Transcript Folie 1

The Agricultural Challenges
in the Western Balkan Countries and
the EU‘s Common Agricultural Policy
University of Mostar
F. Fischler
Mostar, 21 May 2010
Outline
•
Challenges:
– The Economic Crisis
– Climate Change
– Growing Market Volatility
– Rural Zones: The Potential Loser of Globalisation?
•
The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP):
– The Beginning
– The Present System
– The Future European Agricultural Model
•
The Rural Development Policy
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The Economic Crisis
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Europe‘s growth was serverly hit
4
The crises has wiped out progress
•
GDP growth: -4 % in 2009, worst since the 1930s
•
Industrial production: -20 % with the crises, back to the
1990s
•
Unemployment levels:
– 23 million people
– 7 million more unemployed in 20 months
– Expected to reach 10.3 % in 2010 (back to 1990s level)
– Youth unemployment over 21 %
Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the Informal European Council, 11 February 2010
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Unemployment has spread
6
Europe must react to avoid decline
•
Our growth potential has been halved by the crisis:
if we do nothing, we will end the decade with very low
economic growth
•
Ageing is accelerating: our working age population will be
reduced by about 2 million by 2020, and the number of 60+
is increasing twice as fast as before 2007
•
Productivity levels are lagging behind: two-thirds of our
income gap with the US is due to lower productivity
Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the Informal European Council, 11 February 2010
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Our room for manoeuvre is limited
•
Our public finances are very severely affected: deficits at 7 %
GDP on average and debt levels at over 80 %; 2 years wiped
out 20 years of consolidation
•
Our financial system still needs fixing: reduced bank lending
is still holding back recovery
•
Global competition is fierce: EU share of global exports is
declining relative to China and India
Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the Informal European Council, 11 February 2010
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Global competition is fierce
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We must learn the lesson
•
Our economies are interdependent:
up to 70 % of car components for each car produced in the
EU come from other Member States; overall, for € 1000 of
growth in a Member State, around € 200 goes to other
Member States via intra-EU trade
•
In the crisis, the need for coordination became obvious; it is
even more crucial for our recovery: decisions taken in one
Member State impact the others
•
The EU adds value: we should build on our strengths – the
internal market, the euro – and on our leadership in the G20
Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the Informal European Council, 11 February 2010
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Our Futures are Interlinked
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Where Do We Want Europe in 2020?
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From Exit to Lasting Recovery
•
The „exit“ means the entry into a different economy: We will
not return to the situation before the crisis
•
We must face up long-term realities – globalisation, pressure
on resources, ageing, technological trends – and tap our full
potential
•
2020 starts now: Our recovery efforts must pave the way for
sustainable growth and fiscal consolidation
Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the Informal European Council, 11 February 2010
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Three priorities for sustainable growth and jobs
•
Growth based on knowledge and innovation
– Innovation
– Education
– Digital society
•
An inclusive high-employment society
– Employment
– Skills
– Fighting poverty
•
Green growth: A competitive and sustainable economy
– Combating climate change
– Clean and efficient energy
– Competitiveness
Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the Informal European Council, 11 February 2010
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Climate Change
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Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)
1°C
2°C
3°C
4°C
5°C
0°C
Food
Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly
developing regions
Falling yields in many
developed regions
Possible rising yields in
some high latitude regions
Water
Small mountain glaciers
disappear – melt-water
supplies threatened in
several areas
Significant fall in water availability
e.g. Mediterranean and Southern
Africa
Sea level rise
threatens major cities
Ecosystems
Extensive Damage
to Coral Reefs
Rising number of species face extinction
Extreme
Weather EventsRising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding, heat waves
Risk of Abrupt and
Major Irreversible
Changes
Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and
abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system
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The Moral Dilemma
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Technologies to Reduce Global CO² Emissions
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Growing Market Volatility
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Evolution of commodity price indexes (1960-2009)
Source: World Bank , March 2010
(2000 = 100)
500
400
300
200
100
Agriculture
Food
Energy
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Fertilizers
2008
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
1960
0
Metals/minerals
20
Long-term Price Evolution along the Food Supply Chain
140
Food consumer prices
130
120
Overall inflation
(HICP)
110
Agricultural
commodity prices
100
Food producer prices
2000Q01
2000Q02
2000Q03
2000Q04
2001Q01
2001Q02
2001Q03
2001Q04
2002Q01
2002Q02
2002Q03
2002Q04
2003Q01
2003Q02
2003Q03
2003Q04
2004Q01
2004Q02
2004Q03
2004Q04
2005Q01
2005Q02
2005Q03
2005Q04
2006Q01
2006Q02
2006Q03
2006Q04
2007Q01
2007Q02
2007Q03
2007Q04
2008Q01
2008Q02
2008Q03
2008Q04
2009Q01
90
Source: European Commission – DG Economic and Financial Affairs, based on Eurostat and Agriview data
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Rural Zones:
The Losers of Globalisation?
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Effects of Globalisation
•
Globalisation supports the move of production, capital
and people towards the most competitive regions
•
Globalisation favours concentration and urbanisation
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Rural Depression
•
Lack of Jobs
•
Less advanced infrastructure
•
Shortages in public services
•
Not enough private investment
•
Lack of enterpreneurship
•
Outmigration
•
Overaged population
•
Problems with farm succession
•
Frustration and depression
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The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)
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The Beginning of the CAP July, 30th 1962
The Goals:
• Increase of agricultural productivity
• Increase of the incomes of the agricultural working
population
• Stabilization of markets
• Better food supply at reasonable price
• Common financial responsibility
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The Beginning of the CAP –
The Market Mechanisms
Export Subsidies
Intervention Price
Market Price
Boarder Protection
Target Price
World Market Price
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The Present System
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Market Organisations
• Quota systems
• Safetynet intervention
• Privat storage suppport
• Limited export subsidies
• Quality policy and protection of origin
• Producer organisations
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Single Farm Payments
• Decoupled direct payments
• 3 applied models (HM, SPS, SAPS)
• Cross compliance
• Progressive modulation
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The Future European Agricultural Model
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The European Agricultural Model
enshrined in the European Economic Model
The Union shall work for the sustainable development of
Europe based on balanced economic growth and price
stability, a highly competitive social market economy,
aiming at full employment and social progress, and a
high level of protection and improvement of the quality
of the environment. It shall promote scientific and
technological advance.
Article I-3 (3) Lissbon Treaty
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Future CAP-Objectives
A sustainable balance of:
•
Food security
– a competitive agriculture and food industry
– based on knowledge, innovation and education
– to be efficient and effective
•
Environmental security
– production of public goods
– protection of the environment and nature
– mitigating climate change and adapting to a changed climate
•
Social security
– income levels comparable with the average of the
working population
– farm succession
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Future Market Instruments
•
private storage
•
limited intervention
•
export promotion
•
producer organisations and production chains
•
quality policy and protection of origin
•
price transparency and price transferability
•
income safety net
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Direct payments
Possible development of the 1st pillar
2002 fixed ceiling
French and Irish hope
Modulation and
financial discipline
e.g. 20 %
German estimate
British vision
Salzburg,
Wien, 12.
May
Mai12
2009
2009
35
DP net ceilings fully phased-in (EUR/ha)
EU flat rate
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EUR/ha
Latvia
Estonia
Romania
Lithuania
Portugal
EU-12
Poland
Spain
Slovakia
United Kingdom
Austria
Sweden
Finland
EU-27
Czech Republic
Luxembourg
Bulgaria
EU-15
France
Slovenia
Ireland
Hungary
Germany
Italy
Denmark
Cyprus
Belgium
Netherlands
Greece
Malta
Single Farm Payment System
EUR/ben.
700
42000
600
35000
500
28000
400
300
21000
200
14000
100
7000
0
0
DP net ceilings fully phased-in (EUR/beneficiary)
36
Single Farm Payment System
Regionalised Model
•
National envelopes based on objective criteria
•
Variability kept
(arable land – grassland, Art 68, 70 etc.)
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Single Farm Payment System
Flat Rate Model
•
future level of SPS defined by the community
budget
•
criteria for national top-ups
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Development of CAP expenditures
and CAP reform
70
% BIP
Mrd €
EU-10
EU-12
EU-15
EU-25
0,7%
EU-27
0,6%
50
0,5%
40
0,4%
30
0,3%
20
0,2%
10
0,1%
0
0,0%
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
60
Exporterstattungen
Entkoppelte Zahlungen
Marktstützung
Ländliche Entwicklung
Direktzahlungen
% des EU BIP
39
39
Development of CAP share of EU budget…
GAP
Kosten
CAP
Costs1992
1992
GAP
Kosten 2007
CAP Costs 2007
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
Mrd €
CAP
GAPExpend.
Ausgaben
Mrd €
EU
EUBudget
Haushalt
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CAP
GAP Expend.
Ausgaben
EU
EU Budget
Haushalt
40
…and different views of CAP costs…
GAPCosts
Kosten2007
2007 (absolute)
(absolut)
CAP
60
GAP
Kosten
2007(relative)
(relativ)
CAP
Costs
2007
50%
EU-27
EU-27
50
40%
40
30%
30
20%
20
10
10%
0
0%
Mrd €
GDPam
share
Anteil
BIP
CAP
GAPExpend.
Ausgaben
Total
publicöffentliche
EU spending
Gesamte
Ausgaben
CAP
GAPExpend.
Ausgaben
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der EU
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The Rural Development Policy
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The Rural Development Approach
•
One Rural Development Programme for each
Rural Region
•
Bottom Up Programming and Management
•
CAP offers a toolbox with defined conditions
•
Co-financing
•
Single Controlling
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Rural development 2007 - 2013

Strategic guidance on 3 main objectives:
- Competitive agriculture and forestry;
- Improving the environment and countryside by
supporting land management;
- Diversification of rural economies and improving of
the quality of life.

Implementation within the framework of the 4 axes on
the basis of the financial contribution - balance of the
axis (10 /25/ 10 / 5).

Financial allocation of 88 billion € for the period 2007 2013
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Rural Development Policy
AXIS 1. Improving competitiveness

Strengthening of the human potential
- Education and training
- Young farmer programme
- Early retirement
- Advisory service
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Rural Development Policy
AXIS 1.Improving competitiveness

Restructuring, modernisation and innovation
- Modernisation of farms and processing plants
- Strengthening of the food chain
- Restructuring after natural disasters
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Rural Development Policy
AXIS 1:Improving competitiveness

Quality improvements
- Adaptation to new legal or normative
requirements
- Support of producer organizations

Specific measures in the new member states
- Restructuring of semi-subsistence farms
- Support for establishing producer organizations
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Rural Development Policy
AXIS 2.Improvement of the environment and the
landscapes

Sustainable use of agricultural and forest land
- Compensation payments to farmers in
mountainous and other disadvantaged areas
- Compensation payments in the context with
NATURA 2000
- Agri-environmental measures
- Support of non-productive investments
- Afforestation measures
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Rural Development Policy
AXIS 3. Quality of life in rural zones and diversification
of the rural economy


Diversification of the rural economy
-
Non-agricultural activities
-
Micro-enterprises
-
Tourism industry
Improvement of the quality of life
-
Services
-
Village renewal
-
Improvement and conservation of the rural heritage
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Rural Development Policy
AXIS 3. Quality of life in rural zones and
diversification of the rural economy

Job education and information for rural actors

Support of strategy development for and
sensibilisation of local actors
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Rural Development Policy
AXIS
4. Leader
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The three 2007-2013 RD thematic axes in the MS
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Axis 1: Competitiveness
Axis 2: Environment and land management
EU-12
EU-15
EU-27
United Kingdom
Sweden
Spain
Slovenia
Slovakia
Romania
Portugal
Poland
Netherlands
Malta
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Latvia
Italy
Ireland
Hungary
Greece
Germany
France
Finland
Estonia
Denmark
Czech Republic
Cyprus
Bulgaria
Austria
0%
Belgium
10%
Axis 3: Quality of life and diversification
Source: European Commission - DG Agriculture and Rural Development
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Thank you for your attention!
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