Status of Regional Haze Plans

WRAP Board Meeting Salt Lake City, UT February 19, 2008

• Status Report:

– Summary of emissions and visibility trends – Program implementation to date – Status of BART Determinations – Progress and schedule for submitting Regional Haze plans

• Roundtable discussion to follow

Emissions Sources and Regions + Visibility Trends

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Emissions comparison by regions

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Trends at 4 sites

Western State Power Plant Emissions (1995-2006)

600,000 550,000 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 SO2 (tpy) NOx (tpy) CO2/1000 (tpy)

SO 2 emissions used in WRAP regional haze analysis

NOx emissions before BART used in WRAP regional haze analysis

Carbon PM emissions used in WRAP regional haze analysis

Dust PM emissions used in WRAP regional haze analysis

Visibility trends 1995 to 2004 Three Sisters Wilderness, OR

Visibility trends 1997 to 2004 Yellowstone NP, WY/ID/MT

Visibility trends 1995 to 2004 Rocky Mountain NP, CO

Visibility trends 1995 to 2004 Petrified Forest NP, AZ

Additional reductions expected from major point sources

• All BART sources in WRAP region will be controlled • BART • §309 SO 2 Milestone Program • BART is a complicated and time-consuming process • In the West… • No federal rule (i.e., CAIR) • Limited contribution to nonattainment areas

NAAQS Nonattainment & CAIR region Maps

http://www.epa.gov/air/particlepollution/pdfs/20061025_graphsmaps.pdf

http://www.epa.gov/air/ozonepollution/pdfs/20070621_maps.pdf

http://www.epa.gov/CAIR/index.html

SO

2

Milestone Program status

• Annex prepared 2000, EPA adopted, ‘04 court decision nullified • AZ, NM, OR, UT, and WY completed §309 plans with declining regional emissions milestones in 2003 • Annual milestone tracking reports since 2003 • In 2008, 4 states (OR to use §308) are resubmitting §309 plans with with updated milestones based on: – Improved emissions projections for all sources in program – Maintaining tribal set-aside – Input from stakeholders

State AK AZ CA CO HI ID MT (by EPA R8) NV NM ND OR SD UT WA WY Tribal (by EPA R9) Totals WRAP Region BART Sources # EGU Plants

2 4 0 8 4 2 6 0 2 4 1

# EGU Units

4 12 0 14 6 0 3 10 4 7 7

# Non-EGU Plants

3 5 20 1 0 3 2 1 3 1 0 1 2 1 5 2 44 1 4 2 13 8 95 0 0 7 3 0 49

State Alaska Arizona California Colorado Hawaii Idaho Montana Nevada New Mexico North Dakota Oregon South Dakota Utah Washington Wyoming Tribal

Probable BART Completion Matrix

BART Completion Date Mid to late 2008 X X Other X X X X X X X X X X X X Later ?

Later ?

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Implementation Work Group Co-Chairs

– Tina Anderson, Wyoming DEQ – Mike Edwards, Idaho DEQ

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IWG is regional haze planners from each state + tribal, FLM, and EPA regional office reps

+ WRAP staff support

2018 “Reasonable Progress Goals” in Regional Haze Plans

• Reasonable Progress for 2018 is based on: – BART, SO 2 Milestone Program, and other stationary source reductions – Mobile reductions from federal rules, exceeds GCVTC recommendations – Smoke Management Programs – referenced in SIPs – Implementation of other state air quality programs • Long-term strategy includes: – Evaluating opportunity for additional point and area source controls • O&G in particular and – Other sources • Uncertain emissions • Controllable vs. Uncontrollable Sources • Addressing fire tracking with Fire Emissions Tracking System • Dust • International transport

Section 308 Haze Planning - Estimated Dates of Completion State http://www.wrapair.org/308/index.html

BART Rulemaking SIP Hearing SIP Adoption Comments

AK Jan 2008 – Determs. March 2009 June 2009 Late 2009 Estimates are worst-case dependent on sources’ responses to analyses AZ CA CO HI ID MT (EPA) ND NM NV 1st Quarter 2008 Early 2008 Complete and submitted Unknown Rule complete. Determs. In process Analyses Nov 2007 Comments Pending Done!

Determs. February 2008 1st Quarter 2008 August 2008 July 24-25, 2008 RPG SIP Undetermined – Late 2008 Unknown July/August 2008 Undetermined BART in May, RPG SIP October 2008 July 2008 Undetermined August 2008 August or September, 2008 RPG SIP Undetermined – Late 2008 Unknown September/October 2008 Undetermined BART June/July, RPG SIP November 2008 July 2008 Undetermined BART sources regulated by local districts Outstanding BART issues SIP and BART on same schedule BART authorization rule complete. BART and SIP separate schedules BART Authorization in effect SIP Schedule determined soon after BART OR SD WA WY Tribal Sources (EPA – Navajo, Four Corners) Late 2008 1st half 2008 Rule in place. Determs. July 2008 DONE!

Mid - 2009 Summer 2008 2nd half 2008 Late Winter 2008 or 2009 Mid 2008 Late 2008 2nd half 2008 Late Winter 2008 or 2009 Mid to late 2008 Proposal Mid-2008

Last updated on: 2/16/2008

Section 309 Haze Planning - Estimated Dates of Completion http://wrapair.org/309/index.html

Comments State

AZ

SO2 Trading Rule Revisions

1st Quarter 2008

SIP Hearing

June 2008

SIP Adoption

June 2008 NM July 2008 July 2008 July/August 2008 Alb/BC,NM Rule completed in 2003. UT Done!

Pending further notice April 2007 Pending further notice June/July 2008 WY Hearing – Feb 2008, Final Rules – April 2008 March, April 2008

Last updated on: 2/16/2008

Mid–2008

What is left to do?

4 hurdles

 Individual states are processing BART applications and determining emissions limits for permits – complicated  States completing reasonable progress analyses, WRAP staff helping  SIPs require administrative rulemaking and public hearing processes  States must consult with FLMs

Thanks!

Questions and Roundtable Discussion

BART Eligible Power Plants AK AZ Anchorage ML&P, GVEA Healy APS West Phoenix & Cholla, AEPCO Apache & SRP Coronado Colorado Springs Drake, PSC Valmont, Cherokee, Comanche, Hayden & Pawnee, Tri-State Craig & Trigen Golden CO HI MT NV NM ND OR SD UT HECO Kahe & Waiau, HELCO Kanoelehua, Hilo Coast, KIUC Port Allen & MECO Kahului PP&L Colstrip & Corette Sierra Pacific Tracy & Ft. Churchill, Nevada Power Reid Gardner & SoCal Edison Mohave PNM San Juan Basin Leland Olds, Great River Coal Creek & Stanton & Minnkota Milton Young PGE Beaver & Boardman Otter Tail Big Stone Pacificorp Hunter & Huntington WA WY Trans Alta Centralia Pacificorp Dave Johnston, Jim Bridger, Naughton & Wyodak & Basin Laramie River Tribal SRP Navajo & APS Four Corners

BART Eligible Non-EGU Sources

AK Agrium Urea, Conoco-Phillips LNG & Tesoro Refining AZ Abitibi Pulp, Arizona Cement, CLC Nelson Lime, Asarco Hayden & PD Miami Copper CA Too Numerous to List CO Cemex Lyons Cement HI Hawaiian Sugar & Tesoro Refining ID TASCO Sugar, Monsanto/P4 MT Columbia Falls Aluminum, Ashgrove & Holcim Cement NV Nevada Cement OR Ft. James Wauna & Weyerhaeuser Springfield Pulp, Amalgamated Sugar Nyssa WA WY BP Cherry Point & Tesoro Refining, Alcoa Ferndale & Wenatchee, Port Townsend & Weyerhaeuser Longview Pulp & Lafarge Cement FMC Granger & Green River, General Chemical Soda Ash Plants