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Timeline of Iranian Politics • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 1941: Accession of Mohammed Reza Pahlavi 1950: Mohammed Mossadiq becomes Prime Minister 1953: Shah overthrows Mossadiq in a coup d’etat 1963: Beginning of the White Revolution 1979: Iranian Revolution led by liberal nationalists and alienated clerics; US hostage crisis begins 1980-1988: Iran-Iraq war 1989: Ayatollah Khomeini dies/President Khamenei becomes Supreme Leader 1989: Ali Rafsanjani becomes President 1997: Mohammed Khatami becomes President in a surprise upset (70% of vote) 1999: Large-scale pro-democracy protests 2000: Liberals win the majority of seats in the majlis elections; hardliners crack down on the media and civil society 2001: Khatami wins a 2nd term by a landslide 2004: Conservatives win control of parliament after most liberal candidates are rejected by the Council of Guardians 2005: Ahmadinejad wins presidency, beating centrist Rafsanjani 2009: Ahmadinejad wins presidency in a contested election, beating independent reformist candidate Mousavi 2009-2010: Widespread protests at perceived electoral corruption: Green revolution begins 0 Revolution in Iran • Revolutionary forces in Iran – Protests were led by the ulema in 1963 under Khomeini and urban terrorist groups emerged – Shah became totally repressive after 1975; taking away autonomy of clerics and the bazaari merchants – Economy was in turmoil with rampant inflation from excessive oil spending – Opposition spoke out and was led by the Freedom movement in Iran (liberal) and militant ulema (conservative-revolutionary) – Militant ulema led by Ayatollah Khomeini pressed for rule by Islamic clerics – A cycle of religious protests, police violence, mourning protests, police violence, became more and more pronounced in 1978 – The shah left for Egypt in exile in 1979, and the Freedom Movement and Khomeini were left to fight it out; Khomeini eventually won 1 Anti-Americanism in Iran • Support for the shah – The CIA coup; support for the Shah’s repression • The hostage crisis – From 1979 to 1981; Iranians held US diplomats after taking over the embassy – Carter lost the election to Reagan; the hostages were released as a show of good will toward Reagan • The Iran-Contra scandal – US sold arms to its enemy Iran in the mid-1980s, to get help freeing American hostages held by the Lebanese Hizbullah – The earnings were illegally diverted to a rebel movement in Nicaragua, the Contras • The process of demonization – Anti-US rallies; US as the devil: “Death to America” becomes a popular slogan – America frames Iran as the center of the axis of evil 2 Key characters in Iranian politics Former President Rafsanjani Supreme Leader Ali Khameini Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini Former President Khatami Presidential Candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi Current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 3 Iranian political institutions • Dual nature of institutions: Secular and Religious parallels – Result of intense debates during the revolution about the constitution • Supreme leader (Faqih) – Ultimate veto power over most everything; vacillates between using it and not – Has strong appointment powers over the judiciary and the military – Like Plato’s philosopher-king; life term; elected by the Assembly of Experts • President – Strongest executive except for the faqih – Independently elected • Majlis – Contested and reasonably powerful legislative body • Council of Guardians – Designed to keep any legislation from violating the shari’a – Also vets political candidates; appointed directly or indirectly by the supreme leader – Has vetoed every single reform law passed by the majlis in recent years • Expediency Council – Designed to resolve conflicts between the Majlis and the Council of Guardians – In 2000, it allowed some Majlis legislation to pass over the Council, but is now very conservative 4 Elected and unelected institutions in Iran The process of vetting who can run for election is key to understanding how these institutions interact 5 Liberalism vs. clericalism in Iran • Political divisions – Political parties were illegal for a long time; still act as informal blocs – Groups of independent candidates (most of whom are clerics), who tend to ally with each other • Combatant clerics – Care deeply about maintaining political power; actively defend the Supreme Leader – Are conservative on key social and religious issues • Militant clerics – “Leftist” splinter from the combatant clerics; held considerable power in the government in the late 1980s – Have argued for more power to the majlis – Were shut out of government in the early 1990s, but did well in the 1997 elections supporting Khatami • Servants of Construction – Non-clerical group of technocrats formed in the mid-1990s – Fit somewhere between the two groups; supporters of the former President Rafsanjani – Supported Khatami in the 1997 elections 6 2008 Iranian legislative election results Conservatives 67% Reformists 18% Independents 13% Religious Minorities 2% Since Khatami, the majlis has seen a big shift towards the conservatives, in large part due to active vetting 7 The potential for political reform in Iran • Iran’s underlying liberal culture – Many Iranians resent strict control of the public sphere – Official ideology vs. public preferences • Challenges to the Iranian regime – – – – – Disillusionment of reformers after Khatami’s presidency Reasons for Ahmadinejad’s political success: populism, economic redistribution Centralization of power in the Council of Guardians and Revolutionary Guard Most Iranians no longer remember the Shah Fragmentation of elites over the direction of the revolution • The 2009 elections – Ahmadinejad faced a credible challenge in a new revolutionary reformer: Mousavi – Ahmadinejad officially won the election by 2/3 of the vote, but there was some fraud • Mobilization as part of the “Green Revolution” – – – – Mousavi leads supporters in a campaign of popular protest: “where is my vote?” Hundreds of thousands join in peaceful protests across Iran Repression triggers further protests Costs of mobilization become too high and the protests slow down 8 Images from the Green Revolution 9