Transcript McGraw-Hill Construction

2009 McGraw-Hill
Construction Outlook
Cliff Brewis
Senior Director Editorial Operations
San Francisco, CA
Points of Perspective – U.S. Construction
Total Construction Activity by Cycle
Cyclical Trough (T) = 100, Based on Constant 2000 Dollars
190
1991-2009
175
160
1975-1982
145
1982-1991
130
115
100
85
1991- 2005
T
T+2
T+4
T+6
T+8
T+10
T+12
Years from Cyclical Trough
2
T+14
T+16
T+18
Abandoned/Delayed
3
Percentages
Government Intervention
LEHMAN BROTHERS
U. S. Federal Reserve
4
Issues to Address

Liquidity

Home Price Stabilization

De-Leveraging

Complexity of Securities/Limiting Risk

Global Economy
Adjust to a Re-calibrated Level of Activity
5
Economy Has Further to Fall
Real Gross Domestic Product
Annualized Percent Change
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
2005
2006
2007
2008
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Economy.com
6
2009
U.S. Single Family
Home Sales -- Newand Existing Homes
Single Family Housing
Millions -- New homes, left scale; Existing homes, right scale
Thousands of Dwelling Units
1.6
7.5
1,600
1.4
7.0
Existing
Homes (R)
1,400
1.2
1,200
1.0
1,000
0.8
1,800
6.5
6.0
5.5
800
5.0
New
Homes (L)
0.6
4.5
600
4.0
0.4
400
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
Supply of Single Family Housing
00
08
Number of Months
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
12
Percent Change, Same Quarter a Year Ago
20
10
15
8
10
5
6
0
-5
4
-10
2
-15
90
7
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
WA: Single Family
$9,000,000
$8,000,000
$7,000,000
$6,000,000
$5,000,000
$4,000,000
$3,000,000
$2,000,000
$1,000,000
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90
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91
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92
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93
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94
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95
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96
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97
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98
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99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
$0
‘$000.00
8
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
WA: Multi Family
$2,500,000
$2,000,000
$1,500,000
$1,000,000
$500,000
$0
‘$000.00
9
WA: Retail
$800,000
$700,000
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
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90
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91
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95
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96
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98
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99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
$0
‘$000.00
10
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90
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91
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92
19
93
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94
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95
19
96
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97
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98
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99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
WA: Office
$1,200,000
$1,000,000
$800,000
$600,000
$400,000
$200,000
$0
‘$000.00
11
U.S. Commercial Bldgs. -- Offices
U.S. Office Vacancy Rates
Change in Office Employment
Thousands of Workers
1,250
25
1,000
20
750
500
15
250
10
0
5
-250
-500
Suburban
15.1%
10.7%
Downtown
0
-750
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
12
Source: CB Richard Ellis
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
WA: Education
$1,600,000
$1,400,000
$1,200,000
$1,000,000
$800,000
$600,000
$400,000
$200,000
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90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
$0
‘$000.00
13
Enrollment Gains Vary by State
Source: National Center for Education Statistics
14
WA: Health
$800,000
$700,000
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
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90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
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98
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99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
$0
‘$000.00
15
Aging Population Remains a Boost
Change in the U.S. Population Age 65+
(In Millions)
10
7.77
8
6.24
6
4
2
3.35
1.54
0
2000-05
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
16
2005-10
2010-15
2015-20
WA: Highway & Bridge
$4,000,000
$3,500,000
$3,000,000
$2,500,000
$2,000,000
$1,500,000
$1,000,000
$500,000
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
$0
17
Washington
($000.00)
Education
2004
$892,566
Government
$251,408
Health
$288,568
Highways
$663,692
Hotels
$130,707
Manufacturing
$566,712
Multi Family
$805,277
Office
$472,303
Retail
$418,528
Single Family
$6,490,588
Water Supply
$164,226
Total
18
$14,129,734
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
$1,131,164 $1,180,321 $1,403,886 $1,088,563 $1,275,857
126.7%
104.3%
118.9%
77.5%
117.2%
$211,689
$363,061
$187,040
$281,463
$238,110
84.2%
171.5%
51.5%
150.5%
84.6%
$613,951
$437,792
$641,052
$640,359
$606,580
212.8%
71.3%
146.4%
99.9%
94.7%
$781,888
$727,363
$877,778
$869,143
$783,982
117.8%
93.0%
120.7%
99.0%
90.2%
$220,800
$364,518
$237,394
$294,078
$235,377
168.9%
165.1%
65.1%
123.9%
80.0%
$215,315
$228,193
$210,919
$121,674
$126,392
38.0%
106.0%
92.4%
57.7%
103.9%
$1,040,867 $1,975,551 $1,898,104 $1,058,373 $1,010,305
129.3%
189.8%
96.1%
55.8%
95.5%
$337,649
$869,335 $1,091,670 $1,043,587
$852,510
71.5%
257.5%
125.6%
95.6%
81.7%
$423,773
$563,693
$733,843
$549,245
$467,537
101.3%
133.0%
130.2%
74.8%
85.1%
$8,058,816 $7,424,830 $6,487,973 $3,890,406 $3,771,726
124.2%
92.1%
87.4%
60.0%
96.9%
$193,005
$266,181
$300,791
$279,028
$250,642
117.5%
137.9%
113.0%
92.8%
89.8%
$17,064,554 $18,722,572 $19,317,146 $14,065,856 $13,050,343
120.8%
109.7%
103.2%
72.8%
92.8%
Questions?
Cliff Brewis
Senior Director Editorial
McGraw-Hill Construction/Dodge
[email protected]
925.963.3782
19
construction.com