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Iraq’s ethnic and religious diversity Both Kurdish and Shi’a issues have played a role in the Gulf conflicts 0 Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) • Based in longstanding disagreements – Religious, ethnic, and territorial • Iranian revolution as the catalyst – Khomeini called on Iraqi Shi’a to rise up against Hussein – Internal Iranian chaos and apparent military weakness • The war begins (1980) – Iraq makes some quick gains of border territory, which forced Iran to mobilize masses of young soldiers and solidify the regime – Iranian counterattacks in early 1982 drove Iraq back across the border and into a defensive position • War of attrition (1982-1988) – Mostly fought on Iraqi territory; Iraq survived a series of scares on Basra – Western and US support for Hussein against Islamic Iran – Iraqi use of chemical weapons, including against Kurds in Halabja • End of the war – Cease-fire in 1988, with no real change to territory or leadership – Massive casualties (more than twice as many for Iran) – Iraq ended the war with 1 million soldiers Halabja monument 1 The Iran-Iraq war Territorial gains on both sides were rather minimal 2 The First Gulf War • Reasons for the first Gulf War – – – – – – Longstanding border dispute Kuwait was overproducing on its OPEC quota Limited Iraqi access to the Persian Gulf Huge Iraqi debts and potentially disloyal military Longstanding resentment of the Gulf oil monarchies Iraq believed it might be able to get away with it • The war begins (1990) – – – – Iraq annexed Kuwait as the 19th province of Iraq after a six-day invasion US builds a coalition of countries to fight Iraq—Operation Desert Shield The Arab world split over participation in the war Huge resentment of US forces stationed on Saudi soil • The war (1991) – – – – – Operation Desert Storm began after the Iraqis refused to withdraw Long air campaign followed by a short land invasion Hussein attempts to link the war to the Palestinian cause Easy land victory with Iraqi troops surrendering and fleeing rapidly Controversial decision not to go in and overthrow Saddam 3 After the Gulf War • Instability in Iraq – Rebellion in the Shi’a south triggered by retreating soldiers – Kurdish rebellion in the north – Major Kurdish refugee crisis, which led to UN intervention in the north • International restrictions – – – – – Destroy chemical/biological/nuclear weapons programs, ballistic missiles Restriction on imports, manufacturing No-fly zones over the north and south Oil for Food program agreed in 1996 Massive suffering as a result of the international sanctions • Changes in Kuwait – – – – Formation of a national assembly, with elections in 1992 Had to dig deep into its pockets for reconstruction Financial and legitimacy scandals in the ruling family Permanent presence of US soldiers • Saudi Arabia – – – – Petitions from liberals and Islamists against the government Creation of a majlis al-shura Increasing resentment of US presence in the country Huge Gulf refugee crisis all over the Middle East 4 The Second Gulf War • Saddam in the 1990s – Managed to have an on-again/off-again relationship with UNSCOM – Continued a public campaign of defiance despite the fact that his weapons programs had been destroyed – Why did Saddam remain defiant? • Linkage of Saddam to 9/11 attacks in the US – – – – – – Dubious linkages: was Saddam an Islamist? Resurrection of a campaign against WMD and Iraq’s defiance Led by a small group in the White House and Pentagon Success in Afghanistan made this look like a winnable war Designation of Saddam as part of an “axis of evil” in 2002 Migrating justifications for the war • The invasion – British and American troops invade in March 2003 – Pretty quick ground battle, Saddam goes into hiding and is eventually discovered – Division of labor in American (Center) and British (South) zones • Institutional development under occupation – Movement toward a constitution and representative national assembly – Sunni reluctance to participate – Insurgent strategy of making Iraq ungovernable 5 Civil violence in Iraq Iraqi civilian deaths by month from 2003 6 Displaced families in Iraq 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 March April May June July Thousands of Iraqis displaced since March 2006 Source: IOM 7 Violence in Iraq The percentage of attacks on Iraqis increased in 2005-2006 8 Key lecture terms—October 17 and 19 Saddam Hussein Green line Ayatollah Khomeini Maronites Shatt al-Arab Hizbullah Halabjah Siege of Beirut UN Special Commission on Disarmament (UNSCOM) Taif Accords Oil for Food Program Michel Aoun Civil Society Omar al-Bashir Corporatism Hasan al-Turabi Diwaniyya John Garang Qat chew Nairobi peace accords Al-Jazeera Darfur Mukhabarat Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) Tazmamart Berbers 9