Transcript Overview slides 17-33 - Global Carbon Project

GCP Implementation Plan
1. Patterns and Variability
2. Mechanisms & Feedbacks
1.1. Enhancing Observations
2.1. Integrated C Sink Mechanisms
• Coordination & Standardization
• Multiple mechanisms and interactions
2.2. Emergent Properties C-Climate
1.2. Model-Data Fusion
• Paleo and Forward
• Model-data fusion techniques
2.3. Emergent Properties C-C-Hum.
1.3 Carbon Budgets
• Methodologies, Sector Analyses
• New modeling approaches
3. Future & C Management
3.1. Mitigation Options
• Control points land, ocean, FF
3.2. C Management & Sustainabil.
• Portfolios and sustainable develop.
3.3. Regional/Urban Development
• C consequences and Management
Unperturbed C Cycle
Perturbed C Cycle
Human Response
The Conceptual Framework
Perceptions
of human
welfare
Changes in
institutions
& technol.
Atmospheric
Carbon
Fossil
Carbon
Industry
Transport
Systems
Solubility
Pump
Land Use
Ecosystem
Disturbances
Systems
Physiology
Biological
Pump
Ocean-use
Systems
Terrestrial
Carbon
Ocean/Coastal
Carbon
Climate
Change
and
Variabil.
International Project and Affiliate Offices
IOC/SCOR-CO2 Panel
Paris, France
CarboEurope, Germany
GHG CA, Italy
NIES,Tsukuba
Japan (April 2004)
Beijing, China
USA
Inter.Proj.Off.
Affiliate Off.
Affiliate Off.
Proposed only
CSIRO,Canberra
Australia
Scientific Steering Committee
Co-Chairs:
Michael Raupach, Australia
Robert Dickinson, USA
Oran Young, USA
Executive Directors:
Pep Canadell, Australia
Penelope Canan, Japan (starting
April 2004)
Affiliated Offices:
EU-CarboEurope:
Annette Freibauer, Germany
SCOR-IOC Panel on Ocean CO2:
Maria Hood, France
Michael Apps, Canada
Alain Chedin, France
Cheng-Tung Arthur Chen, China, Taipei
Peter Cox, UK
Ellen Druffel, USA
Christopher Field, USA
Patricia Romero Lankao, Mexico
Louis Philipe Lebel, Thailand
Annan Partwardhan, India
Monika Rhein, Germany
Christopher Sabine, USA
Riccardo Valentini, Italy
Yoshiki Yamagata, Japan
Portfolio of Activities
A few examples
Portfolio of Activities: Overview
Coupling Humans-Biogeochem.
CoP9-Synthesis Book
Urban Dev.-Carbon Institute
Data Assimilation: Data Wk
Publication Science Framework
Regional T. C Budgets Confer.
State-of-the-Art Synthesis Wk
Ocean Coordination Wk
Annual SSC Meeting
Terrestrial Sinks Wk
Research Institute Data Assimilation
Land Use-Carbon SI
2002
2003
2004
International Ocean Carbon Coordination Project
IOCCP - http://ioc.unesco.org/ioccp/index.htm [with the IOC-SCOR CO2 Panel]
• Synthesize large-scale ocean carbon observation activities and plans.
• Integration of large-scale carbon studies into international research programs
Volunteer Observing Ships
• Promote acceptance of standardized measurement techniques
• Improved accessibility to international carbon data sets
Repeated Sections
• 13-15 January 2003, Paris, France
International Workshop on Ocean Carbon Research and Observation Activities. Contact: Maria Hood, Chris Sabine
• 10-14 March 2003, Hazaki Town,Ibaraki, Japan
International pCO2 sensor intercomparison experiment. Contact: Y.Nojiri
• 14-17 January 2004, Tsukuba, Japan
Workshop on Ocean Surface pCO2, Data Integration and Database Development. Contact:Y.Nojiri
Model-Data Fusion
Research Institutes (2 weeks long)
and focused workshops
Research, Tool development,
Capacity Building
http://dataportal.ucar.edu/CDAS/
http://www.fao.org/gtos/meetSHE.html
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Atmospheric Data-Model Assimilation [Colorado2002]
Terrestrial Model-Data Fusion [Sheffield 2003] w/GTOS
Synthesis processes intercomparsion [Australia 2004]
Ocean Data-Model Assimilation [2005]
Earth System Data-Model Assimilation [2006]
Integrated Terrestrial C Sink Mechanisms
Cold
ecosystems
Forest
conversion
CO2 fertilization
Plant growth
x
With IPCC
x
Warm
ecosystems
Temperature
aCO2 concentration
Soil
respiration
N fertilization
x
Temperature
Land use
Fire
x
Nitrogen deposition
Fire Suppression
GCP 2003
Integrated Synthesis
Toward CO2 Stabilization:
Issues, Strategies, and Consequences
SCOPE-GCP Synthesis Activity
Book Presentation: COP9-Milan, Dec03
Publication: February 2004
Topics: 1. current status and past trends of the carbon cycle;
2. vulnerabilities in the carbon cycle in the 21st Century;
3. scenarios, targets, gaps and costs
4. a portfolio of carbon management options;
5. CO2 stabilization pathways and sustainable Earth System
Vulnerability of carbon pools in the earth system
Grubber et al. 2004 (from SCOPE-GCP rapid assessment)
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Compile a catalogue of vulnerable C pools and their global distribution.
Quantify the extent of these vulnerable pools and their C content.
Assess the processes affecting the balance and release of C (incl. “thresholds)
Analyze the impacts of C release from vulnerable pools on a[CO2] and climate
NCEAS proposal 2004, submitted
Advanced Institute on
Urbanization, Emission, and
the Global Carbon Cycle
START-Packard Foundation
NCAR, Boulder, Colorado,
4 – 22 August 2003
Integrating carbon management into development
strategies of cities
Establishing a network of regional case studies
• Asia Pacific (funded)
• Central-South America (funded)
Source: Diane Pataki
C Consequences of Regional Development Pathways
Workshop Series (2004 – 2007):
Coupling the human dimensions to the climate-carbon system
Title: Coupling biophysical and human
dimensions of the carbon cycle.
Goal: To identify and develop key
methods, models, process knowledge
and interactions necessary to treat the
global carbon cycle as a coupled
carbon-climate-human system.
Topics:
• Dynamical-system and game-theory
approaches.
• Models of Intermediate Complexity
• Integrative Assessment Models
• Institutional dimensions
• Technological opportunities and
constraints
• Conceptual Frameworks
• Scenarios-based approaches
In preparation
Products
Synthesis Products
Canadell J, Zhou G,
Noble I (eds.) (2002)
Land use/cover
change effects on
terrestrial carbon
cycle in the Asian
Pacific region.
Science in China.
Special Issue 45
Supp.: 1-141.
GCP (2003) Science
framework and
implementation.
Canadell J, Dickinson
R, Hibbart K, Young O,
Raupach M (eds.).
ESSP Rept. No. 1;
GCP Report No. 1,
Canberra, p.69
Field C, Raupach M
(eds.) (2004) The
Global Carbon Cycle:
Integrating Humans,
Climate and the
Natural World.
Island Press,
Washington D.C.
(in press)
Canadell J, Ciais P,
Cox P, Heimann P
(eds.) (2004)
Quantifying Terrestrial
Carbon Sinks.
Climatic Change.
Special Issue
(in press)
All publications
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Canadell J, Ciais P, Cox P, Heimann M (2003) Quantifying terrestrial carbon sinks. Special issue in Climatic
Change (in preparation)
Field C, Raupach M, editors (2003) Towards CO2 stabilization: Issues, Strategies, and Consequences, Field C,
Raupach M (Eds.). Island Press, Washington D.C. (in press)
Global Carbon Project (2003). The GCP Science framework and Implementation. Canadell JG, Dickson R,
Raupach M, Young O (Eds). Earth Science System, Partnership (ESS) Report Series No.1, GCP Report Series No
1, Canberra, pp. 69
Sabine C, Hood M (2003) Ocean carbon scientists organize to acheive better coordination, cooperation . EOS 84:
218-220
Canadell J, Zhou G, Noble I, editors (2002) Land use/cover change effects on terrestrial carbon cycle in the Asian
Pacific region. Science in China. Special Issue 45 Supp.: 1-141.
Hibbard K, Steffen W, Benedict S, Busalachi T, Canadell J, Dickinson R, Raupach M, Smith B, Tilbrook B, Velling
P, Young O (2001) The carbon challenge. An IGBP-IHDP-WCRP project. Stockholm.
Pre-project products
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Schimel DS, House JI, Hibbard KA, Bousquet P, Ciais P, Peylin P, Braswell BH, Apps MA, Baker D, Bondeau A,
Canadell J, Churkina G, Cramer W, Denning AS, Field CB, Friedlingstein P, Goodale C, Heimann M, Houghton
RA, Melillo JM, Moore III B, Murdiyarso D, Noble I, Pacala SW, Prentice IC, Raupach MR, Rayner PJ, Scholes RJ,
Steffen WL, Wirth C (2001) Recent patterns and mechanisms of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems.
Nature 414: 169-172.
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Gupta J, Lebel L, Velling P, Young O, IHDP Secretariat (2001) IHDP Global Carbon cycle research. Bonn, IHDP.
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Falkowski P, RJ Scholes, E. Boyle, J. Canadell, D. Canfield, J. Elser, N. Gruber, K. Hibbard, P. Högberg, S. Linder,
F.T. Mackenzie, B. Moore III, T. Pederson, Y. Rosenthal, S. Seitzinger, V. Smetacek, W. Steffen [The IGBP Carbon
Working Group] (2000) The Global Carbon Cycle: A Test of our Knowledge of Earth as a System. Science 290:
291-296.
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Canadell J.G, Mooney H.A., Baldocchi D.D., Berry J.A., Ehleringer J.R., Field C.B., Gower S.T., Hollinger D.Y.,
Hunt J.E., Jackson R.B., Running S.W., Shaver G.R., Steffen W., Trumbore S.E., Valentini R., Bond B.Y. (2000).
Carbon Metabolism of the Terrestrial Biosphere: a multi-technique approach for improved understanding.
Ecosystems 3: 115-130.
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Steffen, W, Noble, I, Canadell, J, Apps, M, Schulze, E-D, Jarvis, PG, Baldocchi, D, Ciais, P, Cramer, W, Ehleringer,
J, Farquhar, G, Field, CB, Ghazi, A, Gifford, R, Heimann, M, Houghton, R, Kabat, P, Körner, C, Lambin, E, Linder,
S, Mooney, HA, Murdiyarso, D, Post, WM, Prentice, IC, Raupach, MR, Schimel, DS, Shvidenko, A and Valentini, R
(1998) The terrestrial carbon cycle: Implications for the Kyoto protocol. Science 280: 1393-1394.
www.globalcarbonproject.org