Transcript No Slide Title

Measuring eBusiness:
Definitions, Indicators & Surveys
Andrew Wyckoff
OECD
UNCTAD Expert Meeting
Measuring Electronic Commerce
8-10 September 2003
1
Overview
•
•
•
•
Definitions
Model Surveys
Current / Future work
“Lessons Learned”
2
Growth in Internet host computers and major
e-commerce developments
1 9 9 4: N e ts c a p e
r e le a s e s N a v ig a to r
b ro w ser
N u m b e r o f h o s ts
(lo g s c a le )
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1000000
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1 9 8 9: W W W H T M L
la n g u a g e in v e n te d a t
CERN
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1 9 9 3: M o s a ic b ro w s e r
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1 9 9 5: D e ll, C is c o a n d
A m a z o n b e g in to
a g g r e s s iv e ly u s e I n te rn e t
f o r c o m m e r c ia l
tr a n s a c tio n s
1000
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3
Jan
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*
Mainframe and PC price indices
600
PCs
500
400
300
Mainframes
200
100
0
1982
4
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
1994
OECD IS Ministerial Milestones
• GII / GIS:
“Information Highway”
1996
5
OECD IS Ministerial Milestones
• WPIIS
• GII / GIS
“Information Highway”
1996
6
GII / GIS
• Definitions
7
• ICT sector
8
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Share of ICT value added in
business sector value added, 1999
%
14
ICT services
10
ICT manufacturing
8
6
4
2
0
Source: OECD, STI Scoreboard, 2001
OECD IS Ministerial Milestones
• GII / GIS
1996
• E-commerce
1998
9
• Identify, assess and
monitor GIS
• WPIIS
OECD IS Ministerial Milestones
• GII / GIS
1996
• E-commerce
1998
10
• Identify, assess and
monitor GIS
• WPIIS
• methodology and
apparatus for
measuring
E-Commerce
• Definition
11
E-Commerce
• Definition
• Broad & narrow,
nested definition
Narrow = orders over the Internet (payment and delivery can be
off line) (including EDI / XML over the Internet)
Broad = orders over “computer mediated networks” (payment
and delivery can be off line) (EDI, Minitel, EDIFACT)
12
E-commerce Definition
• The Debate in 1999 / 2000
• Issues today
13
Level of
electronic
commerce
activity
Impact
efficiency gains
employment, skill composition,
work organisation
new products, services,
Readiness
transaction/business
business models
contribution to wealth creation
size
"potential" usage nature of
changes in product/
sectoral value chains
access
transaction/business
technology infrastructure
socio-economic
infrastructure
Intensity
Time
14
Official estimates of Web, Internet and
electronic commerce transactions.
Percentage of total sales or revenues.
BROADER
2.00% (Sweden)
Business sector
1.8% (UK)
0.40%(Canada)
5.20%(UK)
13.30% (Sweden)
0.40%(Australia, 1999-2000)
Business sector
(excluding
financial sector)
0.90%(Denmark)
0.94%(UK)
5.95%(UK)
0.40% (Italy)
0.70%(Finland)
Retail sector
0.10%(France, 1999)
Web
commerce
1.04%(UK)
1.2% (USA, 4rd Q 2001)
0.40% (Canada)
1.1% (USA, 4th Q 2000)
0.20% (Austria)
1.4% (UK)
Internet
commerce
Electronic
commerce
BROADER
Private v. Public data
%
Official data
8
7
Private source in December 1999
2003
2003
6
2003
5
2002
4
2002
3
2
2001
2000
2001
2000
1
2001
2002
2000
0
Denmark
16
Finland
United Kingdom
E-Commerce
• Definitions
• Methodologies
17
• ICT sector
• Business Use
OECD Model Survey of ICT Usage
in the Business Sector
• General Information about ICT systems
– Devices, networks and use
• Use of the Internet
– Type of connection & speed, type of use
• E-commerce
– Internet sales & purchases
– Other computer mediated networks
• Barriers
– Skills, cost, security,
18
Business Access and Use of the Internet
Businesses using the Internet
%
Businesses receiving orders over the Internet
100
Businesses ordering over the Internet
80
60
40
20
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Internet penetration by size class.
Percentage of businesses using the Internet
5-9 employees
10-19 employees
250-999 employees
50-249 employees
%
100
90
80
70
2001
60
2000
50
1999
40
30
20
10
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Source: OECD, STI Scoreboard, 2001
20
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Internet penetration by industry
Percentage of businesses using the Internet, 2000
%
100
United Kingdom
21
Denmark
Canada
Australia
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Source: OECD, STI Scoreboard, 2001
OECD IS Ministerial Milestones
• GII / GIS
1996
• E-commerce
1998
• New Economy
1999
22
• Identify, assess and
monitor GIS
• WPIIS
• methodology and
apparatus for
measuring
23
24
en
ed
St
at
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ng
do
m
Ki
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ly
25
Sp
ai
n
Ire
la
nd
an
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Fr
% of non-res GFCF
30
ICT investment as a Share of GFCF
1980
1990
2001*
20
15
10
5
0
U
25
ar
k
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la
n
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et
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m
an
0.7%
D
G
0.8%
Fi
nl
an
d
l
Fr
an
ce
Po
rtu
ga
Contribution of ICT investment to
GDP (growth accounting)
0.9%
90-95
95-2001*
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
OECD IS Ministerial Milestones
• GII / GIS
• E-commerce
1996
1998
• New Economy 1999
• Identify, assess and
monitor GIS
• WPIIS
• methodology and
apparatus for
measuring
• Seizing the Benefits • Identifies role of
skills, org. change
of ICT 2003
26
High-skilled workers and ICT
6
Correlation = 0.68
T-statistic = 3.04
ICT investment (%GDP)
5
United States
Sweden
Netherlands
4
Italy
3
Spain
Greece
2
United Kingdom
Finland
Belgium
Denmark
Germany
Luxembourg*
Austria France
1
0
0
1
27
2
3
Share of high-skilled ICT workers in total occupations
4
The sophistication of e-activity increases
with experience in ICT use: UK
40
Buy using E-commerce
Sell using E-commerce
Buy & sell using E-commerce
Current level of E-activity
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
pre 1995
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Year that company first started using ICT
Source: Clayton
& Waldron, 2002
28
2000
Policy implications
The business environment matters…
…in particular, the level and nature of competition.
•
•
Investing in ICT is much more than hardware. It
involves a constellation of complimentary
investments.
•
ICT is both a source and a tool for more
innovation.
29
Current / Future Work on eBusiness
• Addition of an eBusiness module to the
model survey on Business Use of ICT
• Improved measurement of ICT investment
by businesses (esp. software)
• Non-technical innovation (Organisational
Change)
30
Business ICT Access
Business ICT Use
eBusiness Processes
Broad e-comm
Narrow e-comm
31
eBusiness processes identified as of
common interest.
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Customer acquisition & retention
E-commerce
Finance, budget and account management
Human resource management
Product design & development
Order fulfilment and order tracking
Logistics (inbound & outbound) and inventory
control
• Product service and support
• Knowledge management
32
Lessons
• be aware of the technology
• Stay close to the policy issues
• Be pragmatic (creatively use existing data
resources and do easy things first)
• Proceed in a flexible (modular) way
• Feedback: stay open to revisions, breaks in
series.
33
Leverage scarce resources by partnering…
34
A few ideas for applying the OECD
model to non-OECD countries…
• Use available data sources
• Add a few “core”
questions to existing
business surveys
• Undertake a small survey
of known performers
• Combine with other work
(BR, LFS)
35