Transcript Population Projection for Development Planning in Malaysia

Tey Nai Peng
Ng Sor Tho
Tan Pei Pei
(Faculty of Economics and Administration
University of Malaya)
Outline of presentation
 Inter-relationships between population and
development
 Use of population projection
 Demographic trends
 Data and method
 Population projection
 Estimating the requirements for education, health and
the economy
 Discussion and conclusion
Population and development
 PoA adopted at 1994 ICPD -a new strategy to meet the
needs of individuals rather than on achieving
demographic targets.
 People are producers (human resources) and
consumers (whose needs must be met).
 Past Malaysia Plans incorporated population factors.
Use of Population Projection
 Development planning to improve the wellbeing of the
population, and business planning (domestic market)
 Meeting the demands for education and health,
infrastructure, housing, jobs and other basic goods
and services
 Changing age structure have important implications
for marketing and employment planning
 Use to set the time frame to achieve a target
population – e.g. Convince the government that the
70 million population is to be achieved in 115 years
Demographic trends - ROG
 Population growing at around 2.5-2.7 for most of the
time post Independence, but slowed down to 2%
between 2000 and 2010.
 Population hit 30 million mark in February 2014, at a
annualized rate of 1.56%, slower pace but still
increasing by 455 thousand persons annually
Declining total fertility rate –
replacement level fertility
Consequences of demographic
transition
 Low birth rate and death rate
 Changes in the age structure, ethnic composition
 Labour shortage (fertility reduction and rapid
economic growth)
 Influx of migrant workers
Data and methods
 Data from population censuses, vital statistics and
social statistics bulletin
 Cohort component method – births, deaths and
migration
 DemProj and Rapid under the Spectrum system
developed by Futures Group for UN
Input data for population
projection
2010
2020
2030
2040
TFR
2.13
2.07
1.94
1.8
Male
life
expectancy
71.7
73.6
75.1
76.6
Female
life
expectancy
76.2
77.3
78.6
80
Male
8,657
8,657
8,657
8,657
Female
8,242
8,242
8,242
8,242
Immigration
Input data for education (assumed)
Education
2010
2020
2030
2040
Primary school enrolment rate (%)
96
100
100
100
Students per primary school teacher
12
11
11
11
360
360
360
360
4,033
4,688
5,344
6,000
Secondary school enrolment rate (%)
Students per secondary school
teacher
80
83.3
86.7
90
13
12
11
10
Students per secondary school
Recurrent expenditure per secondary
school student (RM)
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
4,321
5,547
6,773
8,000
Students per primary school
Recurrent expenditure per primary
school student (RM)
Input data for health
Health
2010
2020
2030
2040
Population per doctor
867
687.1
593.6
500
Population per nurse
414
392.7
371.3
350
3,800
3,380
2,940
2,500
75,257
66,838
58,419
50,000
611
507.3
403.7
300
1,200
1,800
2,400
3,000
Population
center/clinic
per
health
Population per hospital
Population per hospital bed
Annual health expenditure per
person (RM)
Input data for economic sector
Male labour force participation
rate
Female
labour
force
participation rate
Base year gross domestic
product (GDP - RM Millions)
Annual growth rate in GDP %
2010
2020
2030
2040
80.5
80.5
80.5
80.5
49.5
53
56.5
60
4.93
4.97
5
1,000,000
4.9
Population projection up to2040
Comparing with DOSM and UN
UN projection – population will peak at 44.2 million in 2070
Authors’ Own
DOSM
UN
Projection
2010
28.6
28.6
28.3
2015
30.5
30.5
30.7
2020
32.6
32.4
32.9
2025
34.5
34.3
35.0
2030
36.1
36.0
36.8
2035
37.4
37.4
38.5
2040
38.4
38.6
39.9
Summary statistics (1)
CBR per 1000
CDR per 1000
CRNI percent
GR percent
Annual Births
Annual Deaths
Total pop
2010
17.3
5.1
1.22
1.27
493,585
145,997
2015
17.6
5.0
1.26
1.32
538,334
153,302
2020
17.1
5.3
1.18
1.23
557,657
172,882
28,588,800
30,530,627
32,561,308
Summary statistics (2)
Percent 0-4
Percent 5-14
Percent 15-24
Percent 15-64
Percent 65+
Dependency ratio
Median age
Urban population
Rural population
Percent urban
2010
8.77
18.59
20.11
67.65
4.98
0.48
26
20,125,200
8,463,600
70.4
2015
8.38
16.91
18.03
68.9
5.82
0.45
28
22,134,704
8,395,922
72.5
2020
8.39
15.53
16.37
69.21
6.87
0.44
31
24,420,981
8,140,327
75
Age structural changes – demographic dividend
and aging
Population pyramid, 2010, 2040
Requirements for primary education –
concentration in urban areas, replacement needed
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2020
Students
Teachers
Schools
3,055,061
3,092,060
3,123,787
3,128,162
3,096,803
3,094,004
3,005,583
254,588
257,672
260,316
260,680
258,067
257,834
273,235
8,486
8,589
8,677
8,689
8,602
8,594
8,349
Expenditure
(RM billion)
12.3
12.7
13.0
13.2
13.3
13.5
14.1
Requirements for secondary education
Students
Teachers
Schools Expenditure
(RM billion)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2020
3,129,209
3,100,977
3,074,637
3,054,777
3,044,004
3,042,314
3,054,240
240,708
240,386
240,206
240,534
241,588
243,385
254,520
3,129
3,101
3,075
3,055
3,044
3,042
3,054
13.5
13.8
14.0
14.3
14.6
15.0
16.9
Requirements for health sector
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2020
Doctors
32,974
36,520
38,599
39,641
40,710
41,815
47,756
Nurse
69,055
70,398
71,790
73,195
74,624
76,093
83,558
Health
centres/cl
inics
7,523
7,716
7,879
8,087
8,302
8,522
9,706
Hospital
Hospitals beds
380
46,790
390
48,280
400
49,826
410
51,447
421
53,134
432
54,879
491
64,682
Health
exp (RM
billion)
34.31
36.54
38.82
41.17
43.57
46.03
59.06
Requirements for economic sector
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2020
Labour force
(thousand)
12,684
12,957
13,218
13,469
13,716
13,962
15,142
New
jobs
(thousand)
273
261
252
247
246
245
197
GDP
per
capita (RM)
34,979
36,176
37,413
38,695
40,024
41,403
49,241
Discussion (1)
 Development planning is aimed at reducing regional
disparity and improving the standard of living and making
places more livable. Hence, there is a need to identify areas
where population is growing rapidly, and also the
population groups that are under-served. Population
projections merely provide the number of “producers” and
“consumers” of goods and services, we have to determine
the standard to be achieved. E.g. to achieve a hospital bed
population ratio of about 13.7 per 1000 population found in
Japan and Korea, the number of hospital beds required in
2015 will be 7 to 8 times higher than that indicated above.
Discussion (2)
 More detailed projections at sub-national levels are needed




– target population.
Population in the different states and regions grew at
different pace, resulting in population redistribution.
Between 1980 and 2010, the average annual rate of
population growth ranges from 0.9 per cent in Perak to 4.3
per cent annum in Selangor and 3.9 percent in Sabah.
In 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. urban population grew at 6.2
percent, 4.8 percent and 3.4 per cent respectively, in
contrast to zero growth in the 1980s and depopulation of
0.24 percent and 0.8 percent per annum in the rural areas.
More attention needs to be given to urban planning
Discussion (3)
 Implications of rapid urban growth
 Inequality in accessibility to services
 Less developed states/areas fare worse than the more
developed states/areas
 Need to reduce regional disparities in education,
health, etc.
Discussion (4)
 Younger population stop growing
 Opportunities to improve the quality of human
resources/capital- issues of eroding standard in
education
 Addressing the social problems and meeting the needs
of young people – education, employment,
reproductive health etc.
Discussion (5)
 Population ageing -need to improve the social security
schemes and promote active and productive ageing
 Increase in life expectancy must be accompanied by
improvement in health expectancy.
 Non-communicable diseases associated with unhealthy life
style are also poses abecoming a major health problem.
 Promoting healthy life style and healthy living must be
accorded the highest priority, to ensure that the additional
years of life are not spent in ill health, which s a burden to
the health care system.
Conclusion
 Much more remains to be done to provide the necessary
data to planners for them to allocate the required resources
to meet the needs of the various segments and sub-groups
of the population such as ethnic groups, occupational
groups, people with disability, the indigenous, etc at the
sub-national level.
 Population projections and estimating the needs for the
various population groups entails the collection of the
relevant data and indicators at these levels.