Transcript Slide 1

Climate change 2007,
Mitigation of climate change
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
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Main conclusion on mitigation of climate change
…There is substantial economic potential for the mitigation
of global GHG emissions over the coming decades,
that could offset the projected growth of global emissions
or reduce emissions below current levels…
The challenge
Total Greenhouse Gas emissions
GtCO2-eq/yr
60
Between 1970 and 2004
global greenhouse
gas emissions
have increased by 70%
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1970
1980
1990
2000 2004
Carbon dioxide is the largest contributor
F-gases
Carbon Dioxide
10
Gt CO2eq/yr
5
CO2 decay and peat2
5
HFCs, PFCs, SF6
0
1970
1980
1990
CO2 deforestation3,4
0
2000 2004
1970
1980
1990
2000 2004
Di-nitrogen-oxide
Carbon Dioxide
5
N2O other
30
N2O agriculture
0
1970
1980
1990
25
2000 2004
20
15
Methane
10
CH4 waste and other
5
CH4 agriculture
CH4 energy1
0
1970
1980
1990
2000 2004
10
CO2 other5
5
CO2 fossil fuel use
0
1970
1980
1990
2000 2004
Global greenhouse gas emissions will continue to grow
Total greenhouse gas emissions
GtCO2-eq/yr
80
By 2030 there will be a 25-90%
increase in greenhouse gas
emissions compared with 2000
unless additional policy
measures are put in place
60
40
20
0
A1F1
2000
A2
A1B
A1T
B1
2030
IPCC SRES scenarios
B2
Carbon Dioxide
Methane
Nitrous Dioxide
F-gases
Emissions of greenhouse gases can be avoided
There is substantial capability to prevent emissions of greenhouse gases in 2030.
Economic mitigation potential until 2030 could offset the projected growth of global
emissions, or reduce emissions below current levels
BOTTOM-UP
GtCO2-eq
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
low end of range
<0
<20
<50
high end of range
<100 US$/tCO2-eq
low end of range
<20
<50
Global economic potential in 2030
Note: estimates do not include non-technical options such as lifestyle changes
GtCO2-eq
TOP-DOWN
high end of range
Projected increase GHG emissions in 2030 above 2000
GtCO2-eq
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
A1F1 A2
A1B A1T
B1
B2
<100 US$/tCO2-eq
Greenhouse gas emissions
Mitigation measures do not have an unrealistically
high price
What does US$50/tCOeq mean?
Crude oil
Gasoline
Electricity
~US$25/barrel
~12ct/litre
(50ct/gallon)
from coal fired plant:
~5ct/kWh
from gas fired plant:
~1.5ct/kWh
All sectors and regions have the potential
to contribute
GtCO2-eq/yr
Developing Countries
Economies in Transition
OECD Countries
World total
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
<20
<50
<100
Energy supply
<20
<50
<100
Transport
<20
<50
<100
Buildings
<20
<50
<100
Industry
Emission reductions based on the end-use of energy
<20
<50
<100
Agriculture
<20
<50
<100
Forestry
<20
<50
Waste
<100
How can emissions be reduced?
Energy Supply
Key mitigation technologies and
practices currently commercially
available
Key mitigation technologies and
practices projected to be
commercialised before 2030
•
•
•
•
• CCS for gas
• Biomass and coal-fired electricity
Efficiency
Fuel switching
Nuclear power
Renewable (hydropower, solar, wind,
geothermal and bioenergy)
• Combined heat and power
• Early applications of CO2 capture
and storage (CCS)
generating facilities
• Advanced renewables (tidal and wave
energy, concentrating solar, solar PV)
How can emissions be reduced?
Transport
Key mitigation technologies and
practices currently commercially
available
Key mitigation technologies and
practices projected to be
commercialised before 2030
•
•
•
•
• Second generation biofuels
• Higher efficiency aircraft
• Advanced electric and hybrid vehicles
More fuel efficient vehicles
Hybrid vehicles
Biofuels
Modal shifts from road transport to
rail and public transport systems
• Cycling, walking
• Land-use planning
with more powerful and reliable
batteries
How can emissions be reduced?
Industry
Key mitigation technologies and
practices currently commercially
available
Key mitigation technologies and
practices projected to be
commercialised before 2030
•
•
•
•
• Advanced energy efficiency
• CCS for cement, ammonia, and iron
More efficient electrical equipment
Heat and power recovery
Material recycling
Control of non-CO2 gas emissions
manufacture
• Inert electrodes for aluminum
manufacture
How can emissions be reduced?
Buildings
Key mitigation technologies and
practices currently commercially
available
Key mitigation technologies and
practices projected to be
commercialised before 2030
• Efficient lighting
• Efficient appliances and air-
• Integrated design of commercial
conditioners
• Improved insulation
• Solar heating and cooling
• Alternatives for fluorinated gases in
insulation and appliances
buildings including technologies, such
as intelligent meters that provide
feedback and control
• Solar PV integrated in buildings
How can emissions be reduced?
Agriculture
Key mitigation technologies and
practices currently commercially
available
Key mitigation technologies and
practices projected to be
commercialised before 2030
• Improved land management
• Restoration of cultivated peat soils
• Improvement of crop yields
and degraded land
• Improved rice cultivation technology.
• Improved livestock and manure
management
• Improved N-fertiliser application
(+ bioenergy crops)
How can emissions be reduced?
Forestry
Key mitigation technologies and
practices currently commercially
available
Key mitigation technologies and
practices projected to be
commercialised before 2030
•
•
•
•
• Tree species improvement
• Improved remote sensing
Afforestation, reforestation
Forest management
Reduced deforestation
Harvested wood product
management
(+ bioenergy crops)
technologies for mapping, land use
change and carbon sequestration
potential
How can emissions be reduced?
Changes in lifestyle & behaviour
Key mitigation technologies and
practices currently commercially
available
• Consumers change their behaviour
through their choice of lifestyle
options
• Staff incentives encourage a change
in practices in the workplace
• Car owners employ a more fuelefficient way of driving; ‘eco-driving’,
by accelerating and braking less
strongly.
• Reduce car use by shifting to other
modes of transport.
An effective carbon-price signal could realise
significant mitigation potential in all sectors
• Policies such as regulation, restricting the quantity of emissions produced and economic
instruments such as a carbon tax or allocating tradable emission permits make it costly
to emit greenhouse gases
• The resulting extra costs for industries and consumers could encourage investment in
non-carbon based technologies
• To obtain stabilisation at around 550ppm (parts per million), CO2
equivalent carbon prices should reach US$20-80 per tCO2 eq by 2030
• At these prices, large shifts of investments into low carbon technologies can be expected
What are the macro-economic costs in 2030?
•
•
The financial impact - even if tough measures are put in place to reduce emissions.
For the most severe path to reach stabilisation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and thus to stablise global
temperature, the effect on the world economy would be less than 3% in 2030. A loss of 3% of GDP means a country
would be equally well off one year later.
Trajectories towards
stabilisation levels
(ppm CO2-eq)
Median
GDP reduction1
(%)
Range of GDP reduction2
(%)
Reduction of average annual GDP
growth rates3
(percentage points)
590-710
0.2
-0.6 – 1.2
<0.06
535-590
0.6
0.2 – 2.5
<0.1
Not available
<3
<0.12
445-5354
[1] This is global GDP based market exchange rates.
[2] The median and the 10th and 90th percentile range of the analyzed data are given.
[3] The calculation of the reduction of the annual growth rate is based on the average reduction during the period till 2030 that would result in the indicated GDP decrease in 2030.
[4] The number of studies that report GDP results is relatively small and they generally use low baselines.
There are also co-benefits of mitigation
• Many climate change mitigation measures lead to less air pollution.
The resulting health benefits may offset some of the mitigation costs.
• Mitigation can also be positive for: energy security, improving the
balance of trade, providing rural areas with modern energy services
and sustainable agriculture and employment.
Stabilising global mean temperature requires a stabilisation of
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.
10
Equilibrium global mean temperature
increase over pre-industrial (°C)
The lower the aspired temperature
increase, the lower the
concentration stabilisation level
8
E
6
D
C
4
B
A2
A1
2
0
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
GHG concentration stabilization level (ppmv CO2 –eq)
1000
The lower the stabilisation level, the earlier global CO2
emissions have to peak
• The lower the target stabilisation level
limit, the earlier global emissions have
to peak.
35
30
Stabilisation targets:
E: 850-1130 ppm CO2-eq
• Limiting increase to 3.2 – 4°C requires
emissions to peak within the next 55
years.
• Limiting increase to 2.8 – 3.2°C
requires global emissions to peak
within 25 years.
• Limiting global mean temperature
increases to 2 – 2.4°C above preindustrial levels requires global
emissions to peak within 15 years and
then fall to about 50 to 85% of current
levels by 2050.
World CO2 Emissions (GtC)
D: 710-850 ppm CO2-eq
25
C: 590-710 ppm CO2-eq
B: 535-590 ppm CO2-eq
A2: 490-535 ppm CO2-eq
20
A1: 445-490 ppm CO2-eq
15
10
5
0
-5
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Multigas and CO2 only studies combined
Investments
• Energy infrastructure investment decisions
(20 trillion US$ till 2030) will have long term impacts
on GHG emissions
• The widespread diffusion of low-carbon technologies
may take many decades, even if early investments
in these technologies are made attractive
The importance of technology policies
• The lower the stabilisation levels, the
earlier global CO2 emissions have
to peak
• Government support is important for
effective technology development,
innovation and deployment
• BUT, government funding for most
energy research programmes has been
declining for nearly two decades; now
about half of 1980 level
www.ipcc.ch
The report of IPCC Working Group III is available at
www.mnp.nl/ipcc