Transcript Chapter 9

Chapter 7
The Human Population
Part 1
STNT 42
• Case study questions are separate.
• Questions are provided.
Case Study: The Environmental Implications
of China’s Growing Populations
1. What is China’s population? How does China rank
in population?
2. What is the population of the U.S.?
3. Which of the two countries is the largest consumer
of resources and the greatest producer of
pollution?
4. What are the advantages to Chinese people who
follow the “one child” policy?
Case Study continued
5. What other tools has China used to manage
their population growth?
6. What is China’s fertility rate today?
7. Why is it that even with China’s drop in fertility
rate their resource consumption rate is
increasing?
8. When is the population of China expected to
decline?
9. What is China doing to offset their
environmental problems?
Is the World Overpopulated?
The world’s population is now at 7 billion.
• October 31, 2011 was a symbolic date which was
based on data on the most recently available
censuses, population registers and other data from
each country.
• It is very likely that there are inevitable inaccuracies
in all demographic statistics especially in a significant
number of developing countries.
1. Explain the reasons for inaccuracies in demographic
statistics especially in developing countries.
2. How Would You Vote?
7 Billion People are Breeding Exponentially
Should the population of the U.S. be stabilized as soon
as possible? Answer with a brief explaination.
• a) Yes. Governments should use incentives and
penalties.
• b) Yes. However, only through indirect means, like
education, or by relying on demographic transition.
• c) No. The population of my country could continue to
grow without serious consequences.
Earth’s Carrying Capacity
• Every 5 days the
global human
population increases
by about 1 million
people.
• The population was
stable until a few
hundred years ago.
• Human population
growth has been
exponential for the last
400 years.
Population Increase
3. What are three major factors accounting
for the exponential population increase?
Thomas Malthus
• The question is have we or will we outgrow the
supply of food, water, timber, fuel and other
resources?
• 1798 Thomas Malthus made some population
observations and predictions identified by this graph.
4. What were Malthus’
observations?
5. What were Malthus’
predictions?
Actually, what has happened?
6. Did Thomas
Malthus’
predictions
come true?
7. Actually, what
has happened
to our food
production?
8. Explain how this
has happened.
Changes in Population Size
9. Define Demography
Add to formula page.
9. Define migration and explain the two types.
Changes in Population Size
• CBR – crude birth rate
• Number of births per 1,000 individuals
• CDR – crude death rate
• Number of deaths per 1,000 individuals
11. Why do you not factor migration when doing
global population rates?
Population Formulas
• Global Population Rate = CBR – CDR
10
• National Population Rate = (CBR + immigr.) – (CDR + emmigr.)
10
• %Growth rate = present population – past population
past population
X 100
Because the birth and death rates are expressed by 1,000 people, we divide by
10 in order to represent the value as a percentage.
Add to Formula page
Do the Math: Growth Rates
Growth Rate
•
•
•
•
Generation 1
Generation 2
Generation 3
Generation 4
14
18
22
40
_____________
_____________
_____________
Doubling Time
• If you know the growth rate of a population and
assume the rate is constant you can calculate the
doubling time.
• The time it would take the population to
double in size.
• Doubling time in years =
70____
growth rate
Add to formula page
12. How long would it take a population to
double at a 2% growth rate?
Do The Math
13.If the population of rabbits in an ecosystem
grows at a rate of approximately 4% per
year, the number of years required for the
rabbit population to double is closest to:
A. 4 years
B. 8 years
C. 12 years
D. 17 years
E. 25 years
Projected World Population
• This is a graph of the projected world population.
• Most demographers believe the Earth’s population will not
double again.
• There is a
range of
population
estimates.
14. When are we
predicted to
reach Earth’s
carrying
capacity?
15. How old will
you be?
16. The Lily Pond Parable
A. If a pond lily double everyday and it takes 30 days
to completely cover a pond, on what day will the
pond be ¼ covered?
B. ½ covered?
C. Does the size of the pond make a difference?
D. What kind of environmental consequences can be
expected as the 30th day approaches?
E. What will begin to happen at one minute past the
30th day?
F. At what point (what day) would preventative action
become necessary to prevent unpleasant events?
Fertility
17. Define TFR – Total Fertility Rate
18. What is the TFR for the United States?
19. Define Replacement-level fertility.
20.What would be the typical replacement?
21.How does the replacement level differ in
developed countries vs. developing
countries?
22.What makes the difference?
Life Expectancy
• Average number of years that an infant born in a
particular year in a particular country can be
expected to live, given the current average life
span and death rate of that country.
23. What would be true of a country with a higher
life expectancy?
24. What does a higher life expectancy predict?
25. What is the difference between the life
expectancy for males vs. females and what are
the reasons for the difference.
Average Life Expectancies
around the World
70 years now
Life Expectancy
• Women
# 1 Japan
#35 United States
• Men
#1 Qatar
#36 United States
• Countries #1 Japan
#33 United States
Lowest Sierra Leone
86
81
81
76
83
79
47
• Oldest living person – 122 years
• Jeanne Calment lived on her
own until 110 and then
moved into a nursing home.
Qater
Infant and Child Mortality
26. What is the
difference
between
infant and
child
mortality?
#1
Singapore 1.92
#34 U.S.
6.81
#188 Afghanistan 135.95
Sweden 2.5
France 3.6
Infant Mortality
27. Why is infant mortality is the single best
indicator of a society’s quality of life?
28. List the reasons that U.S. infant mortality is
higher than it could be.
29. How does infant mortality in the U.S. vary
between African American, Native American
and Caucasian infants. What are the reason for
this difference?
30. What information can you learn about a
country based on its infant mortality rates?
Aging and Disease
• A country might have a high CDR not because of a
low standard of living but because it has a high
number of older individuals.
31. What are the largest causes of death
worldwide?
The AIDS Tragedy
• AIDS is projected to cause
premature deaths of 278
million people between
2000 – 2050.
• This will be deaths of young
people 15-49, not infants.
32. What are the effects of
the loss of young adults in
a nation?
33. Which area is most
affected by the AIDS
tragedy?
POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE
• Visual
representation of
age structure in a
country for males
and females.
34. What does each
horizontal bar
represent?
35. What do the
three colors
represent?
36. Which part of the
age structure graph
is the major factor
in determining a
country’s
population growth?
Population Momentum
37. Define population momentum.
POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE
• 2006
• 32% of the people in developing
countries were under 15 years
• 17% in developed countries.
• Youthful age structure contributes
to an unemployment crisis.
• Provides for social unrest and
recruits for terrorist activities.
Figure 6-9
POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE
• About 14% of the world’s population live in countries with
stabilizing or declining populations.
• Rapid population decline can lead to long-lasting economic
and social problems.
• Death from AIDS can disrupt a country’s social and
economic structure by removing significant numbers of
young adults.
38. What are the costs of an aging population?
United States Population
Political clout
Lack of advancement in jobs
due to boomers retiring later.
39. What caused the baby boom?
40. What caused the baby bust?
41. What caused the echo baby boom?
U.S. Baby Boomers
• Today, baby boomers make up nearly half of all adult
Americans.
42. How does the size of the baby boomer population affect
economics in the United Stages?
Chapter 7
Human Population
Part 2
STNT 40 questions are provided.
Migration
1. Explain the increase in population in the U.S.
considering a TFR of 2.1.
2. Define Net migration rate.
3. What is a positive/negative net migration rate?
U.S. Immigration
• Since 1820, the U.S. has
admitted almost twice
as many immigrants
and refugees as all
other countries
combined.
Immigration
• Between 1820 and 1960 most legal immigrants
came from Europe.
4. Since 1960 most where have most of the U.S.
immigrants come from?
5. What would be the benefit for the U.S. putting a
limit on immigration?
6. What are the benefits for the U.S. allowing
immigration?
Migration
• This is a national not a global affect.
• Displaced due to disease, natural disasters, wars…
• Leads to:
• Most of the migration is movement of people from
developing countries to developed countries.
• Net migration rate = number of immigrants
number of people in the population
Add this formula to your formula page.
Do The Math: Calculating
Population Growth
• New Zealand has a population of 4.3 million
people, a TFR of 2.1 and a net migration rate
of 2 per 1,000.
7. How many people will New Zealand gain next
year as a result of immigration?
8. If the TFR stays the same for the next century, and
the net migration rate stays the same as well,
when will the population of New Zealand double?
Theory of Demographic Transition
• Most demographers believe that the Earth’s
population is likely to level off by 2100 without
doubling again.
9. Explain the theory of demographic transition.
• Add this theory to your laws page of your notebook.
4 Phases of Demographic Transition
10.For each stage:
• Identify the name.
Phase 1
Slow Population Growth
• CBR = CDR
11. Describe the birth rate, death
rate and total population size
during this phase.
12. Explain the circumstances which
caused birth and death rates to
be fairly equal.
Phase 2
Rapid Population Growth
13. Describe the birth rate, death
rate and total population size
during this phase.
14. Explain the circumstances
which allowed the rapid
population growth.
15. Which countries are in phase 2
of demographic transition?
Phase 3
Stable Population Growth
16. Describe birth rates, death rates
and total population size during
this phase.
17. Explain the relationship
between increase in economy
and education which results in
decline in birth rates.
18. How can such a decrease in birth
rates result in exponential
growth in this phase?
19. What information can you get from this graph?
Phase 4
Declining Population Growth
• Relatively high level of affluence and
economic development
• Japan, United Kingdom, Germany,
Russia, Italy.
• Fewer young people
• High proportion of elderly people
20. What are the economic and societal
effects of a declining population?
21. What is happening to birth rates,
death rates and total population
during this phase?
Family Planning
22. Define family planning.
23. What services are included in family planning?
24. What benefits other than population decline
come from family planning?
Family Planning
25. What are the environmental characteristics of a
nation with lower birth rates?
26. List some ideas to improve family planning.
Empowering Women
• Provide education, paying jobs, support their
human rights.
• Women form ½ the world’s population
• Do almost all the world’s domestic work and childcare.
• 60 – 80% of work associated with growing food,
gathering fuelwood, hauling water.
• Work 2/3 of all hours worked and receive 10% of
the pay.
• Make up to 70% of the world’s poor and 64% of
the world’s illiterate adults.
TFR Educated vs. Uneducated
Women
Developing Countries
27. What information do you get from this graph?
Factors Affecting Birth Rates/Fertility Rates
• Importance of children in the work force.
• The cost of raising and educating them.
• Availability of pensions.
• Urbanization.
• Education/employment opportunities for women.
• Infant deaths
• Marriage age.
• Availability of contraception and abortion.
• Religious beliefs, traditions, cultural norms.
28. Compare these factors in developed vs. developing
countries.
Births per woman
Peak of Baby Boom 1957
3.7 Children
Fig. 6-4
Baby boom
(1946–64)
Replacement
Level
Amazing changes in lifestyle
lead to dramatic increases in
per capita resource use.
Year
How many children are in your family?
How many children do you plan to have?
China’s Family Planning Program
• Family planning was initiated in 1970.
• From 1979 – 1990 there was a strict one-child
policy.
• This lead to forced abortions, female infanticide
and underreporting of female births.
• China moved 300 million people out of poverty.
• The government policy is more lenient now.
• Couples with less children get:
• Extra food, larger pensions, better housing,
bonuses, free school, preferential employment.
• Free sterilization, contraception, abortion to
married couples.
• China is depending on education of the
population as to the benefits of a reduced
population.
• China’s TFR is 1.6 children per women.
India’s Failed
Family Planning Program
• Poor planning - Bureaucratic inefficiency.
• Low status of women.
• Extreme poverty – ½ of work force is unemployed.
• Lack of administrative financial support.
• Disagreement over the best ways to slow population
growth.
• Half of crop land is depleted due to soil erosion.
• 2/3 of water is polluted, inadequate sanitation.
• Poor need more children to support them.
• Preference for male children.
2010-2015
Japan – A Declining Population
• Birthrates are low.
• TFR 1.3
• Life expectancy is high.
• Marriage rate has plunged, the divorce rate is higher than in
Northern Europe.
• Traditional stigma around the out-of-wedlock childbearing.
• Unmarried Japanese are more likely to embrace voluntary
childlessness.
• Also Japan has a low immigration rate.
• One of the highest suicide rates in the developed world.
• “Parasite singles” – young adults who still live with their
parents
POPULATION SIZE
• The world’s 10 most
populous countries in 2008.
• 1of 5 people is Chinese.
• 1of 6 people is Indian.
• China + India = 36%.
• U.S. is the third largest but
only 4.5% of the people.
29. What is the population for
China, Japan and the U.S.?
30. Which countries are expected
to decline in population?
Population Size and Resource Use
• Anthropogenic impact
• Population size
• Resource use
• 7 billion people on earth
• 5.7 billion in developing
countries
• 2.3 billion in developed
countries
31. Which countries on this list
are developed countries?
12 Largest Countries
• 97% of growth is
expected to take place
in developing countries.
• Many people in the
developing countries
have reached middle
class status.
32. What are the
environmental
impacts of increase in
middle class?
Per Capita Ecological Footprint
• Measure of affluence – money, goods, property.
Calculating the Country’s Footprint
• Multiply the country’s per capita ecological
footprint by the number of people in the
country.
• U.S. footprint
• 2,810 million hectares (6,944 acres)
• China
• 2,790 million hectares (6,894 acres)
• U.S. has 1/4th the population of China
The IPAT Equation
• To estimate the impact of human lifestyles on
earth:
33. What is the IPAT equation?
34. How does each of the following affect the
equation?
• Population
• Affluence
• Technology
• Destructive technology
• Effective technology
Local, Global,
Urban Impacts
• Local
• Most of the materials
consumed in developing
countries are produced locally.
35. What are the benefits?
36. What are the environmental
impacts?
37. What are the two most
commonly overused
resources?
Global Impacts
• Agriculture – conversion of land
• Reduction in uptake of CO2
• Increase in fertilizers made from fossil fuels increases
greenhouse gases.
• Developed countries
• Consume less local resources
• Greater global impact
• Consumption of imported energy and foods.
• Homes with lawns requiring fertilizers, pesticides, water.
• Development of suburbs means replacing natural or
agricultural areas with lawns and asphalt.
Urban Impacts
• Urban area
• More than 386 people per
square km or 1,000 people
per square mile.
• Of the 20 largest cities in
the world, 15 are in
developing countries.
• More than 75% of people
in developed countries live
in urban areas.
• 45% in developing
countries – many more
people in rural areas.
Impact of Affluence
• GDP
• Measure of a nation’s wealth
• Value of all products and services produced in a year in that
country.
38. What does a low level GDP tell about that country?
39. What are some negative effects of an increase in GDP?
40. What is the turning point of GDP as a nation reaches a more
developed status?