Global Warming and Science

Transcript Global Warming and Science

Global Warming and Science

So far the balanced story of basic science is not getting through to the public There is at least one alternate hypothesis and a new theory

Fran Manns, Artesian Geological Research, Toronto

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What is Climate Change?

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Throughout time the Earth’s climate has varied



Since the base of the Pleistocene (1.8 M ya) there have been at least 30 glacial - interglacial cycles of 40,000 years to 100,000 years duration with interglacial periods warmer than now between them

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Sea level has risen 125 metres in the past 20,000 years. That 6 mm a year (arithmetic average).

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IPCC recently cited 2-3 mm a year – one might say it’s slowing down.

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The world’s coastal tribes have flood myths because they migrated around the world and lived upon the continental shelves

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Between glacial ages the climate varies due to external and internal influences – some result in cooling. Others allow the Earth to warm

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There are short-term cycles – e.g. ‘El Niño’, among others: for example - the 10 to 12 year long solar energy cycles, and cycles that relate to oscillation of Atlantic and Pacific ocean masses, and the Milankovich orbital cycle.

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Pennekamp Park – Key Largo SCOOP - “Reefs keep pace with 125 metre sea level rise”

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Sea Level Rise Is Slowing Down

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Athabasca Glacier has been receding since the Little Ice Age

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Moraine From the Little Ice Age

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Sea level Rising – not as fast as the Land!

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Earth’s crust floats on the mantle like ice in water Pushed down by ice – it is now rising Vivid examples of residual rebound are Scandinavia and central Canada

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The northern Baltic countries are rising nearly 1 metre per 100 years

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The Hudson Bay region still needs to rebound as much as 150 m. in order for isostatic equilibrium to be achieved

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Relax, the planet is fine…

The Wegman Report: Ad Hoc Committee on the Hockey Stick Global Climate Reconstruction, This report was authored by Edward J. Wegman, George Mason University, David W. Scott, Rice University, and Yasmin H. Said, The Johns Hopkins University

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Solar System Perspective

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What If?

 If The atmosphere did not absorb incoming heat, we would roast all day and freeze-dry at night and end up like sun-dried tomatoes 

Mercury - + 427 to – 172 ºC

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Mars - temperate zone soil + 27 to – 80 ºC

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Moon - + 107 to - 153 ºC

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What is the Greenhouse Effect?

It is an analogy to a garden greenhouse

    Certain gasses in the atmosphere are alleged to absorb heat energy and reduce the amount that escapes into space This ‘trapping’ of heat from our only source of warmth – the Sun – by the atmosphere is known as the ‘Greenhouse Effect’ The ‘greenhouse’ effect is a hypothesis This hypothesis (or the equally valid cloud cover hypothesis) gives us a global average temperature of +15 ° C rather than 18 ° C if we had no water vapour or CO 2 Artesian Geological Research 11

Important Facts

 Water vapour is the most important agent ~ 60 - 98% of the heat trapping is due to water vapour in the atmosphere (jury still out)  CO 2 and other minor gasses account for the remainder Artesian Geological Research 12

Contribution to the ‘Greenhouse Effect’ (including water vapour) http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html

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Is Global Warming Happening?

 Lets examine some very wiggly curves Death Valley California (not much urban growth here) Artesian Geological Research 14

Berkeley California

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No global warming here

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Blaine Washington

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New York NY

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Albany NY

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Michael Crichton - “State of Fear”, December 2004, Harper Collins

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New York city has a fever then why not Albany?

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Harrisburg Pa – Civil War gap

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Chicago Illinois

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Buffalo NY

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Key West Florida

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Global Warming

     Typically the majority of weather stations yield corrupt time series data Those weather stations are located where people are living. Thus, it is far from a random sample of the surface of the world, rather a measure of increasing human density Death Valley, Key West, and Blaine are far (remote) from urban centres and are likely more reliable Who knows about Berkeley? Albany vs.

New York City?

Since 1979, temperatures have been measured from satellites. Not surprisingly, these measurements give a much smaller warming.

Most of the graphs show little or no warming since 1950 Artesian Geological Research 25

      

Realistically

The planet is not warming in the dramatic manner the alarmists claim There are many other sites that demonstrate cooling I accept slow climate change but not the drama EARTH’S CLIMATE IS ALWAYS CHANGING I do not accept the popular ‘cause’ – CO 2 Why are the graphs so wiggly?

Because climate is not weather Artesian Geological Research 26

Niagara Falls NY – 1911

The next Ice Age predicted…

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Relax, the planet is fine…

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Thompson, Lonnie G. et al. (2006) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103, 10536-10543 Fig. 6. Climate reconstructions over the last two centuries [SIC : millennia].

Medieval warm period missing – Little Ice Age ???

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Kamél, 2003

  “In the past couple of years, new and better analysis of the Antarctic ice data, giving a better time resolution, have shown that

first

temperature rises, and

then

carbon dioxide levels increase. It is the temperature increase which causes the increase in CO 2 and not the other way around. The extra CO 2 could at most add a little extra warming to what is going on, but not even that is certain”.

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CO

increase in the atmosphere is a trailing phenomenon

Throughout the greatest temperature transitions experienced by the planet over the past 420,000 years, atmospheric CO 2 concentration has been proven to have been a follower, and not a leader, of climate change, rising from one to five thousand years

after

major increases in air temperature, and falling in similar manner throughout the course of the past four glacial/interglacial cycles (Mudelsee, M., 2001). Artesian Geological Research 31

CO 2 has inverse solubility in liquid

 Solubility of solids increases directly with temperature of the solvent  sugar dissolves more rapidly in hot water than cold  Carbon dioxide dissolves quickly in

cold

water and evolves rapidly out of

warm

water  Don’t shake your Doctor Pepper!

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Observations

 Warming precedes CO 2 increase - likely due to warming of the oceans  CO 2 has inverse solubility in liquid (warm your Guinness to see this effect)  CO 2 has a geometrically wasting greenhouse gas effect – more CO 2 – less effectiveness Artesian Geological Research 33

And…

 You might say, and ‘alarmists’ say every day, that the new anthropogenic CO 2 from the industrial revolution is tipping the climate over into uncontrollable heating… Artesian Geological Research 34

Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas

 The most variable component of the atmosphere is water in its various phases such as vapour, cloud droplets, and ice crystals.

Water vapour is the strongest greenhouse gas.

For these reasons and because the transition between the various phases absorb and release so much energy, water vapour is central to the climate and its variability and change.

Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

Section 1.1.2 The Climate System Artesian Geological Research 35

Absorption wavelength CO

vs. H

O

Three CO 2 absorption wavelengths at 1.4, 1.9 and 2.4 μm cannot compete with nine H 2 O bands

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Beck, Ernst-Georg, 2007: 180 Years of Atmospheric CO 2 Measurements by Chemical Means, Energy and Environment, Vol. 8 No.2 March.

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Beck, Ernst-Georg, 2007: 180 Years of Atmospheric CO 2 Measurements by Chemical Means, Energy and Environment, Vol. 8 No.2 March.

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UN IPCC 1740 – 2000

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CO2 data used by the UN IPCC has fatal flaws    Beck shows several instances when CO 2 higher than today at Mauna Loa was Most recently (1942) CO 2 exceeded 400 ppm Cynics would say the Beck (2007)data are regionalized variables and realists might say “Why use Mauna Loa, an active volcano that emits CO 2 ?” Artesian Geological Research 40

IPCC CO

data is F(Flawed)UBAR

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Downward forcing - all greenhouse gasses vs. increasing CO 2 content Willis Eschenbach

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CO

Feedback effect

Has a geometrically wasting property (Kamél, 2003)  Analogous to Venetian blinds and light  Adding a second and third set of Venetian blinds to the same window becomes decreasingly effective in blocking   outgoing light More CO 2 – less additional greenhouse effect Increase in CO 2  has less effect because Carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has exactly one important spectral line in the infrared part of the spectrum. This line is clearly saturated.  If you increase the number of CO 2 not much will happen molecules in the atmosphere, Artesian Geological Research 43

Well then what is the likely cause ?

Annual Sunspot Averages 1700 to 2003

200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1700 y = 0.1139x + 32.886

R 2 = 0.061

1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840

Year

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Artesian Geological Research 44

Look up! -

recognise the variation is in the fourth significant digit

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CO 2 vs. Friis-Christensen and Lassen (Science, 1991) "Dr. Tim Patterson after Friis-Christensen & Lassen, 1991"

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CO

and Temperature Anomaly

 Temperature rise preceded CO 2 to 1950 from 1890  CO 2 does not correlate with temperature anomaly from 1940 to 1970  Temperature rise does correlate with solar activity  CO 2 rise cannot be a cause of warming Artesian Geological Research 47

Friis-Christensen and Lassen (1991) Science Magazine

 95% correlation between sunspot peak frequency and the temperature anomaly  Sunspot curve, moreover, leads the temperature curve  But, correlation is not causation  What is the cause?

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The subtle part…

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It is not only the number of sunspots…

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It is not only the heat flux…

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It is not only the peak frequency…

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It’s all of those plus …

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Danish National Space Centre

 “It is already well-established that when cosmic rays, which are high-speed atomic particles originating in and release free electrons. exploded stars far away in the Milky Way , penetrate the Earth’s atmosphere, they produce substantial amounts of ions  …results from the Danish experiment show that the released electrons play a significant role in promoting the formation of building blocks for cloud condensation nuclei, on which water vapor condenses to make clouds. Hence, a causal mechanism by which cosmic rays can facilitate the production of clouds in Earth’s atmosphere has been experimentally identified for the first time .”  http://www.spacecenter.dk/publications/press-releases/getting-closer-to-the cosmic-connection-to-climate Artesian Geological Research 50

Danish Space Centre Theory

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‘

Active’ sun → enhanced magnetic and thermal flux = solar wind →

geomagnetic shield response →

less low-level clouds → less albedo (less heat reflected) → warmer climate Less active sun → reduced magnetic and thermal flux = reduced solar wind →

geomagnetic shield drops

→ galactic cosmic ray flux

→

more low-level clouds → More snow → more albedo (more heat reflected) → colder climate That's how the bulk of climate change works

Coupled with sunspot peak frequency

there are cycles of global warming and cooling like waves in the ocean When the waves are closely spaced, the planet warms Artesian Geological Research 51

Potentially

large sources of cosmic radiation - our star is one pixel Betelgeuse is 427 light years away; Antares 600 light years away.

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We are at the end of the 23rd Cycle since sunspots were first recorded

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Why, realistically, conspiracy theories aside…

Is CO 2  CO 2 the target? hypothesis has precedence (1897)?  Media propagation? – ‘Bottom Line’  Repetition of stale ‘science’ sells paper  Bandwagon ‘science’? - DDT and Malaria!

   Consensus ‘science’? - Copernicus and Galileo!

Publish or perish? - Mann and the Hockey Stick Research grants? – Tied to outcome

All of the above?

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Original Sin

Gracious no! Humans can only claim responsibility, if that's the word, for about 3.4% of carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere annually, the rest of it is all natural (IPCC, Woods Hole)  Anthropogenic is 0.11% of the global CO 2 cycle  Better term is ‘Anthropocentric’ implying narcissism of the environmental lobby groups  Was that not the Galileo-Copernican dilemma? www.CO2Science.org

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My hypothesis is volcanic

  Eruption of Krakatau, 1883 Key West time series – There has not been much warming of the Gulf of Mexico in modern time Artesian Geological Research 56

Skepticism or Objectivity

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Moving to higher ground.. Here is

An Inconvenient Truth

"A scientific hypothesis that survives experimental testing becomes a scientific theory"

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Take this test!

 http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Glob WarmTest/start.html

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Ad Hominem ICPP I ntercontinental C onspiracy P erhaps P olitical

    Main players will not debate  The world would watch  They have a weak argument The anthropocentric bloggers will not talk about scientific issues  Don’t have science knowledge  Flawed data  GIGO  Generalizations from particular  Polar ice and bears  Local weather  Hurricanes

Argumentum ad Hominem

too common ‘Precautionary Principle’ USED against all odds Artesian Geological Research 60

Albert Einstein said: " If you succeed in using the nuclear physical findings for peaceful purposes, it will open the way to a new paradise".

Francis T. Manns, Ph.D., P.Geo. (Ontario) [email protected]

323 Blantyre Avenue Toronto Ontario M1N 2S6 Canada 416-698-6291 Artesian Geological Research 61

Key References

Beck, Ernst-Georg, 2007: 180 Years of Atmospheric CO2 Gas Analyses by Chemical Methods, Energy and Environment, Vol. 18, No. 2 2007.

Friis-Christensen, E. and K. Lassen, 1991:

Length of the Solar Cycle - an indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate,

Science,

New Series, Vol. 254, No. 5032, Nov. 1, 1991, pp.698-700.

Svensmark, Henrik, Jens Olaf P. Pedersen, Nigel D. Marsh, Martin B. Enghoff, and Ulrik I. Uggerhoj, 2006:

Experimental evidence for the role of ions in particle nucleation under atmospheric conditions, Proceedings of the Royal Society (A),

Proc. R Soc. A

, doi:10.1098/rspa.20061773. Published online.

Jaworoski, Zbigniew, 2007: CO2: the Greatest Scientific Scandal of Our Time, EIR Science, 16 March 2007.

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References

Temperature Lars Kamél, 2003:

pseudo science? Temperature measurements: Is climate research Swedish original text from June, English translation from Nov, 2003, a few updates made since. http://www.astro.uu.se/~l/noworry.htm

United States Historical Climatology Network dataset

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/ushcn/ushcn.html

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References

CO2 as plant food Eamus, D. 1996:

Responses of field grown trees to CO 2 enrichment. Commonwealth Forestry Review 75: 39-47.

Eklundh, L. and Olsson, L. 2003:

Vegetation index trends for the African Sahel 1982-1999. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10.1029/2002GL016772.

Saxe, H., Ellsworth, D.S. and Heath, J. 1998:

forest functioning in an enriched CO Phytologist 139: 395-436.

2 Tree and atmosphere. New Artesian Geological Research 64

References

CO 2 Saturation Elachi, Charles, 1987:

Introduction to the Physics and Techniques of Remote Sensing (John Wiley & Sons)

Kamél, Lars, 2003:

Why we don't have to worry about CO 2 , Department of Astronomy and Space Physics, Uppsala, Sweden http://www.astro.uu.se/~l/noworry.htm

CO 2 Trailing effect Mudelsee, M., 2001:

The phase relations among atmospheric CO 2 content, temperature and global ice volume over the past 420 ka. Quaternary Science Reviews 20: 583-589.

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Acknowledgements

   Jim Tilsley Les Manns Richard Bedell Artesian Geological Research 67

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Global Warming and Science

Transcript Global Warming and Science