The Political Economy of International Trade Chapter 5
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Transcript The Political Economy of International Trade Chapter 5
The Political Economy of International
Trade
Chapter 5
© McGraw Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
EU-US and Beef
1989 - EU bars growth hormone treated beef.
US exports decline form $231mm in ‘88 to
$98mm in ‘94.
With other countries, US files complaint to WTO.
US wins (1998) - WTO Panel
declares ban to be illegal.
EU reluctant to comply and
appeals, but loses the appeal.
1999 - US threatens to raise
tariffs on hundreds of EU products.
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US Targets EU
Beef
Pork
Sausages
Corned Beef
Roquefort Cheese
Chocolate Products
Mustards
Chewing Gum
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Soups and Broths
Truffles
Mineral Water
Cut Flowers
Yarn
Electric Hair Clippers
Motorcycles and
Mopeds
5-2
Trade Policy and Politics
Protecting jobs and industries:
emerging industries.
Increasing exports.
National security.
Retaliation.
International product domination:
New trade theory and subsidies.
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Instruments of Trade Policy
Tariffs
Tariffs - oldest form of trade policy
Specific
ad valorem
Good for government
Good for producers
But reduces efficiency
Bad for consumers
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Instruments of Trade Policy
Subsidies
A payment to a domestic producer.
Cash grants
low-interest loans
tax breaks
government equity participation in the
company
• Airbus
Subsidy revenues generated from taxes.
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Subsidies
(Cash Value)
7
6
5
4
3
Percent
2
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Ireland
Sweden
W. Ger.
UK
Japan
US
0
IDC
1
5-6
Subsidies to EC Manufacturers
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Greece
Italy
Portugal
Ireland
Belgium
Spain
France
Holland
Luxembourg
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Germany
%
GB
(Percent of Value Added)
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Instruments of Trade Policy
Import Quotas and
Voluntary Export Restraints
Import Quota:
Restriction on the quantity of some good
imported into a country.
Voluntary Export Restraint (VER):
Quota on trade imposed by exporting country,
typically at the request of the importing
country.
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Results of Japanese VERs
Benefits producers by limiting import
competition
Japan - limited to 1.85 mm vehicles/year
Cost to consumers - $1B/year between ‘81 - 85.
Money went to Japanese producers
in the form of higher prices.
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Instruments of Trade Policy
Local Content Requirements
Requires some specific fraction of a good to be
produced domestically.
Percent of component parts.
Percent of the value of the good.
Initially used by developing countries to help shift
from assembly to production of goods.
Developed countries (US) beginning to implement.
For component part manufacturer, LCR acts the
same as an import quota.
Benefits producers, not consumers.
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Instruments of Trade Policy
Antidumping Policies
Defined variously as:
Selling goods in a foreign market below
production costs.
Selling goods in a foreign market below fair
market value.
Result of:
Unloading excess production.
Predatory behavior.
Remedy: seek imposition of tariffs.
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Instruments of Trade Policy
Administrative Policies
Bureaucratic rules designed to make it
difficult for imports to enter a country.
Japanese ‘masters’ in imposing rules.
Tulip bulbs.
Federal Express.
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Annual Cost to American
Consumers for Import Protection
$ Millions
30
Textiles
25
20
Consumer Losses
Producer Gains
15
10
Automobiles Dairy
5
Meat
Sugar
0
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Political Arguments for Intervention
Protecting jobs and industries.
VERs.
National security.
Defense industries - semiconductors.
Retaliation.
Protecting consumers.
Furthering foreign policy objectives.
Helms-Burton Act.
Protecting human rights.
MFN.
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National Security
World Semiconductor Production
60
50
40
Japan
USA
30
20
10
0
1974
76
78
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80
82
84
86
88
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Retaliation
US Trade Sanctions
Partial List
25
20
15
New
Sanctions
10
98
97
95
0
1993
5
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Afghanistan Italy
Burma
Libya
Canada
Nigeria
China
N. Korea
Cuba
Pakistan
India
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Sudan
Iraq
Syria
Yugoslavia
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Retaliation
Helms-Burton Act
1996.
Allows American to sue foreign firms that
use property in Cuba confiscated from them
after the 1959 revolution.
Backlash
Violates a state’s sovereignty.
Also passed the D’Amato Act - Libya and
Iran.
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Economic Arguments for Intervention
Infant industry.
Oldest argument - Alexander Hamilton, 1792.
Protected under the WTO.
Only good if it makes the industry efficient.
• Brazil auto-makers - 10th largest - wilted when protection eliminated.
Requires government financial assistance.
• If a good investment, global capital markets would invest.
Strategic trade policy.
Government helps raise national income if first-mover
advantage successful.
Government intervention may help domestic firms overcome
first-mover advantage of foreign firms.
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The Impact of Subsidies
(Airbus versus Boeing)
Airplane Orders
800
700
600
500
Boeing
Airbus
400
300
200
100
0
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
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Development of the World
Trading System
Intellectual arguments for free trade:
Adam Smith and David Ricardo.
Free trade as government policy:
Britain’s (1846) repeal of the Corn Laws.
Britain continued free trade policy.
Fear of trade war.
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World War I to World War II
1918 - 1939
Great Depression
US stock market collapse
Smoot-Hawley (1930)
• US had positive trade balance with world
• Foreign response was to impose own barriers
• US exports tumbled
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General Agreement on Tariffs
and Trade
WWII allies want international organization in trade
arena similar to UN in political arena.
GATT proposed by US in 1947 as step toward ITO.
1948: Havana Conference.
Failed charter for the International Trade
Organization.
GATT
19 original members
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GATT
Multilateral agreement: objective is to
liberalize trade by eliminating tariffs, subsidies,
import quotas, etc.
Used ‘rounds’ to gradually reduce trade
barriers.
Generalized System of Preferences
MFN status
Products of LDCs are given duty free
access to IDCs.
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GATT Negotiating Rounds
Geneva 947
Annecy 1949
Torquay 1950-51
Geneva 1956
Dillon 1960-62
Kennedy 1964-67
Tokyo 1973-79
Uruguay 1986-94
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23
13
38
26
45
62
99
117
Growth Under GATT
9.0
%
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
1953-63
1963-73
World Trade
World Income
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Average Reduction in US Tariff
Rates 1947 - 85
120
Index
Pre-Geneva
Tariff = 100
100
80
60
40
20
To
ky
o
K
en
ne
dy
illo
n
D
G
en
ev
a
ay
To
rq
u
An
n
ec
ev
a
G
en
ev
a
en
G
Pr
e-
Figure 5.1
y
0
GATT Negotiating Rounds
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GATT- Disturbing Trends
1980 - 1990s
Increase power of Japan’s economic
machine.
US trade deficit.
GATT circumvented by many countries.
VERs
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Uruguay Round
Most comprehensive trade agreement in
history.
Created the World Trade Organization.
Impacted:
Agriculture subsidies (stumbling block: US/EU).
Applied GATT rules to services and intellectual
property.
Strengthened GATT monitoring and
enforcement.
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USA
France
GB
Germany
Italy
Japan
Spain
Holland
Belgium
90
80
70
$Billions 60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Austria
Leading Exporters of Services
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GATT Criticisms
Economic theories don’t fit the ‘real world’
model.
US global preeminence has declined.
Shift from cutting tariffs to eliminating
non-tariff barriers angered countries.
‘National Treatment’ or ‘Most Favored
Nation’ status results in inequalities.
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Impact of GATT
Currently, >120 members.
Represents 90% of world trade.
9 of 10 disputes satisfactorily settled.
Tariff reduction from 40% to 5%.
Trade volume of manufactured goods has
increased 20 times.
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World Trade Organization
Umbrella organization for:
GATT
Services
Intellectual property
154 Rue de Lausanne, Geneva
Responsibility for trade arbitration:
Reports adopted unless specifically rejected.
After appeal, fail to comply can result in
compensation to injured country or trade
sanctions.
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WTO -World Policeman?
104 disputes brought to WTO in first three
years.
196 handled by GATT during its 50 year
history.
US is biggest WTO user - 34 disputes.
Big wins - beef - bananas
Big loss - Kodak
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WTO - Leading Victories
Telecommunications
68 countries (90%) of world
telecommunications revenues
Pledged to open their markets
to fair competition
Financial Services
95% of financial services market
102 countries will open,
to varying degrees, their markets.
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Sovereignty an Issue?
Still protected
No change to rights or obligations w/o US
consent
No US laws changed by WTO
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