IPTS seminar Prague 18-19 2001

Transcript IPTS seminar Prague 18-19 2001

Czech National Foresight 2006-2007

Karel Klusacek Technology Centre AS CR, Prague National Foresight Programme „Poland 2020“ Seminar Warsaw 21-22 January 2020

Introductory remarks

• • •

Foresight is not, in particular, strictly defined as of its methodology, objectives, timing, budget, ...

Example given in this presentation corresponds to the situation in the Czech Republic and to the needs of main „client“ of the exercise - Czech Government Therefore – the ambition of my presentation is to give an overview of our experience as an example in which you can hopefully find some inspiration and also mistakes you may better to avoid

Background information

• • • • • •

Project initiated by the Czech Government through Ministry of Education (responsible for R&D policy) Coordinated by the Technology Centre AS CR Project duration: June 2006 - June 2007 Main objective: formulation of national thematic research priorities Exploitation of results: 1.

Guidelines for investments into R&D from EU Structural Funds (thematic orientation of large projects) Setting of priorities for National Research Program III A problem-oriented multidisciplinary approach

Two basic questions

• What are the key opportunities and

challenges for the Czech Republic in the time horizon 2015-2020, to the solution of which research may contribute?

• What are the related key thematic

research directions?

Methodology

A problem-oriented multidisciplinary approach consisting of several methodical components:

• analytical desk research • multidisciplinary panel of experts (~ 70 experts, a

wide range of scientific disciplines represented – from socio-economic fields to technical areas)

• exploratory and normative scenario building • combination of a back-cast look (analyses) and

forward looking scenarios generated by experts)

• final proposal of research priorities in cooperation

with state administration (across several relevant ministries)

Analytical desk research

• R&D Analysis:

• R&D output – scientific publications, patents • Allocation of R&D funds • Innovation potential of Czech regions • Projects of R&D infrastructure considered for

drawing financing from the EU Structural Funds through the Operational Programme R&D for Innovation (2008-2013)

• International cooperation of the Czech Republic in

R&D especially in the EU Framework Programmes

• Structural Analysis of Czech Economy • Analysis of Human Resources for R&D • Review of Strategic R&D Documents

Panel of experts

• One multidisciplinary panel ~ about 70 experts

invited – a wide range of thematic specialization (socio-economic-life-ICT-health-engineering-....., academia, business)

• Four months of common work • Three plenary sessions + small workshops • A project-dedicated website to support

communication

• Main objective: identifying key opportunities and

challenges for the Czech Republic in the time horizon 2015-2020

• Spontaneous cross-disciplinary cooperation of

experts – challenges of future are not „simple“

Panel of experts „two-scenarios“ method (1)

• experts asked to suggest key themes from their

professional fields

• intensive discussion between experts 

two plenary sessions combined with ad hoc small working groups – multidisciplinary approach



project-dedicated website with discussion section

• individual themes accessible for the whole

panel – remarks, recommendations

• collected input edited by coordinating team + main

author(s) of themes result: consolidated themes

Panel of experts „two-scenarios“ method (2)

•

exploratory scenario (considering several „possible futures“) formulated for each theme by author(s)



estimation of probable situation in the Czech Republic in 2015-2020 regarding individual themes probable future state indicated opportunities and problems (threats) result: identified opportunities / problems

Panel of experts „two-scenarios“ method (3)

• themes sorted/discarded/grouped into thematic

areas – intensive discussion with experts and state administration - different ministries („policy mix“) and R&D Council

•

normative scenario outlined for each thematic area „what to do and when“ for exploitation of future opportunities and minimisation (avoiding) of problems

• scenarios included suggestions what research fields

should be supported to meet the objectives result: identified research priorities and accompanying measures

Multidisciplinary Panel „two-scenarios“ method 1 2 THEME Current situation in the Czech Republic in international context Complex exploratory scenario (business as usual, disruptive changes,…)



1 scenario results

Combination of possible futures

2007 2015 2020 Exploitation of opportunities / solution (suppression) of problems 5 Estimation of possible situation in CR in 2015-2020 A consequence: 3 4 opportunities/ problems Progressive normative scenario

„what to do and when“ for exploitation of grouped of problems) 11

Normative scenarios Template

• Situation in the Czech Republic and abroad • Description of the desired state in 2015-2020 • Objectives to be achieved, and their justification • Expected benefits • Research to be supported so that the objectives are

met

• Measures needed so that the objectives and the

desired state in the future are achieved (exploitation of opportunities – suppression of threats)

Hierarchy of the National Research Programme

NRP T TA TA TP TP TP TA Energy Mechanical engineering Materials Molecular biology Medicine Information technology Sustainable development Security Socio-Economy Themes (T) are grouped in Thematic Areas (TA), which are further grouped in Thematic Priorities (TP)

Using of results

1. Thematic priorities for National Research Programme

•

36 Thematic Areas were defined and grouped into four Thematic Priorities 2. A guide for investments into R&D infrastructure

•

A guide for thematic orientation of new research capacities developed by using the EU Structural Funds (> € 5 billion in 2008 - 2013) 3. Formulation of accompanying (system) measures

•

Supporting Measures (policy, legislation, national R&D system, human resources) specified Results still have to be refined and processed by policy making bodies (state administration) in the first half of 2008

Expected thematic distribution of investments into research infrastructure using Structural Funds in the Czech Republic in 2007-2013

1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Sustainable Development Molecular Biology Power Sources Material Research Competitive Mechanical Engineering Information Society Security Research Other including Social Science Research 15

Expected geographical distribution of investments into research infrastructure using Structural Funds in the Czech Republic in 2007-2013

Links between financial instruments NRP ~ SF (1)

Thematic distribution of key priorities National Research Programme Investments into R&D from EU structural funds Energy, mechanical engineering, Materials Molecular biology Power sources, materials, mechanical engineering Molecular biology, medicine Information technology Sustainable development, security, socio-economic issues Information technology Sustainable development, security

Links between financial instruments NRP ~ SF (2)

• Comparison of thematic distribution of SF

investments into R&D in the Czech Republic with thematic orientation of the NRP shows thematic links between both financial instruments

• Investment into research infrastructure from

Structural Funds become operational in the next 3 5 years which is matching the assumed launching of the NRP in 2009

• National Research Programme is thus potentially

capable to contribute in a coordinated manner jointly with Structural Funds to growth and employment in general and to boost R&D to achieve research excellence in particular thematic area

Concluding remarks (1)

• Foresight • is one of tools for strategic decisions • is a structured future oriented thinking • is not a magic method to fix everything • is not a rigid method but flexible mix of tools

selected for a particular task (priority setting, policy formulation, ... )

• Original objectives defined before the exercise

after the exercise

plus

newly generated opportunities to use results as a basic input for further strategic issues and needs generated

Concluding remarks (2)

• What is the most important precondition for

successful foresight exercise?

Existence of an user of results with a behavior of results’ owner

• User (e.g. government) of results: • understanding how foresight can contribute to

strategic objectives

• clear formulation of needs • realistic expectations • clear commitment • stability to survive for the whole exercise and a

substantial part of implementation

• A strategic partnership between “foresighters” and

user is the best option