of tropical forest will be much reduced and
fragmented… Marine ecosystems will be very different from today's, with few large
marine predators, and freshwater biodiversity will be severely reduced almost
everywhere.” UNEP website “Annual cost of biodiversity loss by 2050 14 trillion
Euros.” EU
Climate change - “…there is a high risk of global warming well beyond a 2°C
increase since pre-industrial times. This …could lead to severe, and possibly
irreversible, damage to ecosystems and natural processes.” DECC
Water reserves are being significantly depleted while demand is expected to rise by
30% by 2030.
Fossil fuel reserves are declining rapidly while effective alternatives are limited.
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Food demand will rise by 70% by 2050 FAO; supply is threatened by above factors
and by development, overexploitation and pollution.
Slide 8
Technological solutions
• Biodiversity – alternative materials; reservations
• Climate change – renewables; (nuclear); smart meters;
insulation
• Food – reduce waste; less meat; (intensification); (GM
foods); (virgin lands) “availability of good agricultural land
is limited” FoE
• Water – reduce waste; improve storage and aquifer use;
desalination
• Fossil fuels – (biofuels), (shale/ fracking) etc.
• Conclusion: Solutions often face obstacles or cause
other problems
• Technological spread/ advances unlikely to be sufficient,
though we should welcome them
Slide 9
Behavioural solutions
• Per capita emissions vary widely - US 18mtc; UK 9mtc; much of
Africa negligible CDIAC; Proposition of reducing individual
consumption in developed countries – eat less, travel less, buy less
• Achievable?
1. “The second scenario…would mean a
substantial cut in food consumption in some countries and a big
increase in others.” Agrimonde; 2. “Clearly we need to reduce
resource consumption…by a factor of 10 if we are to live within
environmental limits and share resources fairly between the World’s
growing populations.” Friends of the Earth
• Impact? – Even if this reduction happens, increasing per capita
consumption is happening at pace in developing world e.g. BRIC
countries, including move to much less efficient meat based diet
• Conclusion: Average per capita consumption will probably rise
• Behavioural change may not happen and is unlikely to be sufficient,
though we should welcome it
Slide 10
Population solutions
• Agreed - UN Millennium Development Goal 5b Universal access to reproductive health
• Acceptable - Users typically want contraception
• Available - Proven and safe technology
• Affordable - Providing FP access for over 200m
women costs £3.6bn pa; equivalent to an
intergovernmental loan. Less than the savings
achievable through lowering population growth
• Urgent - Need to supply record youth numbers
Slide 11
Not just about family planning
• Other strategies reduce birth rates and
should be encouraged:
– Maternal and newborn health
– Gender empowerment
– Social development
– Urbanisation
– Education
• However, this does not mean we do not
also need family planning services
Slide 12
Family planning has side-benefits
• Gender equality – enabling women to manage
their own fertility empowers them
• Maternal and child health – later, less frequent
pregnancy aids health generally
• Social justice – Fewer children frees up
resources for investment in development
• Technological advance – Fewer children
encourages the adoption of new technologies
• Behavioural change – A smaller family is the
best environmental behavioural change
Slide 13
Family planning makes everything easier
Success stories (Total fertility rate)
1980-85
2005-10
Algeria
6.5
2.4
Brazil
3.8
1.9
Iran
6.5
1.8
Thailand
3.0
1.6
Slide 14
Fertility reduction is widespread
World population allocated according to their country’s average fertility
Over 3 kids
18%
Under 2 kids
42%
2 to 3 kids
40%
Slide 15
UN
Lagging states (Total fertility rate)
1980-85
2005-10
Nigeria
6.8
5.6
Yemen
9.2
5.5
Pakistan
6.4
3.7
Philippines
4.9
3.3
Slide 16
Small differences have a large impact
Billion
World population projections
15.8
14
+1/2 child
Medium
10.1 -1/2 child
10
6.9
6.2
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UN
Is sustainability a global or local issue?
• Problems are global; we cannot simply be
concerned with the UK.
• Responsibility is local; we have to put our own
house in order if we are to speak on the issue
• Consumption by the UK is almost three times
higher than our sustainable production. We
achieve this through imports and by depleting
non-renewable resources. GFN
• Population density in England is higher than
for any other major European country UN
• See conference poster for public attitude to this
Slide 18
UK – Births exceed deaths; immigration
exceeds emigration
(000)
UK population growth is at a fifty year high
The UK TFR of
2.0 is at a near
forty year high
900
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Natural
differential
Births
Deaths
Immigration
Emigration
Migration
differential
1 in 4 births in
E & W is to a
woman born
abroad - 2010
(London 1 in 2)
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Slide 19
ONS
The UK accounts for one third of EU population growth
Housing - supply or demand?
• “The (National Housing) Federation warned the housing
market will be plunged into an unprecedented crisis as it
forecast steep rises in the private rental sector, huge
social housing waiting lists, and a house price boom – all
fuelled by a chronic under-supply of homes.” “There is
a simple and straightforward answer: build more homes.”
• Single person households are certainly part of the cause,
but aren’t open to an obvious solution
• Might it just be that there is a chronic over-supply of
people? That the simple and straightforward answer is
to reduce the birth rate and immigration?
Slide 20
More issues for the UK
• Amenities - England’s Areas of Outstanding Natural
Beauty under siege from damaging developments
• Biodiversity - The number of endangered animals in the
UK has doubled over the past 10 years
• Congestion – Already costs economy £20bn pa
• Planning – Choosing population or enviroment
• Resources – Rising demand for water, energy and food
is increasingly posing supply challenges
• Population – projected to grow by a further 10m in the
15 years between 2008 and 2033. ONS
Slide 21
Population growth doesn’t make Britain a better place
Encourage smaller families
• Better sexual education and health – one in
five UK pregnancies are terminated; highest
teenage pregnancy rate in Europe
• Improved childhood/ life chances – British
children least happy in 21 nation study UNICEF/
one million NEETs DfE
• Appropriate fiscal policies – use tax/ benefits
to support the “two or fewer” message
• Social marketing – the UK has one of the
highest fertility rates in Europe and it is rising:
make the environmental case for “two or fewer”
Slide 22
The UK government has never said “Fewer is better”
Balance (i.e. zero net) migration
• International agreements should be observed:
– Right to asylum; EU freedom of movement
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Migration is global issue - up 40% in 10 yrs IOM
Illegal settlement must be tackled
Fraud reduced in asylum, marriage, students
Ross border arranged marriages unjustified
Unjustified employment should be reduced
– We should train our 2.5m unemployed, not exploit the
training of other countries and denude them of skills
– If we import workers, just issue short-term visas
Slide 23
Objections – Diversion and conflict
• “…diverting resources from more
effective policies…” – In fact, population
concern strategies are low cost,
demonstrably effective and complement
other policies
• “…encouraging racism and conflict…”
– In fact, population concern strategies
reduce racism and conflict by reducing
competition for limited resources
Slide 24
Objections - Ageing
• Populations are ageing, as we live longer
and as the fertility rate falls
• We have to make a temporary adjustment
to greater longevity and lower fertility
• A high birth or immigration rate makes us
less sustainable in the long run
• We should respond by working longer
and welcoming lower childcare costs
Slide 25
Objections – Too slow
• Birth rates can change, as is evident; migration rates
can change more quickly
• Resulting population numbers are slower to change:
but that is a good reason to start now
• Other environmental responses are not necessarily
faster: “The long timescales involved in many of the
engineering-based projects required to meet these
challenges…mean that if action is not taken before a
crisis point is reached there will be significant human
hardship.” Institute of Mechanical Engineers
• Urgency doesn’t mean issues are soluble in short term
• Scale of the challenge means all positive contributions
to reducing our impact should be pursued
Slide 26
Conclusion
Sustainability means both reducing
the populations of developed
countries and reducing the growth in
populations of developing countries,
before they develop
2011:7bn
Slide 27
2025:8bn
2045:9bn
[email protected]
2085:10bn