Transcript PowerPoint Presentation - Bringing Volcanology into the City

25
Global Urban Population at Risk?
20
Cities of >100,000 Population
Ne ar Potentially Active Volcanoes
15
10
5
0
Number of Cities
Total Population at Risk — 41 147 000
(1990 Estimates)
100-250
250-500
500-750
750-1000
Population, in 1000's
1000-2000
>2000
Volcanic Eruption Phenomena and Hazards
“Understanding Volcanic Hazards”—Video
produced by the International Association of
Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior
•Ash fall
•Pyroclastic (ash) flows
•Lava Flows
•Lahars (volcanic mudflows)
•Earthquakes
•Tsunamis
•Volcanic Gases
Manila, Philippines
 Population, metro area—
10 million
 Two caldera complexes,
many smaller volcanoes
 Last large-scale
eruption—Taal, 5380
years ago
 Last smaller eruption—
Taal, 1977 AD
PhiVolcs
Manila, Philippines
Potential risks from:
Response and Planning
 Ash fall
 Pyroclastic (ash) flows
 Gases
 Lava flows (low
probability)
 Mapping of deposits from
past eruptions
 Geophysical monitoring
 Emergency response plans
(near Taal, but not Manila)
 Education (near Taal),
including the public and
students
Auckland, New Zealand
Kermode, 1992
•Population— ~1 million
•Located in a 360 km2 volcanic field; scoria cones and tuff rings
•49 volcanoes erupted during the last 140,000 years
•Last eruption about 1000 years ago
Auckland, New Zealand
Potential risks from:
Response and Planning
 Ash fall; ballistic ejecta
 Pyroclastic surges
 Gases
 Lava flows
 Potential hazards of
pyroclastic flows from
distant calderas
 Mapping of deposits from
past eruptions
 Geophysical monitoring
 Emergency response plans;
evacuation and infrastructure
protection
 Education including the
public and students
Quito, Ecuador
M. Hall
El Comercio
Population—1.1 million
Located below Guagua
Pichincha, a large
composite cone
(stratovolcano)
12 eruption periods
since 1533 AD.
Erupting now (since
October, 1999)
Quito, Ecuador
Response and Planning
Potential risks from:
 Ash fall; ballistic ejecta
 Pyroclastic flows
 Mudflows (lahars)
 Gases
 Mapping of deposits from
past eruptions
 Geophysical monitoring
 Emergency response plans;
evacuation, cleanup
 Education including the
public and students
 Especially good reporting on
eruptions in the newspapers
Seattle/Tacoma, Washington, USA
USGS, 1997
 Population, metro Seattle and
Tacoma—3.4 million
 Mount Rainier, large
composite cone (stratovolcano) east of the cities
 Over the last several
thousand years, lahars
(mudflows) have reached the
lowlands every 500-1000
years
 Minimal risk from Mt. Baker
and Glacier Peak volcanoes
(northeast of Seattle)
Seattle/Tacoma, Washington, USA
Response and Planning
 Mapping and dating of deposits
Potential risks from:
from past eruptions
 Lahars (mudflows) along  Geophysical monitoring,
valleys radiating from Mt.
especially seismic detection of
Rainier
collapse and flow monitors along
valleys
 Minimal risk from ash
fall; fallout usually to the  Emergency response plans for
east
communities along valleys;
warning systems
 Education—students and public
Napoli, Italy
US Army, 1944
Orsi et al., 1998
Napoli, Italy
Il Mattino, 1906
Population, metro area—
~3 million
Vesuvius; frequent
historic eruptions; last
eruption 1944 AD
Phlegrean Fields; two
calderas (last large
eruption 12,000 years
ago); multiple smaller
scoria cones and tuff
rings (last eruption-1538
AD); restless calderas
Napoli, Italy
Potential risks from:
 Earthquakes, uplift and
subsidence
 Ash fall and pumice fall
 Pyroclastic surges and
flows
 Lava Flows
 Gases
 Panic
Response and Planning
 Mapping and dating of deposits
from past eruptions; tectonic
framework
 Geophysical monitoring—
Seismic, GPS, Gases, Tilt,
Temperature variation, etc.
 Emergency response plans with
Civil Defense, City, Province
 Education—students and public;
museums; publications; public
lectures and TV presentations
Potential Problems Common to
All Volcano Cities
1. Controlling
panic
2. Identified
evacuation routes
6. Effects on
surface
transportation
7. Effects on air
transport
3. Handling
refugees
8. Effects on
electrical
infrastructure
4. Public Health
9. Effects on
communications
5. Public Security
10. Effects on
water supply
11. Stability of
buildings,
especially roofs
12. Effects on
sewage and
sewage treatment
13. Need for crisis
teams and
cooperation by the
media
14. A welleducated public
with regard to
volcanic hazards
15. Effective
communication of
the state of the
crisis
Levels of Preparat ion and Underst anding
2
1
• No analysis
of volcanic
risk
• Minimal geophysical and
ge ological dat a
and maps
•
Qualit at ive,
"best guess"
idea of volcanic
risk
3
4
• Int egrat ed
g e o p h y sic a l
monit oring
• GIS- and
p hy sic a l
p r oc e ssb a se d
hazard maps
• Collaborat ion
wit h civil
def ense, cit y
planners, inf rast ruct ure
a ut h o r it ie s
• Public
e d uc a t ion
• Quant it at ive
risk analysis
• Int egrat ed
dat a set s for
"real- t ime"
scenario
sim ula t io ns
( t raining,
planning, and
mit igat ion) and
vulnerabilit y
e st i m a t e s
Levels of Preparat ion and Underst anding
2
1
• No analysis
of volcanic
risk
• Minimal geophysical and
ge ological dat a
and maps
•
Qualit at ive,
"best guess"
idea of volcanic
risk
3
4
• Int egrat ed
g e o p h y sic a l
monit oring
• GIS- and
p h y sic a l
p r oc e ssb a se d
hazard maps
•
Collaborat ion
wit h civil
def ense, cit y
planne rs, inf rast ruct ure
a u t h o r it ie s
• Public
e d uc a t io n
• Quant it at ive
risk analysis
• Int egrat ed
dat a set s for
"real- t ime"
scenario
sim u la t io n s
( t raining,
planning, and
mit igat ion) and
v ulne rabilit y
e st im a t e s
The Goal for
all “Volcano
Cities” during
the 21st
Century
IDNDR—IAVCEI Decade Volcano
Projects-"Reducing Volcanic Disasters”
Leader—Chris Newhall
Decade Volcanoes Near Cities:
 Colima, Mexico (Colima)
 Merapi, Indonesia (Yogyakarta)
 Mount Rainier, USA (Seattle-Tacoma)
 Santa Maria, Guatemala (Quezaltenango)
 Taal, Philippines (Manila, Batangas)
 Sakurajima, Japan (Kagoshima City)
 Vesuvius, Italy (Napoli)
 Galeras, Colombia (Pasto)
 Teide, Spain (Santa Cruz de Tenerife)
 Avachinsky-Koriaksky, Russia (Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky
Disciplines Represented at “Cities on
Volcanoes” Workshops
 Volcanology
 Geographic Information
Systems
 Public Health
 Remote Sensing
 Risk Analysis
 Civil Engineering
 Hydrology
 Sociology & Psychology
 Civil Defense
 City Management
 City Planning
 Education
 The Media (Science
Reporters)
 City Officials
 Insurance Industry
 Infrastructure management
“Cities on Volcanoes-Roma/Napoli, Auckland, and Hilo
What should be done to reduce urban
volcanic risk in the next century?
 Follow the examples for integrated programs of observation,
planning and education established in several of the world’s
“volcano cities.” Use the potential for GeographicInformation System-based integrated analysis, with heavy
use of visualization to present results.
 Continue to raise the level of awareness of volcanic risk.
Use all available modern educational tools, including the
internet. Integrate disaster awareness into the culture (e.g., a
“national disaster day”). Annual training of civil defense
officials with “virtual reality” scenarios that require realtime responses.
What should be done to reduce urban volcanic risk in
the next century? (continued)
 Earth scientists working for the cities, with integrated
teams, which include environmental scientists, engineers,
planners, and social scientists to prepare science- and
culture-based emergency response plans. Frequent
workshops and meetings like “Cities on Volcanoes.”
 Provide the scientific basis for cost-benefit analyses of the
value of mitigation and disaster education to decisionmakers. Get the politicians and business people involved.
Who pays for urban disaster mitigation in the
“volcano cities?”
Traditional support




The Nation
The State
National and international disaster relief organizations
and NGO’s (always comes after an eruption; very little
goes toward mitigation)
The insurance industry (again, after the eruption)
Non-traditional support


The insurance industry (great interest in mitigation and
threat reduction)
The utilities (infrastructure)—mitigation, hardening
facilities
Volcanoes, integrated science, and cities in the
21st century—Suggestions for Professional
Geoscience Associations
 “GeoRisk” program for the International Unions of Geodesy
and Geophysics and Geological Sciences
 2000-2010—the proposed “Decade of Geosciences in the
Cities” with each nation picking a “decade city” for integrated
scientific study
 Urban geoscience curricula need to be encouraged at
universities
 Communicate the importance of geosciences to mayors, city
planners and engineers
 We (geoscientists) need to “come out of the woods” and into
the cities