Transcript FISHERY FORUM FOR DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION ANNUAL …

"Why is aquaculture developing so
successfully in Asia whereas it appears to
be lagging in Africa?
Are there new prospects?"
Prof. James Muir, University of Stirling, Scotland:
FISHERY FORUM FOR DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION
ANNUAL MEETING 2005
Clarion Hotel Admiral, C. Sundtsgt. 9, Bergen
31st March - 1st April 2005
An overview of performance
• Asian history, diversity and growth rate
• African equivalents ……
• Conclusion…
– dramatic changes in context
– consistent under-performance
– repeated diagnoses
– significant investment
– little evidence of private sector uptake
– highly sectoral perspectives?
A common pattern in Asia
Main production in Bangladesh
400,000
Other main fish production in China
350,000
300,000
400000
Tonnes
250,000
350000
200,000
150,000
300000
100,000
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
0
1984
50,000
200000
Years
150000
Freshw ater fishes nei
Penaeus shrimps nei
100000
50000
Main species production in Thailand
0
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
300,000
Years
Japanese eel
Nile tilapia
250,000
White amur bream
Main production in India
Tonnes
200,000
150,000
100,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
50,000
1,000,000
0
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
800,000
Years
600,000
Green mussel
Nile tilapia
Torpedo-shaped catfishes
Giant tiger praw n
400,000
200,000
Main production in South Africa
0
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Years
4000
Catla
Mrigal carp
Roho labeo
3500
3000
2500
An optimistic one in
Africa?
Tonnes
Tonnes
Tonnes
250000
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Years
Rainbow trout
Mediterranean mussel
Pacific cupped oyster
Star performances
• Exceptions, outliers – or indicators?
• in Asia;
– China
– Bangladesh
– Vietnam
• in Africa?
– Egypt,
– Malawi? smaller-scale change
– Cameroon - embryonic
Resources and potential
• FAO (Kapetsky, Manjarrez etc) African GIS –
range of national surveys
• Comparison of land and water resources and
key inputs – comparative loadings
• Potential aquaculture cf population
• Strategy studies – eg IFC overviews on global
areas of potential
• Physical resources not usually the issue…
• But future implications, changing tradable values
for environmental goods?
Resource load examples
System/location
Loading per
water exchange,
t/km3
Global
Regional Asia
196
577
National
China
Thailand
India
Vietnam
Iran
Rep of Korea
1777
1007
730
391
361
317
Production, t km-1
Country
Taiwan
Japan
Philippines
Singapore
China
Thailand
Bangladesh
Vietnam
Rep Korea
Fish
Crustacea
Molluscs
22.0
19.3
7.7
4.1
4.1
11.8
39
33
3.5
15.5
55.9
36.2
10.2
110
21
140
Source: Csavas, 1994
Table 3.12 Nutrient loadings per coastline length
Location
Regional
Asia
Europe
S America
N America
National
Rep of Korea
China
Thailand
Netherlands
France
Norway
Italy
Production loads,
tkm-1
N, kg km-1
P, kg km-1
35.3
12.2
6.8
220
210
160
30
50
50
35
7
324
128
65
111.5
65.2
20.8
19.2
39.4
415.4
1399.5
n/a
44.1
1396.0
63.5
8.9
86.1
288.1
n/a
10.3
325.6
14.8
Faulty prescriptions?
• Thematic evaluation of aquaculture
– Post-Kyoto 1976
– 1989, >$160m investment
– Public sector/major infrastructure
• My pond has no fish 1994
– Luapula province, Zambia
– Anthropological and farming systems
– Perspectives on adoption and development
• Global trading projects
– Shrimp farming hopes… 1980s and 90s
– Catfish and tilapia
• More recent investments
– FAO/LBDA Kenya
– DFID Uganda
Better approaches?
• Defined by….
–
–
–
–
Output and profitability?
Resource use/impact
Equity – international/national
Confidence, replicability?
• Private Sector
– CDC/Lake Harvest
– Egyptian sectoral groupings
• Institutional sector
– Worldfish Malawi
– DFID/WF Cameroon
– Small-scale tilapia, cages?
• Overview on markets
Targeted strategies for development?
Parameter
Policy environment
- R&D context
- environmental
- investment
- social
Production context
- total output
- species produced
- number of farms
Present state
(example)
disorganised, weak
unregulated/negative
uncertain, negative
negative/threatened
(example)
20,000t
5
300
Minimum condition
Desired state
Optimum condition
aware, better funded
regulated, functional
clear, definable
aware, progressive
focused,well funded
protective, supporting
positive, supportive
supportive, positive
highly organised
highly managed
strongly supportive
strongly supportive
20,000t
5
300
40,000t
8
500
80,000t
16
800
and further detail ....
Parameter
System factors
- onshore
- inshore
- offshore
Seed supply
- origins
- brood maturation
- manipulation
Larval rearing
- husbandry
- feeding
- survival
Ongrowing
- systems
- feeding
- disease
- control
Product
- availability
- product forms
- quality control
Market response
- awareness
- management
Present state
(example)
non-existent
smallscale inefficient
non-existent
(example)
wild caught only
caught in wild
untested
(example)
unknown
basic biology
0%
(example)
traditional
ad hoc, trash fish
unknown
minimal
(example)
poor, irregular
traditional, unsized
non-existent
Minimum condition
Desired state
Optimum condition
Trialled, understood
Rationalised, viable
Trialled, understood
viable, invested
expanded, developing
viable, invested
profitable, expanding
significant productive
profitable, expanding
5% hatched seed
in culture systems
basic principles
90%+ hatched seed
readily available
normally possible
all hatched seed
fully managed
highly controlled
Basic principles
Positive trials
20%
routinely known
controlled, effective
70%+
highly efficient
high performance
90%+
Design analysis
Basic pellet diet
Basic understanding
Principles understood
efficient systems
efficient pellet diet
adequate control
routine husbandry
performance optimal
high performance diet
negligible impact
highly tuned
Basic supply
Basic standard form
Principles understood
regular supply
range of forms
regularly applied
widely available
highly flexible
highly specified
limited/traditional
not present
Aquaculture known
Basic structure
quality understood
routine application
widely appreciated
targeted, proactive
National strategies – example of Uganda
The approach taken is:
• Firstly consider features of current and emerging demand for aquaculture
products, both domestically and internationally, and the possibilities this
would hold out for volume, quality (size, species, product form) and price.
• Use this to consider supply options, and the ways in which these could be
developed over a defined timescale. A simple spreadsheet-based structural
model has been developed to describe these.
• Then assemble a perspective on the composite elements of the sector as a
whole, the extent of its diversification, the upstream and downstream
linkages, and the physical and institutional infrastructure required.
• From this also can be set out the key directions to be taken from the
present stage of development of the sector, particularly as promoted and
supported by projects and related initiatives.
• Hence a development framework…..
National demand
•
•
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•
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Cost structures of capture fisheries and aquaculture supply are very different, and
although with similar species and products, normally occupy separate market positions,
with very different consumer expectations and price ranges.
With the change in balance between capture and culture, and shifts in distribution and
markets, longer-term trends may see a greater level of interconnection and cross-over.
Uganda’s markets - interactions between domestic, regional and international demand.
First two are closely linked in supplies, prices and distribution chains, while international
markets are largely separate. Due to future interactions in exporting a wider range of
product, and developing aquaculture feeds from lower-value fish, this may change.
Perspective for medium-term demands is that with export levels of 60,000t, domestic
consumption levels of 10kg/cap/yr, a predicted population of 32 million by 2015, a total
of 380,000t of food fish will be required, compared with an estimated catch of
220,000t, and an estimated potential capture fisheries output of 300,000t. Should a
substantial fishmeal demand develop, this may easily account for a further 20-50,000t.
These figures suggest a substantial shortfall, which may however be overstated due to
potentially large amounts of unrecorded catch and consumption, though regional
exports may also be over-reported. Much shortfall, particularly if a fish meal/oil sector
develops, may be in lowest price ranges.
Apart from the export sector there is very little value-chain information available for the
sector – ie what are the distribution structures, who is involved, where is the market
power, what is the value added at each stage, and what are the investments and
returns. This makes it difficult to define not just the current structures and values, but
also the inherent dynamics and the potential impacts of change.
Potential consumption profiles for aquaculture
Population
sector
Number
Fish
consumption
Local
sourced
%
aqua
culture
Total
aqua
demand,
t
Avge
price$/kg
Total
value,
‘000
Wealthy
10,000
20kg
30%
20%
12
2.00
24
Middle class
200,000
20kg
80%
30%
960
1.00
960
Upper poor
10,000,000
12kg
100%
10%
12,000
0.70
8,400
Lower poor
16,000,000
8kg
100%
5%
6,400
0.50
3,200
Total
26,210,000
19,372
12,584
$
Potential production sectors – small scale
Enterprise type
Features
Size
Production/sale
Employment
Annual
returns
Small-scale
hatchery/nursery
enterprise
Small farmer with higher skills
and motivation, poss-ible
extension role producing tilapia
and possibly catfish in small
ponds/ hapas, serving smallscale producers in local area.
Based on 1-4
small ponds
and/ or hapas
for broodstock ,
fry and/or
nursing
Typically 10 to
200,000 fry or 550,000 fingerlings,
using simple techniques, local feeds,
etc
Farmer / direct
family members –
may link with
local fry traders
over time
$50 - $500
depending on
species sold –
may take share
in production
Commercial
hatchery
More enterprise-oriented
farmer or small business
partnership supplying local
farners and/or public sector
stocking programmes and
commercial ongrowers, wider
supply range and better
distribution methods
Will vary widely;
based on ponds
or cages for
broodstock,
tanks, ponds,
hapas for fry/
fingerling.
Typically 1-20
million fry or 20-20500,00 finger-lings;
possibly with
selection, all-male
production, market
delivery to agents/
customers
Farmer/manager
and 1-10 staff,
range of skills,
plus transport/
distribution jobs.
$500-$50,000
depending on
scale, special
isation, may
link with
ongrowing at a
range of levels
Micro-scale
subsistence
production
(normally ponds
but small cages
also possible)
Current small pond sector
based on single households,
some community or group
ponds; low-input and low
output, household consumption, tilapia, catfish, carp, small
sales to local markets
Typically single
ponds of 50300m2 (cages
1-3m3)
5-15kg per 100m2,
or 2.5-45kg per
pond, some may be
exchanged in
community
Farmer/ direct
family members minimal use
surplus or uncosted labour ;
some shared
group labour
Negligible; perhaps $50 max;
food security,
social capital
more important
Small-scale local
market pond
production
Developed from current small
pond sector or as new enterprise; improved tilapia/ optional
catfish polyculture better
fertilisers and possible simple
feeds; farmer, family or cooperative, occasional external
labour, may produce own
fry/fingerlings
Typically based
on 2-12 small
ponds of 1501000m2
Improved outputs
20-40kg/ 100m2 –
100-4000 kg per
farm; small amount
locally consumed,
rest to markets, may
be purchased at
pond side
Farmer/manager
small numbers of
f/t and p/t staff
$50-$2000
depending on
size, species
mix; higher
input costs –
net return
perhaps 2040% of
turnover.
Commercial ongrowing
Enterprise type
Features
Size
Production/sale
Employment
Annual returns
Small –scale
commercial cage
New enterprise, with individ-ual
or group ownership, developed
to make use of water bodies,
tilapia, catfish, possible other
such as Nile Perch, fed with
wastes and/or prepared feeds
With perhaps 46 simple cages
of 20-300m3 at
15-40 kg/m3/yr
Range from 1-60t/
farm annually, to
local markets and/
or linked to larger
commercial groups
and/or processors
Farmer/manager
small numbers of
f/t and p/t staff
$500-90,000
depending on
size, species
mix; higher input
costs – net
return ~ 15-40%
turnover.
Large
commercial
Indigenous larger enterprise
using cages, possibly vertic-ally
integrated, with local fry supply,
feeds, processing; prepared
feeds and improved strains of
tilapia, catfish, possibly Nile
perch
6-12 larger
cages of 3001000m3 at 2045 kg/m3/yr
From 40-500t/farm
annually; to higher
value regional and
main export
markets
Manager and
teams of f/t and
p/t staff; other
inputs in linked
enterprises
$20-750,000
depending on
size, species
mix; higher input
costs – net
return ~ 10-25%
turnover.
Nucleus system
As above, indigenous or
externally owned, but based on
management centre, possibly
with hatchery, feeds,
processing, and range of
smaller scale cage and pond
producers in variety of
contractual relationships.
Equivalent of
large
commercial unit
as above, or
larger, more
diverse
Typically 300-2000t
annually, to higher
value regional and
main export
markets
Manager and
teams of f/t and
p/t staff; may be
some specialists
other inputs in
linked
enterprises
$150,000 to $3m
annually,
depending as
above – net
return ~ 8-20%
turnover.
Major
commercial
Externally owned or joint
venture, probably vertically
integrated, with local fry supply,
feeds, processing; prepared
feeds and improved strains of
tilapia, catfish, possibly Nile
perch
12-40 large
cages of 10003000 m3 at 3045 kg/m3/yr,
plus fry and
nursery units
Typically 360-4000t
annually, to higher
value regional and
main export
markets
Manager and
teams of f/t and
p/t staff; may be
some specialists
other inputs in
linked
enterprises
$200,000 to $6m
annually,
depending as
above – net
return ~ 5-15%
turnover.
Sample subsector targets
Small-scale subsistence
Gross Value
ponds
2004 levels
Avge
size
m2
Yield kg
/100m2
t/h
a
kg/unit
Are
a
ha
1.5
30
160
Output
tonnes
200
15
5
3
3
5
10210
232
17
1.7
39
237
403
0.64
257.9
10
13030
269
20
2
54
351
702
0.81
568.6
20
21230
361
27
2.7
97
766
2068
1.33
2750.4
18000
300
25
2.5
75
540
1350
1.6
2160
Target period, yrs
(modified 20yr target)
0.5
'000 $
8000
Expected growth of
factor
240
$/kg
120
5
Further tools…..
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•
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National shifts and demand/product features
Local/community contexts
Sectoral profiles – supply curves
Supply and value chain concepts, livelihood links
Factor productivity, characteristics of higher performersskill values
• Marginal and multiplier effects
• Structural models, possible ppps?
• Cluster concepts – information flow
(Some) upcoming initiatives….
• WFC/DFID Kampala – market overviews
• Egyptian national development workshops through 2005
• NEPAD/Fish for All – Egypt workshop May 2005, Abuja
August 2005
• Commercialisation issues – follow from FAO meeting
Uganda – also traceability/other trade issues
• USAID programme Uganda- based on private enterprise
• Programmes in Malawi, Mozambique,
• Further analyses, updates – perspectives
Ideas feeding into NEPAD…
•
•
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•
•
Structural
Thematic
Investment and goals
MDGs
Cross-sectoral
PRSPs
Current trends
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Artisanal and commercial sectors
Domestic and export production
Investment stimulus
Market demand
Growth and competition,
Bypass of public sector dependence
Identification of robust and equitable
alternatives
Policy development and implementation
•
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•
Support environment
Investment
Resource access
Capacity building
Trading, quality
Partnerships
Indicators of achievement
Institutional change
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Initial buildup, public sector investment
Decentralised/devolved approaches
Community – co-management
Integrated service delivery
Public-private sector partnerships
Knowledge, ICT, empowerment
Value chain perspectives
Redefinition, governance, political process