Transcript SUBJECT 1. Basic Concepts in respect of disasters DAMAGE

Basic Concepts in respect
of disasters
DAMAGE AND
RECONSTRUCTION NEEDS
ASSESSMENT MODULE
DISASTERS: CONCEPTS, TYPES
AND CAUSES
Social
sectors
Infrastructure
and services
Productive
sectors
Environment
Dynamic interaction between sectors and
activities with natural occurrences:
Vulnerability and mitigation
Landslips,
Mudslides and avalanches
silt deposits
and erosion
Groundswells,
sea surges
and high
waves
Flooding and
rain
The role of all societal forces,
•
Distinguish them by
nature and exposure, is
crucial to understand
the impact of disasters.
• Human actions
progressively
HUMAN
deteriorate the
ACTIONS
environment
• Natural phenomena
affect the environment
(positively / negatively)
• Impact of disasters
tends to increase
NATURAL
PHENOMENA
ENVIRONMENT
Some basic definitions
• risk, vulnerability, mitigation recurrence, etc.
Sensibility
Response
Capability
Ricardo Zapata
Probability of
occurrence
Type
Magnitude
Intensity
Speed and velocity
Persistence
Recurrence
ECLAC / DMF Workshop
17
Disasters vicious cycle
SECURITY
*
SOCIAL
STABILITY
(Reduced Vulnerability)
GOOD
GOVERNANCE
ECONOMIC
RECOVERY
Vulnerability
SEQUENCE OF EFFECTS
PHENOMENON:
EFFECTS:
direct
indirect
Characteristics
(physical description,
typology and context)
LINKAGES
Menace
Risk
Vulnerability
Impact/Benefit of reconstruction (global, by sector)
qReduce vulnerability
qSynergies for reconstruction: “appropriation” of risk by
affected/menaced population (community, social group, sector,
country)
PHASES IN A DISASTER
The disaster cycle:
EMERGENCY
REHABILITATION
RECONSTRUCTION
PREVENTION AND
MITIGATION
ALERT AND
PREPARATION
DISASTER RESPONSE AND
NEEDS ASSESSMENTS
FROM VALUATION TO
RECONSTRUCTION AND MITIGATION
VALUE OF DAMAGES
By economic actors and sectors
Public
Private
REPLACEMENT COSTS
By economic sectors and actors
Public
Private
RECONSTRUCTION REQUIREMENTS
By economic and sector actors
Public
Private
At present value costs
Absorption capacity
Includes asset depreciation
Material
Considers the state of asset at time of damage
Work force
Discounts lack of maintenantce
Institutuional
TECHNOLOGICAL IMRPOVEMENT
REINFORCEMENT/REINGENEERING
PREVENTION
MITIGATION
Scheduling
Input availability
Material
Human
Finacial
Macroeconomic impact
Financial implications
Public
Private
Domerstic resources
Credits
Donations
Insurance and reinsurance
External resources
Credits
MACROECONOMIC VIABILITY Donations
SUSTAINABILITY
CREDIBILITY
Project formulation
Reconstrction and replacement
Mitigation and reinforcement
Prevention
CLARIFYING SOME CONCEPTS
MITIGATION
Encompasses
actions
“before”,
“during” and
“after”
• Actions (programmes, project) with
the objective of counteracting
(reducing the negative impact) of an
occurrence.
• Includes allocation of resources to
reinforce structures, redesign or alter
existing elements to reduce
vulnerability in addition to training
and organisation (including at the
community level)
• Ownership of actions is fundamental
to build trust
VULNERABILITY
Calculation made on the
basis or exposure to
the recurrence of
conflict
•
•
•
•
•
Risk factors or exposure to
danger of existing institutional
framework such as:
Marginalisation,
Informality,
Pauperization,
Conditions of human
settlements and localisation of
productive activities (primary,
industrial, tertiary or services)
and their linkage among them
and with the environment.
TYPE OF HAZARDS IN DEVELOPING LATIN AMERICA:
VOLCANIC ,
SISMIC
STORMS AND HURRICANES
DISASTER REDUCTION
Encompasses actions “before”, “during” and “after”
•
•
Actions (programmes, project) with the objective of reducing vulnerability and exposure to risk in the face
of the interaction between human action and natural foreseeable or recurrent events.
Implies the use (design and enforcement) of construction codes, land-use regulation, space planning,
institutional arrangements and community involvement
Proposed courses
of action
Restore economic and
social fabric
Restore and strengthen
productive linkages
(upstream/downstream)
Reduce internal / external
vulnerability
Sectoral components:
External policies:
Introduce risk
management as part
Internal policies:
of the regional
Include vulnerability reduction as an international agenda,
alongside:
objective of development plans
alongside goals of:
•External competitive
insertion
•Competitive growth
•Benefiting from the
•Equitable development
globalization process
•Sustainable and sustained
•Inclusive regional
development
insertion
•Social participation
•Monitoring, analysis and climate
forecasting, including forest fires
•Contingency plans in key sectors, for
example:
•Agriculture, cattle raising,
•rural poverty,
•energy and baselines
•Water and health
•Interconnected systems
•Regulation of basic services with
sponsorship of private enterprise
•Focalized plans for vulnerable groups,
including employment, food availability
and nutrition
•Education to reduce vulnerability
•Diagnosis and monitoring of
vulnerability at the local level
RISK MANAGEMENT
Actions to be carried out
“before” with
consequences “during”
and “after”
•
•
•
•
Pro-active strategy (in contrast to reactive response) to reduce
vulnerability and counteract risk
factors
Its objective is disaster reduction
Is not a sector action but a global set
of actions encompassing all sectors,
beginning with sound environmental
management
Is not a conservation policy per-se
but requires sustainability criteria
both in terms of natural resources
and human intervention.
DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Actions to be carried
“during” and the
immediate (short-term)
“after”
•
•
The response strategy (reactive strategy) to, after the
occurrence of a disaster,
intends to counteract its more
immediate negative impact and
prevent more severe effects in
the short term.
Includes emergency actions
(search and rescue, immediate
assistance, shelter, sanitary
and health campaigns,
rehabilitation of lifelines,
assessment of emergency
needs and first appraisal of
reconstruction requirements
TYPES OF DISASTER AND
MAJOR EFFECTS
Type of disaster and effects
Earthquakes Cyclones
Temporary migration
Migration
Homeless
X
X
Industrial losses
X
X
Trade disruption
X
X
Agrticultural losses (planting,
cropping, stocks)
X
Infrastructure damage
X
X
Interruption in distribution process
and market functioning
X
X
Damage to transport chain
X
X
Disruption in communications
X
X
Panic
X
X
Social disorder
X
X
Flooding
X
Tsunamis
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Volcanic
eruptions
Fires Drought
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Hunger
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
DISASTER VALUATION
CONCEPTS
Direct damages
• Impact on assets
• Infrastructure
• Capital
• Stocks
• Occur immediately
during or after the
phenomenon that
caused the disaster
Indirect Damages
• Effects on flows
– Production
– Reduced income and
increased expenses
• Are perceived after
the phenomenon,
for a time-period
that can last from
weeks to months, till
recuperation occurs
DISASTER VALUATION
PURPOSE AND INFORMATION
NEEDS
• Purpose:
– Historical record
– Determine needs for
reconstruction and mitigation
– Design disaster reduction
strategy
• Information needs
– Ex ante data (pre-existing
conditions, baselines)
– Ex-post data (on the basis of
numerous sources and estimates
from the affected population to
economic, social and
environmental effects
TIMELINESS AND ACCURACY
OF VALUATION AND THE
“WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY”
• Window of opportunity and window of need
– Timely response to needs
– Response appropriate to reduce disaster impact and avoid
reconstruction of preexisting vulnerability
– Assessment in time to mobilize necessary (internal and / or
external resources
• Accuracy
– Ensure comparability and methodological consistency
– Acceptable by technical standards and criteria
– Judgment calls to make necessary assumptions and
indirect calculations
– Margin of error within acceptable levels
– Accurate enough to ensure investment and projects where
detailed, completely accurate information will be obtained
Summary of basic concepts
• Disasters, natural, human related and
complex
• Exposure, hazard, risk and vulnerability
• Disaster cycle
• Phases of response
• Type of natural events associated with
disasters
• Basic valuation values
• Duration of disaster, duration of response
and period for evaluation of impacts