Transcript No Slide Title

STARMAP
YEAR 4
N. Scott Urquhart
STARMAP Director
Department of Statistics
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523-1877
DAMARS/STARMAP 9/8/05
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STARMAP FUNDING
Space-Time Aquatic Resources
Modeling and Analysis Program
The work reported here today and tomorrow was
developed under the STAR Research Assistance
Agreement CR-829095 awarded by the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to
Colorado State University. These presentations
have not been formally reviewed by EPA. The
views expressed here are solely those of
presenters and STARMAP, the Program they
represent. EPA does not endorse any products
or commercial services mentioned in these
presentations.
This research is funded by
DAMARS/STARMAP 9/8/05
U.S.EPA – Science To Achieve
Results (STAR) Program
Cooperative
# CR - 829095
Agreement
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TODAY’S
COMMENTS ABOUT STARMAP
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Background Comments
Research
Outputs
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Extension/Outreach/Cooperation
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Publications/presentations
Training – future generations of environmental statisticians
Meetings
Learning Materials
Recruiting
Plans for the year ahead
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Research
Meetings
Data
DAMARS/STARMAP 9/8/05
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PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR:
STARMAP RESEARCH - A FOCUS
 EPA released
the report,
Response of Surface Water Chemistry to the Clean
Air Act Amendments of 1990 (EPA/620/R-02/004)
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Was submitted to Congress in January, 2003
Statistical techniques available for it were
severely limited in several dimensions
Good illustration of tools we need to develop
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Used as presentation illustration
STARMAP investigators are using
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The context for model assumptions
Data on which this report was based
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PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR:
STARMAP RESEARCH – Project 1
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Combining/analyzing environmental data
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Bayesian Methods
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Extension of contingency table methods for aquatic data
 Devin Johnson and Jennifer Hoeting; papers submitted and in progress
Habitat selection models to account for seasonal persistence in radio telemetry data.
 Megan Dailey and Alix Gitelman: Paper to appear in EES; several talks; Dailey
won runner-up for best student presentation at WNAR
Book on Computational Statistics by Givens and Hoeting; short courses
Spatial statistics
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Selection and estimation for spatial models (see talk by Hoeting)
 Andrew Merton, PhD student: theoretical and applied aspects of model selection for
spatial models (Hoeting and Davis, advisors)
 Devin Johnson, reversible jump MCMC for spatial model selection (papers & talks)
 Kathi Georgitis, PhD student: estimation for spatial models, (working with
Gitelman and Hoeting)
 Megan Dailey (PhD student) and Julia Smith (MS student): models and methods for
EPA EMAP data from WA and OR. (Hoeting, advisor)
Designing to estimate semivariograms – Kerry Ritter & Molly Leecaster
How much spatial correlation in aquatic responses? – See poster by Josh French
DAMARS/STARMAP 9/8/05
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PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR:
STARMAP RESEARCH – Project 2
 Local
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Jointly funded by STARMAP and DAMARS
Methods to improve survey summaries using
auxiliary information
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Estimation/Survey Methods
From design-based to model-based
Major collaboration with Jean Opsomer, Iowa State U
 Giovanna Ranalli = post doc, completed, back in Italy, but here
 Progress on procedures for smoothing data from estuaries
» Cooperative with AED and New Hampshire DES
Two cooperating fellows from Taiwan
 Nan-Jung Hsu and Hsin-Cheng Huang
Jay Breidt will expand on this during his talk
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DAMARS/STARMAP 9/8/05
Mark Delorey and Bill Coar will give talks on their parts.
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PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR:
STARMAP RESEARCH – Project 3
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Indicator Development
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GIS work & support is funded here
 GIS tools relevant to statistical analysis of aquatic systems
have been tested, used, and are web-available: FLoWS
SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS in GRTS-type sampling
 Manuscript submitted; ESRI is interested in including this in
version 9.3
Substantial cooperation with the Oregon Plan and Western
Ecology Division
Erin Peterson, completed her PhD and left for a post-doctoral
position in aquatic modeling in Queensland, Australia
 Andrew Merton will give a closely related talk
 Cooperation: Landscape Ecology & Stat & Maryland DNR
Dave Theobald (PI) commented further yesterday & here
DAMARS/STARMAP 9/8/05
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PROGRESS SINCE LAST YEAR:
STARMAP RESEARCH – Project 4
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Extension/Outreach
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Urquhart (PI)
I’ll return to this as next to the last major topic
 Only opportunity to talk about outreach here
DAMARS/STARMAP 9/8/05
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TRAINING - RESULTS
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Governing RAF states
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“… cadre of graduates would be developed who would
have the expertise and experience in survey design and
analysis needed to fill a gap in the expertise required to
successfully monitor the condition of the Nation’s
aquatic resources.”
Students & early career professionals
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Students
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Completed: 3 PhD + 6 Masters
Active: 6 PhD + 2 MS
Early-career professionals - 7
DAMARS/STARMAP 9/8/05
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OUTPUTS
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Relevant statistical research in the form of
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Reversed Randomized Quadrant-Recursive Raster
(RRQRR)
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Slight variant of GRTS implemented in ARCGIS
FLoWS software – see poster
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Publications – for statisticians & others
Worked examples in the “Case studies” part of the
learning materials
Very usable and relevant set of tools
Prediction of probability of perennialness of stream
traces
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Hope to be able to add to sampling procedure by end of Program
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OUTPUTS in YEAR 4
 PUBLICATIONS
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20 professional publications – in print or accepted
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Including a book
20 in various stages of submission and review
15+ manuscripts in various stages of development
Presentations
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51 completed
2 more by end of year 4 (Sept 30, 2005)
To a variety of audiences, domestic and international
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27 venues
 Statistically oriented - 14
 Other kinds of audiences - 13
DAMARS/STARMAP 9/8/05
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OUTPUTS in YEAR 4
continued
 STUDENT
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PhDs
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PROGRESS
One in geoscience completed; one completed in stat at ISU
Six others
 Three Stat in nearing completion (CSU)
 Two in mid-program (1@CSU), & (1@OSU)
 One Stat starting (CSU)
Masters
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One completed this year
 @ CSU
Two more in progress
DAMARS/STARMAP 9/8/05
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MEETINGS
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Graybill Conference (2004) – success
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Proceedings will be published in two issues of
Environmental and Ecological Statistics
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Professional meetings of statisticians:
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Friendly outlet for young environmental statisticians
Western North America Region – Biometric Society &
Institute of Mathematical Statistics - Fairbanks
Joint Statistical Meetings - Minneapolis
STARMAP personnel organized sessions and gave
presentations at both of these and other meetings
Investigators are already planning for next year’s
involvement
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MEETINGS - OUTREACH
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User communities
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National Park Service – Theobald and others; multiple times
ESRI (ArcGIS firm) Theobald
EPA: Eastern Ecology Division – Ranalli
EPA: Western Ecology Division – Stevens, Theobald and
Urquhart
EPA – Ecology Review – Urquhart
International – Stevens
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Australia
Pacific Basin Salmon
Oregon Project – Stevens & Theobald
Maryland Stream Symposium – Urquhart
Making statisticians aware of unique features of aquatic
systems
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Many contexts and all investigators – international to local
DAMARS/STARMAP 9/8/05
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RECRUITING
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Post-doctoral fellows
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Actively recruiting one right now
Director will continue to be active in recruiting
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Students for the CSU statistics graduate program
In high school advanced placement statistics
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We need undergraduate majors in relevant areas to recruit for
future graduate students
Urquhart visited AP classes in high schools last year
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LEARNING MATERIALS
 Jointly
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funded by STARMAP & DAMARS
Browser based (web access NOT needed)
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To be delivered via CD ROM
Substantial opportunities for individualization
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Perspective
 Senior administrator to
 Implementer to
 Researcher
Landscape setting
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have moved to implementation as pdf files
linked to video and sound
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CONTENT OF LEARNING MATERIALS
PROGRESS
Why Monitor? - Draft completed and tested
 Where to Monitor? Draft completed and tested
 What to monitor = Indicators
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Nothing started on this yet
How to Monitor? (= Field Operations)
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Major progress – Stacey Hancock gave a talk on this
yesterday – She has combined:
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EPA Field Operations Manuals
Training videotaped in May 2004
And PowerPoint presentations from training
Another student (MS) is working on a different level of
this
DAMARS/STARMAP 9/8/05
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CONTENT OF LEARNING MATERIALS
PROGRESS
(continued)
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…
How to summarize.
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Case studies
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Student has done some started on this
Several current efforts will be turned into these
Distribution of completed materials
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Preliminary discussions with the Council of State
Governments have been very encouraging.
DAMARS/STARMAP 9/8/05
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PLANS FOR THE YEAR AHEAD
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Project 1 - continue present work
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Project 2 – continue developments
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Emphasize small area (local) estimation
Expand work on uncertainty related to spatial LASSO
Project 3 - complete GRTS sampling in GIS
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Expand work on selection of spatial models
Modeling aquatic data from EMAP-type OR & WA
Explore wetlands data relative to plot size
Expand information and scope of FLoWS
Major cooperation with DAMARS on Oregon Plan analyses
Outreach – continue development of cooperation
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Case studies – nsu’s time from meetings & editorial things
Continue implementation & testing
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At any suitable venue
DAMARS/STARMAP 9/8/05
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ACCUMULATING AQUATIC
SPATIAL DATA
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How much spatial correlation really is present in aquatic
responses, after accounting for habitat features?
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Urquhart has been seeking data sets to look at this:
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Streams in Virginia – too few points to see much pattern
Ohio River – about 400 points – Josh French used for MS report
Estuaries – one in northeast = Great Bay, NH - Ranalli
Near coastal – San Diego Project – Ritter & Urquhart
Wetlands – Cooperative with Minnesota DNR – nsu
See Josh French’s poster related to this
 Includes bibliography
New data: San Diego near-shore; Maryland
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Need time to finish work on these; includes map accuracy
DAMARS/STARMAP 9/8/05
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