Transcript WORLD EXPORT COMMITMENTS

World Cotton Market:
Trends in Supply and Use
The Multilateral
Trading System: a
U.S.-Africa
Dialogue on
Cotton
July 20, 2009
World Cotton
Million tons
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
50/51
Production
65/66
Mill Use
80/81
95/96
WORLD COTTON YIELDS
Kilograms per Hectare
800
780
700
580
600
500
400
80/81
86/87
92/93
98/99
04/05
World Cotton
Million tons
28
Production
26
2
1
Mill Use
23
3
21
18
99/00
01/02
03/04
05/06
07/08
09/10
Production
Million tons
8
07/08
08/09
09/10
6
4
2
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Three Crises Affecting the
World Cotton Market
1. Global Commodity Price Crisis
2. Cotton Futures Market Crisis
3. Global Financial and Economic Crisis
Crude Oil Prices
August 2006 = 100
200
150
100
50
Oct-06
August 2006 = 100
Oct-07
Oct-08
Fertilizer Prices
800
600
400
200
0
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Commodity Prices
Price index: August 2006 = 100
360
Rice
Soybean
300
Corn
240
Wheat
Sugar
Cotton
180
120
60
Aug 06
Aug 07
Aug 08
Commodity Futures Prices
and A Index
US cents/lb
100
A Index
80
Nearby Cotton Futures
60
40
Jan-06
Sep-06 May-07
Jan-08
Oct-08
World Cotton Mill Use
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
99/00
01/02
03/04
05/06
07/08
09/10
Growth in World GDP
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Major Challenges
1.
2.
3.
4.
Financial Stress
Sustainability
Demand Enhancement
Distortions
Average Cotton Revenue
2008 $ per Hectare
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1950
1965
1980
1995
Season-Average Cotlook A Index
US cents/lb
95
80
73
65
61
56
50
35
78/79
84/85
90/91
96/97
02/03
08/09
PESTICIDE USE ON COTTON
Percent of World Pesticide Sales
14
11
8
5
1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
Cotton’s Share of World Textile
Fiber Use
Percent
70
60
50
40
30
1965
35.8
1975
1985
1995
2005
DIRECT ASSISTANCE TO
PRODUCTION: WORLD
Billion $
8
6
4
2
0
97/98
00/01
03/04
06/07
DIRECT GOVERNMENT
ASSISTANCE TO COTTON
$/Lb.
3
2
07/08
08/09
1
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DIRECT GOVERNMENT
ASSISTANCE TO COTTON
$ Billions
3
07/08
08/09
2
1
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World Cotton
Million tons
28
Production
Mill Use
23
18
99/00
04/05
09/10
14/15
19/20