ICSU Foresight Analysis

http://www.icsu.org/

Orienting International Science Cooperation to meet Global Challenges

What is the International Council for Science?

• • • Non-governmental organisation Global membership of: • • national scientific bodies International Scientific Unions Purpose: to strengthen international global science for the benefit of society

What does ICSU do?

• • • Co-ordinates international, interdisciplinary research programmes that address global issues Works at the intersection of science and policy Universality of Science - opposes any discrimination of scientists

Why a Foresight Process?

• • • To explore how international science* might develop over the next two decades To test the role and mission of ICSU and guide its long-term strategic choices To demonstrate how ICSU Members could develop their own strategic activities

*Science comprises all domains - natural, social, human, medical and engineering

What is the present landscape for international science?

• • • • • • • Variety of actors Science is increasingly global Scientific world is increasingly connected A multipolar science world is developing The role of business in science in growing The primary driver of most collaboration is still the scientists Many global research programmes lack co-ordination

Scoping the design – choices and trade-offs

• • • • • • • • • • Purpose – priority-setting / organisational agility Scope – future of international science / future of ICSU Target – ICSU / member organisations Orientation – exploratory / normative Resources – marginal / dedicated Activities – embedded / dedicated Participation – depth / breadth Time Horizon – unfolding of grand challenges / ICSU Strategic Plan Management and Conduct – internal / external Duration – short / long

Three phases

• • • Phase 1 (October 2009 to April 2010): Gather perspectives on the key drivers influencing international science in the next 20 years – from individuals in ICSU’s membership, bodies, partners and other stakeholders, including young scientists, as well as from the literature.

Phase 2 (April 2010 to March 2011): Build exploratory scenarios from the key drivers and conduct a broad consultation with the same range of parties identified for the previous phase.

Phase 3 (March 2011 to February 2012): Use the key drivers and exploratory scenarios to develop and validate a visionary ‘success scenario` of where ICSU should be going. In the process, conduct a broad consultation, in particular utilizing the ICSU General Assembly in October 2011as a forum for Member opinions – including views on regional differences – on the success scenario and its implications for ICSU.

What are the drivers that will influence the future international science landscape?

• • Two types of drivers were identified: Those which are more or less clear in how they will evolve in the next 20 years: Megatrends Those which are unclear: Key Drivers

What are the Megatrends?

• • • • • Demography Natural resource availability Global environmental change Human health and well being Technological change

What are the Key Drivers?

• • • • • • • • • • • • Global science agendas and arenas State sovereignty, regionalism and globalism Science and Society Epistemic organisation of science Values, beliefs, ethics Scientific integrity and self regulation Spatial organisation Private sector/military science States and markets International collaborative research infrastructures Nature of the scientific record Science education and careers

The Triumph of Globalism “ The Triumph of Globalism“ Science Supplying National Needs “ Science Supplying National Needs“

GLOBAL interests of states

Ivory Towers in a Globalised World Scenario 3: Global and Detached from society

NATIONAL

Rise of Aggressive Nationalism Scenario 4: National and Detached from society

The Triumph of Globalism Scenario 1: Global and Engaged with society In the face of environmental challenges, leading nations have decided to balance their interests Global governance has been embraced Interdisciplinary emphasis at the expense of disciplinary Science is used to lead the way to a sustainable future Globally co-ordinated strategic research is taking place Greater mobility of scientists Increased external regulation of science Less curiosity driven research opportunities

‘Science Supplying National Needs’

National and Engaged with society

After a series of major global economic crisis, nations have adopted more protectionist policies with a focus on local sustainability Science harnessed to serve national needs Local solutions to local problems e.g. health, food security, energy Govt. policy regulates organisation of science but increases funding Less curiosity driven science opportunities Exploitation of traditional knowledge

Ivory Towers in a Globalised World Scenario 3: Global and Detached from society The global free market economy reigns and intense levels of interaction occur between economic agents across borders New multinational companies drive globalisation Science gained independence through new breakthroughs Science informs policy but decisions not based on science Countries have increasingly specialised in supplying certain products to global markets so becoming more dependent on the global system Science detached from society so public trust declines

‘Rise of Aggressive Nationalism’ Scenario 4: National and Detached In an uncertain geopolitical environment barriers between countries have been raised and nations aggressively look after their own interests On-going power struggle for global leadership and resources Greatest potential for harmful use of knowledge Investment in science is for national economic advantage or prestige Governments looking to their scientists for exciting advantages in scientific knowledge and technology – especially military Decline in researcher mobility Curiosity-driven discipline based research in national institutes of excellence Less developed countries are isolated from scientific endeavours

The Success Scenario

• • • • • • Global science addressing significant issues International cooperation in science is focussed Emerging science nations playing an important role ‘Brain circulation’ replacing ‘brain drain’ Wider set of actors and new networks More funding and funders for global research

The Success Scenario

• • • • • Science organisations better coordinated Public trust comes with integrity Effective communication and involvement of public integral part of the research process Data sharing is seen as very important Interdisciplinary, global research is an important complement to national and regional research programmes