Transcript Add Report Title Here (Initial Caps, Arial, 28pt)

SPEC Barometer Results
QUARTER 3
OCTOBER 2009
• Prepared by: Synovate Kenya
• Date: 17th Oct 2009
© 2008. Synovate Ltd. All rights reserved.
The concepts and ideas submitted to you herein are the intellectual property of
Synovate Ltd. They are strictly of confidential nature and are submitted to you under
the understanding that they are to be considered by you in the strictest of confidence
and that no use shall be made of the said concepts and ideas, including
communication to any third party without Synovate’s express prior consent and/or
payment of related professional services fees in full.
Survey background
The Social, Political, Economic and Cultural Barometer (SPEC) is conducted every
three months by the Steadman Group (Now Synovate). The main objective of this
particular survey is to assess the general public opinion on several political and
social issues.
The survey assessed the following issues:
Government performance
Public Trust in various public institutions and personalities
Performance of the various public personalities
Evaluation of the power-sharing agreement
Political party alignment and several correlations of same
The Marriage Bill
© Synovate 2008
1
Poll Methodology
Dates of polling
Sample Size
Sampling methodology
October 5th – October 13th
2,005 respondents
Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS
Universe
Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban
and Rural areas
Data collection
methodology
Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the
household level
Sampling error
© Synovate 2008
+/-2.2 with a 95% confidence level
2
Victims of Crime
© Synovate 2008
3
“Have you personally been subjected to any form of
criminal incident within the past 3 months?” Total
No, 92%
Yes, 8%
Base: n= 20000 (All Respondents)
© Synovate 2008
4
“Have you personally been subjected to any form of
criminal incident within the past 3 months?” Time
Series
50%
40%
30%
20%
18%
17%
10%
10%
11%
8%
0%
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Base: n= 2000 (All Respondents)
© Synovate 2008
5
(If yes) “How many times?”
Twice, 24%
Once, 57%
Thrice, 7%
Four
times, 5%
Five times, 3%
Base: Those who are subjected to criminal incident
© Synovate 2008
6
“Have you personally been subjected to any form of
criminal incident within the past 3 months?” Total –
What type of crime?
Pick pocketing, 4%
Car jacked, 6%
Stolen through
Mpesa, 1%
Conned, 1%
RTA, 6%
Burglary, 36%
Mugged, 50%
© Synovate 2008
7
Government Service/Sector Area
Performance Ratings
© Synovate 2008
8
“How satisfied are you with the way the Government is
dealing with the issues facing our country?”
% Saying Very dissatisfied
Food prices
80%
Corruption in public sector
66%
Poverty
66%
Unemployment
60%
Crime
49%
Water supply
40%
Climatic change
37%
Environment problems
32%
Electricity supply
30%
Road network
28%
Health services
21%
Access to secondary education
16%
Access to primary education
12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Base: All Respondents
© Synovate 2008
9
Trust and Approval Ratings of
Top Leaders and Institutions
© Synovate 2008
10
“How much trust you have in each of the following people
or institutions?” % ‘saying a lot of trust’
% saying Highly approve
The Media
57%
Speaker
35%
Parliament
17%
Prime Minister
15%
Local MP
14%
The Interim Electoral Commission of Kenya
13%
ODM
13%
Finance Minister
10%
Vice President
9%
President
8%
PNU
6%
Government
6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Base n=2000 (All Respondents)
© Synovate 2008
11
“To what extent do you approve of the overall
performance of…?”
100%
% saying a highly
disapprove
80%
60%
38%
40%
36%
33%
23%
20%
0%
Government
President
Vice President
Prime Minister
Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)
© Synovate 2008
12
Attitudes Towards:
the Power-Sharing Agreement
© Synovate 2008
13
Support For the Power-Sharing Agreement Between
President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga. By Total
Oppose a little bit, 7%
Support a little bit, 29%
Neither support nor
oppose, 14%
Support strongly, 20%
Oppose strongly, 28%
Base: All Respondents
© Synovate 2008
14
Support For the Power-Sharing Agreement Between
President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga: Time
Series
% “Saying Support strongly/Support A little bit”
100%
77%
80%
69%
61%
60%
49%
40%
44%
33%
20%
0%
Jul-08
Base: All Respondents
© Synovate 2008
Oct-08
Dec-08
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
15
Political Party Alignment
© Synovate 2008
16
“Which political party do you feel closest to, if any?”
None, 21%
Ford Kenya, 1%
ODM, 44%
KANU, 2%
NARC, 2%
NARC Kenya, 2%
ODM Kenya, 10%
PNU, 18%
Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)
© Synovate 2008
17
“Which political party do you feel closest to, if any?”:
Time series
100%
ODM
PNU
ODM - Kenya
None
Narc - Kenya
80%
60%
53%
50%
47%
40%
36%
31%
29%
22%
20%
7%
1%
0%
Jul-08
44%
10%
3%
2%
Oct-08
21%
16%
4%
2%
Dec-08
10%
11%
9%
Apr-09
35%
21%
18%
13%
4%
3%
Jul-09
10%
2%
Oct-09
Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)
© Synovate 2008
18
Political Party Alignment Correlations
© Synovate 2008
19
Support For the Power-Sharing Agreement Between
President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga: by
Total, Political party affiliations
% “Saying Support strongly/Support A little bit”
100%
80%
60%
54%
52%
49%
40%
35%
20%
0%
Total
ODM and Affliates
PNU and Affliates
None
Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)
© Synovate 2008
20
Support For the Power-Sharing Agreement Between
President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga: by Political
Party Alignment
Total
ODM and Affliates
PNU and Affliates
None
100%
80%
60%
37%
40%
20%
20%
20%
28%
24%
25%
23%
13%
0%
Support strongly
Oppose strongly
Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)
© Synovate 2008
21
“What do you think should be done to bring permanent
peace in the country?”: by Political Party Alignment
Total
100%
ODM and Affliates
PNU and Affliates
None
80%
60%
40%
38% 35%
29% 31% 26% 29%
42% 40%
13% 12% 15% 12%
20%
10% 11% 9%
9%
0%
Through Peace &
Reconciliation
Prosecuting the
perpetrators
Take them to the Hague
Forgive them
Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)
© Synovate 2008
22
“To what extent do you approve the overall performance
of The President?” by Political Party Alignment.
TOTAL
ODM and Affliates
PNU and Affliates
None
100%
80%
60%
36%
40%
44%
41%
23%
20%
8%
15%
6%
5%
0%
Highly approve
Highly disapprove
Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)
© Synovate 2008
23
“To what extent do you approve the overall performance
of The Prime Minister?” by Political Party Alignment.
TOTAL
ODM and Affliates
PNU and Affliates
None
100%
80%
60%
36%
40%
20%
15%
24%
23%
22%
11%
15%
6%
0%
Highly approve
Highly disapprove
Base: All Respondents
© Synovate 2008
24
“To what extent do you approve the overall performance
of The Vice President?” by Political Party Alignment.
TOTAL
ODM and Affliates
PNU and Affliates
None
100%
80%
60%
42%
41%
40%
33%
20%
17%
15%
9%
6%
7%
0%
Highly approve
Highly disapprove
Base: All Respondents
© Synovate 2008
25
Preferred (Possible) Presidential Candidate
in Next Election
© Synovate 2008
26
“If an election for president was held now, who would
you vote for, if that person were a candidate?” by PPA
Total
ODM and Affliates
PNU and Affliates
None
100%
80%
62%
60%
40%
32%
31%
20%
14%
5% 7%
2%
18%
14%
10% 10%
2%
8%
14%
10%
2%
14%
7%
1% 4%
13%
5%
1%
2%
0%
Raila Odinga
Kalonzo
Musyoka
Uhuru Kenyatta Martha Karua
William Ruto
Mwai Kibaki
Base: All Respondents
© Synovate 2008
27
“If an election for president was held now, who would
you vote for, if that person was a candidate?” – Time
Series
100%
April-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
80%
60%
40%
33%
31%
28%
20%
19%
23%
14%
14%
14% 16%
8%10%
8%8%
7%
4%
3%4%
0%
Raila
Ruto
Uhuru
Kalonzo
Martha
Karua
1%1%0% 1%1%2%
10%
6%6%5%
3%5%
Saitoti Mudavadi Kibaki
Others
13%
None
Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)
© Synovate 2008
28
What recent action was taken by US government
against impunity in Kenya? By Total
Correct answer,
56%
Wrong answer,
44%
© Synovate 2008
29
“Do you approve or disapprove the act of the US
government?”
Approve, 75%
Dissaprove,
21%
Don't know, 3%
Base: Those aware of the action taken by the
US Government.
© Synovate 2008
30
Poll Methodology
The target population for this survey was all Kenyan adults aged 18 and above (voting age). A sample size of
2,005 respondents was drawn to achieve a 35:65 urban to rural ratio. The maximum margin of error
attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.2 % margin at 95%
confidence level. At the same time this sample size is large enough to administer strict quality control
measures in order to manage any occurrence of non-random errors. The fieldwork for this survey was
conducted between 5th and 13th October.
To achieve this sample a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS)
was used. This ensures that districts with a higher population size had a proportionately higher sample size
allocation. This survey was conducted in 53 administrative and geographical districts in Kenya (Nairobi,
Nyandarua, Kiambu, Maragua, Muranga, Nyeri, Kilifi, Kwale, Mombasa, Malindi,Taita Taveta, Embu, Mbeere,
Meru Central, Meru North, Nithi, Kitui, Machakos, Makueni, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Bondo, Homa Bay,
Kisumu, Migori, Rachuonyo, Siaya, Kisii North – Nyamira, Kisii Central, Kisii South-Gucha, Barigo, Bomet,
Buret, Kajiado, Kericho, Laikipia, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, West Pokot, Kirinyaga, Turkana, Trans Nzoia, Uasin
Gishu, Marakwet, Butere-Mumias, Bugoma, Kakamega, Lugari, Vihiga,Teso).
The interviews were done at household level. Household interviews were preferred because they allow for
pure random sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for quality control.
© Synovate 2008
31
Poll Methodology (Cont…)
These face-to-face in-home interviews are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as
respondents have more time to respond to questions as compared to street interviews.
The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random
starting point was selected within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4
households until the sample size for that cluster in the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was
then selected from each qualifying household through a household member randomization technique known
as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member selection. In
cases where the eligible respondent was not available for interviewing, the field interviewers made at least 3
callbacks. If after the third callback the required respondent was still not available for the interview, the field
interviewer substituted that household for another.
The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended
questions. The poll questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided,
including no opinion. This ensures that there is no bias at all with the way the questions are asked.
Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork Supervisors made a minimum
of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls, while the field
managers made 2% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing
© Synovate 2008
32
About Steadman
Steadman Group is Africa’s leading market information group with over 400 permanent
employees and with access to more than 5000 trained field staff in different markets in
Sub-Saharan Africa. The Group is composed of three divisions which offer media
monitoring services, market research and management training. Steadman also runs
the Steadman Centre For Applied Research Training.
The Steadman Group socio research unit carries out all the fieldwork logistics, data
processing and reporting tasks of this survey. This unit has vast experience in
conducting opinion polls since 2002. The Group is a full member of Gallup
International Association and its exclusive affiliate in Kenya. Additionally, the Group is
also a member of World Association for Public Opinion Research [WAPOR] and the
association of market research professionals (ESOMAR). Steadman therefore strictly
adheres to the international code of ethics and practices regarding opinion polling as
stipulated by GALLUP INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION/ESOMAR/WAPOR
guidelines. Steadman is also ISO 9001:2000 accredited.
© Synovate 2008
33
Thank You For Your
Attention.
Our Curiosity Is All Yours.
© 2008. Synovate Ltd. All rights reserved.
The concepts and ideas submitted to you herein are the intellectual property of
Synovate Ltd. They are strictly of confidential nature and are submitted to you under
the understanding that they are to be considered by you in the strictest of confidence
and that no use shall be made of the said concepts and ideas, including
communication to any third party without Synovate’s express prior consent and/or
payment of related professional services fees in full.
© Synovate 2008