Transcript Cost-effectiveness

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
IIASA
Multi-pollutant / multi-effects:
Cost-effectiveness Analysis
for the 2nd NOx Protocol
A multi-pollutant/multi-effect problem
IIASA
SO2
NOx
NH3



Eutrophication


Ground-level
ozone

Acidification
VOC

Emission densities in 1990
IIASA
NOx
SO2
Emission densities in 1990
IIASA
NH3
VOC
Environmental targets
IIASA
In the year 2010, reduce
• health-relevant excess ozone exposure by 2/3,
• the area of ecosystems not protected against
acidification by 1/2,
• vegetation-relevant excess ozone exposure by 1/3,
• excess nitrogen deposition (eutrophication) by 60%.
Additional targets for ‘hot-spots’
The model: RAINS
IIASA
Energy/agriculture
projections
Emission control
options
Emissions
Costs
OPTIMIZATION
Atmospheric dispersion
Environmental impacts
Environmental
targets
Input assumptions
IIASA
Energy projections: ‘Pre-Kyoto’,
– EU: 10 national, 5 DG-XVII ‘Business as
usual’, consistent with EU NEC scenarios
– Non-EU: National projections via UN reporting
Agricultural projections:
– Reviewed by Member States
Input data
IIASA
Emission inventories:
CORINAIR’90/94
Cost curves:
Developed by IIASA, reviewed by countries
Atmospheric dispersion characteristics:
EMEP model results
Critical loads/levels:
National data based on common methodology,
collected and reviewed by CCE
Emission control options
SO2
IIASA
Low sulfur coal, coke
Low sulfur heavy fuel oil
Low sulfur gas oil
Limestone injection/Fluidized bed combustion
Flue gas desulfurization (FGD)
Advanced flue gas desulfurization
Emission control options
NOx - Stationary sources
IIASA
Combustion modifications - Low NOx burners,
exhaust gas re-circulation, staged combustion, etc.
Selective catalytic reduction (SCR) for large boilers
Non-selective catalytic reduction (SNCR) for
medium and large boilers
Control of industrial process emissions
Emission control options
Transport sector
IIASA
Gasoline cars
Euro-III, Euro-IV (post 2005 standards), small carbon
canisters
Diesel cars
Euro-III, Euro-IV (post 2005 standards)
Diesel heavy duty vehicles
Euro-III, Euro-IV (post 2005 standards)
Two-stroke engines
Oxidation catalysts
Off-road machinery
Standards equivalent to Euro-III, Euro-IV
Emission control options
VOC Stationary sources (1)
IIASA
Dry cleaning: Good housekeeping and adsorption,
closed circuit machines
Degreasing: Primary measures, carbon adsorption,
conveyored degreaser with integrated adsorption,
water based systems, low temperature plasma
Domestic solvents: Reformulation
Non-industrial paint use: Low solvent paints
Industrial paint use: Water based-, high solid-, powderpaints, application modifications, adsorption,
incineration
Emission control options
VOC Stationary sources (2)
IIASA
Production of rubber, paint, ink, etc.: Substitution,
solvent plans , ‘end-of-pipe’
Application of glues, adhesives (in industry):
Housekeeping, substitution, incineration
Printing: Housekeeping, water-based ink, ‘end-of-pipe’
Wood preservation: Double vacuum impregnation, dryer
enclosure, ‘end-of-pipe’
Refineries, chemical industry: Regular inspection &
maintenance, internal floating covers, vapor recovery
Fuel storage and distribution: Internal floating covers,
Stage I, Stage II
Emission control options
NH3
IIASA
Low nitrogen feed - multi-phase, synthetic amino acids
Bio-filtration - bio scrubbers
Animal house adaptation - improved design, floor
modifications, low NH3 poultry housing, etc.
Covered outdoor storage of manure - rigid lids, floating
covers
Low ammonia application techniques - immediate
incorporation, deep and shallow injection, etc.
Fertilizers - urea substitution
The starting point (REF)
IIASA
National legislation of countries
+ for EU Member States: present EU legislation and
recent Commission proposals/Council agreements
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Auto-Oil 1
Solvents Directive
Sulfur in liquid fuels Directive
Off-road machinery Directive
IPPC
Heavy duty vehicles post-2005 standards
LCP-II, etc.
Results: The G5/2 scenario
IIASA
Emission reductions
(compared to 1990)
REF
G5/2
SO2
-60%
-70%
NOx
-35%
-42%
VOC
-37%
-45%
NH3
-12%
-24%
Total
Control costs
(billion EURO/yr)
REF
G5/2
14.0
+1.8
52.6
+3.3
0.7
+3.4
67.3
+8.5
Country results: G5/2
IIASA
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
UK
EU-15
SO2
REF
G5/2
kt
Change
kt
Change
42
-55%
42
-55%
208
-38%
78
-77%
90
-51%
48
-74%
116
-50%
116
-50%
489
-61%
257
-79%
660
-88%
488
-91%
562
12%
562
12%
70
-61%
37
-79%
593
-65%
316
-81%
4
-71%
4
-71%
74
-63%
53
-74%
146
-49%
146
-49%
793
-64%
760
-65%
67
-44%
67
-44%
980
-74%
556
-85%
4894
-70%
3529
-78%
NOx
REF
G5/2
kt
Change
kt
Change
110
-43%
85
-56%
199
-43%
127
-64%
131
-52%
118
-57%
159
-42%
159
-42%
1017
-46%
699
-63%
1256
-53%
1040
-61%
344
0%
344
0%
73
-35%
58
-49%
1166
-43%
846
-58%
10
-55%
9
-59%
304
-44%
215
-60%
181
-13%
148
-29%
866
-25%
736
-37%
195
-42%
155
-54%
1186
-58%
1163
-59%
7197
-46%
5901
-55%
VOC
REF
G5/2
kt
Change
kt
Change
206
-41%
151
-57%
195
-48%
102
-73%
86
-53%
86
-53%
111
-48%
111
-48%
1256
-48%
1036
-57%
1100
-65%
891
-71%
268
-20%
262
-22%
55
-50%
55
-50%
1166
-43%
1082
-47%
7
-63%
7
-63%
237
-52%
161
-67%
144
-32%
102
-52%
669
-34%
648
-36%
283
-42%
254
-48%
1351
-49%
1124
-58%
7133
-49%
6073
-57%
NH3
REF
G5/2
kt
Change
kt
Change
67
-13%
65
-16%
96
-1%
57
-41%
72
-6%
69
-10%
31
-23%
31
-23%
798
-1%
649
-19%
571
-25%
412
-46%
74
-8%
73
-9%
126
-1%
116
-9%
416
-10%
356
-23%
7
0%
7
0%
136
-42%
106
-55%
67
-6%
65
-8%
353
0%
353
0%
48
-21%
48
-21%
297
-10%
264
-20%
3159
-12%
2671
-25%
Albania
Belarus
Bosnia-H
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Rep.
Estonia
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Norway
Poland
R.of Moldova
Romania
Russia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Switzerland
FYR of Maced.
Ukraine
Yugoslavia
Non-EU
55
494
415
846
70
366
175
546
104
107
33
1525
117
594
2344
137
76
36
81
1488
269
9877
-24%
-41%
-15%
-54%
-61%
-80%
-36%
-40%
-14%
-50%
-37%
-49%
-41%
-55%
-53%
-75%
-62%
-16%
-24%
-60%
-54%
-54%
55
494
313
355
31
279
175
296
104
107
22
736
38
205
2197
95
58
36
81
1377
242
7295
-24%
-41%
-36%
-81%
-83%
-85%
-36%
-68%
-14%
-50%
-58%
-75%
-81%
-85%
-56%
-83%
-71%
-16%
-24%
-63%
-59%
-66%
36
316
60
297
91
296
73
198
118
138
183
879
66
458
2798
132
36
85
29
1433
152
7873
50%
-21%
-25%
-16%
11%
-46%
-13%
-10%
1%
-10%
-17%
-28%
-24%
-12%
-20%
-40%
-40%
-48%
-26%
-24%
-28%
-23%
36
290
51
261
65
175
73
118
118
134
148
646
66
306
2762
101
32
81
29
1206
134
6832
50%
-28%
-36%
-26%
-21%
-68%
-13%
-46%
1%
-12%
-33%
-47%
-24%
-41%
-21%
-54%
-47%
-50%
-26%
-36%
-36%
-33%
41
309
48
190
111
304
49
160
56
105
195
807
42
504
2786
140
40
145
19
851
139
7042
32%
-17%
-6%
-3%
8%
-31%
8%
-21%
-10%
-6%
-34%
1%
-16%
0%
-21%
-7%
-27%
-48%
1%
-27%
-2%
-18%
41
298
48
189
99
222
49
153
56
105
195
513
42
499
2706
139
40
145
19
799
139
6497
32%
-20%
-6%
-3%
-3%
-50%
8%
-25%
-10%
-6%
-34%
-36%
-16%
-1%
-24%
-8%
-27%
-48%
1%
-31%
-2%
-25%
35
163
23
126
37
108
29
137
35
81
21
541
48
304
894
47
21
66
16
649
82
3462
9%
-26%
-26%
-11%
-8%
1%
0%
14%
-19%
1%
-9%
7%
2%
4%
-30%
-22%
-9%
-8%
-6%
-11%
-9%
-13%
32
140
22
108
27
101
29
73
35
72
21
474
46
227
894
34
15
63
15
589
67
3084
0%
-36%
-29%
-23%
-33%
-6%
0%
-39%
-19%
-10%
-9%
-6%
-2%
-22%
-30%
-43%
-35%
-13%
-12%
-19%
-26%
-23%
Total
14771
-61%
10824
-71%
15070
-36%
12733
-46%
14175
-37%
12570
-44%
6621
-12%
5755
-24%
Main measures
in EU countries
IIASA
SO2: Control of existing boilers, low sulfur fuels
NOx: Control of existing boilers, small sources, off-road
machinery
VOC: Low solvent paints, application of glues and
adhesives, Stage II for gasoline stations
NH3: Urea substitution, low emission animal houses,
low ammonia application techniques
Modified ambition levels
Acidification
IIASA
90
G5/3
Costs above REF (Billion EURO/yr)
80
G5/2
G5/1
70
REF
60
50
40
30
20
10
1990
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Unprotected hectares (million ha)
70
80
90
100
Modified ambition levels
Population exposure index
IIASA
90
G5/3
80
Costs above REF (Billion EURO/yr)
G5/2
70
G5/1
REF
60
50
40
30
20
10
1990
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Population exposure index (million persons.ppm.hours)
1400
1600
Per-capita costs
EU countries, EU Scenario H1
IIASA
300
Total emission control costs/capita (EURO/yr)
Belgium
Luxembourg
Netherlands
200
Sweden
Italy
Ireland
Greece
Finland
Spain
Portugal
Austria
Germany
EU-15
UK
France
H1
REF
Denmark
100
0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Average ozone population exposure index of REF(ppm.h)
3.0
3.5
Uncertainty treatment
IIASA
• Standard uncertainty analysis is time consuming
• Potential influence of uncertainties minimized by
– Explicit model confidence intervals
– Integral functions for environmental exposure
– Compensation mechanism for targets
– Excluding extreme situations
– Use of ‘gap closure’ targets (relative improvements)
• Identification of potential biases
Potential biases (1)
IIASA
• Critical loads could be stricter ...
– Dynamic effects ignored
– Limited spatial resolution
• Critical levels for vegetation (ozone) could be too
strict ...
– Level 2 approach
• Population exposure (ozone) …
– overestimated in city centers
– underestimated in suburbs
Potential biases (2)
IIASA
• Constant background ozone ….
– ignores decreasing emissions in Europe and N. America
– ignores increasing emissions in Asia
• Emission control costs too high …
– ‘Pre-Kyoto’ energy projections
– Add-on technologies only
• Emission control potential too small …
– Technological progress ignored
– No structural changes considered
Sensitivity analyses
IIASA
‘Post-Kyoto’ energy projections
‘Low NH3’ agriculture
‘High SO2’ energy scenario
‘High NH3’ agriculture
Changes in SO2 emissions compared to 1990
REF
J1
J2 Post-Kyoto
J3 High SO2
J4 Low NH3
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
-100%
J5 High NH3
Yugoslavia
Ukraine
Macedonia
Switzerland
Slovenia
Slovakia
Russia
Romania
Moldova
Poland
Norway
Lithuania
Latvia
Hungary
Estonia
Czech_R.
Croatia
Bulgaria
Bosnia-H
Belarus
Albania
UK
Sweden
Spain
Portugal
Netherlands
Luxembourg
Italy
Ireland
Greece
Germany
France
Finland
Denmark
Belgium
Austria
Sensitivity analysis - results
Variations in SO2 reductions
IIASA
Environmental impacts
Days with ozone above WHO guideline (60 ppb)
IIASA
G5/2 - 2010
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
Unit:
8
6
4
2
10
12
14
1990
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
%
0.0
0.0
1.0
5.0
10.0
25.0
50.0
100.0
36
38
Environmental impacts
% Ecosystems not protected against acidification
IIASA
G5/2 - 2010
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
Unit:
8
6
4
2
10
12
14
1990
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
%
0.0
0.0
1.0
5.0
10.0
25.0
50.0
100.0
36
38
Environmental impacts
% Ecosystems not protected against eutrophication
IIASA
G5/2 - 2010
1990
Uniform or effect-based scenarios?
IIASA
20
Costs above REF (Billion EURO/yr)
G5/3
UNIFORM
PER CAPITA
EMISSIONS
15
UNIFORM
% REDUCTION
10
G5/2
G5/1
5
REF
0
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Population exposure index (million persons.ppm.hours)
550
600
Documentation
IIASA
• Methodology papers
• Latest databases
• All scenario analyses, interim reports to ECE
and EU
• On-line model (web version)
available at
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains