Transcript Exit, Voice or Accommodation?
White Flight from London?
Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College, University of London [email protected]
White Flight?
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• • • The permission of the Office for National Statistics to use the Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged, as is the help provided by staff of the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (CeLSIUS). CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme (Award Ref: ES/K000365/1). The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data.
Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.
The results presented are based on a test version of the LS database incorporating 2011 Census data. Figures may be subject to change when the final version of this database is released in November 2013.
Net Migration from London by Ethnicity: with rest of England & Wales, 1971-2011 1971-1981 1981-1991 1991-2001 2001-11 White British
In
3,030 3,724 3,566 2,953
Net Migration to London from Rest of England and Wales
Out
7,495
Net
-4,465
% Change
-14.7% 7,208 7,402 6,962 -3,484 -3,836 -4,009 -11.0% -11.0% -13.4%
1971-1981 1981-1991 1991-2001 2001-11 White British
-14.7% -11.0% -11.0% -13.4%
1971-1981 1981-1991 1991-2001 2001-11 Minority
1.0% 2.7% -1.9% -4.1%
WB Working/ Middle Class
-14.0% -12.0% -12.7% -15.3%
WB Professional
-11.2% -10.0% -6.4% -12.4%
WB with Children
-21.9% -13.1% -15.1% -19.6%
WB Twenties
-2.1% 11.7% 27.7% 24.0%
Minority Working/ Middle Class
2.1% 2.3% -1.5% -4.1%
Minority Professional
1.9% 3.1% -1.3% -3.8%
Minority with Children
0.7% 3.3% -3.6% -6.9%
Minority Twenties
9.6% 11.0% 2.3% 0.5%
London: Net Migration & Natural Increase, 1840-1900
20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% 1840s 1850s 1860s 1870s 1880s 1890s -5,0% -10,0% -15,0% Net Migration with rest of UK Natural Increase/Population
London Population, 1841-2011
8 173 941 7 172 036 6 679 699 6 506 889 5 571 968 4 713 441 3 840 595 3 188 485 2 651 939 2 207 653
London's Population by Birthplace, 1851-2011
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 UK Born Irish Born Born Outside British Isles
Into or out of London – Statistical Models
• • • • • English, UK-born predicts move out White: in mixed ethnic house, degree, young, foreign-born predicts stayer.
20% of white British in Inner London live in mixed ethnicity households
Higher education/occupation, foreign-born predicts move to London from elsewhere in UK Besides distance moved, heavily associated with
moves toward/away from diverse wards
White British
Initial White British Composition and White British Change, by ward, London, 2001-11 0 20 40 60 % White British 2001 80 100
0 20 40 60 minority share 1991 (%) 80
London Change, 1991-2011, wards 0 20 40 60 minority share 1991 (%) 80 0 20 40 60 Minority share 1991 (%) 80 0 2 4 6 Bangladeshi share 1991 (%) 8 10 0 2 4 6 Pakistani share 1991 (%) 8 10
London Ethnic Residential Trends
• • • Individual ethnic minority groups spread out from areas of concentration Minorities as a whole mildly leave wards of minority concentration White British move toward White British wards
Quintiles (ONS LS 2011)
2011 Diverse fifth of Wards Homogeneous four fifths of Wards White British net outflow Minority net outflow
40.7% Minority 4.9% Minority
2001 1991
27.8% Minority 2.4% Minority 19.8% Minority 1.5% Minority
Smart Census Data Plotter
file:///C:/1-Data/1-1-work/1-Research/1-1-Projects/1 white%20flight/Models/UK/Ridgway/dependent%20children/5 dplot_fromtxt_quick%20start.swf
[Class; Dependent Children v 20s; Mixed Ethnicity House; English; Tenure] http://www.smartcensus.org.uk/index.php?option=com_wrapp er&view=wrapper&Itemid=611 [time permitting, to show deprivation-density-diversity link]
Predicted probabilities of move towards/away from diversity
• • • •
Toward v Away from Diversity – Statistical Models
Ethnicity matters: white British move from diversity, minorities to diversity, individual minorities neutral Higher educated/occupations move to diverse wards rather than away, young, students as well.
Minorities leave diversity when: in mixed-race house, English; toward diversity: in whiter ward.
White British leave diversity when: in more diverse ward, with children, working/middle class more than Professionals; Toward diversity: in mixed-ethnicity house, renter, 20s.
Summary
• • • • • London has historic outmigration to rest of UK Immigration replaces natural increase post-WWII, esp. post-1997 Minorities buck traditional outflow pattern, albeit changing since 1991 Minorities move out of own-group areas and lily white areas to mixed areas White British prefer 90+% white areas, except in their 20s
White Flight ?
• • • Whites who are English v. British/Celtic not significant (ONS LS & BHPS-Understanding Society) Whites who are Tory v Labour/Liberal not significant (BHPS-UKHLS) Ergo (from BHPS-UKHLS): – Social conservative v liberal on gays/women’s roles – high patriotism v. cosmopolitanism – tabloid v broadsheet
White Flight?: Yougov-ESRC-BBK Survey, August 2013
Moved To Moved To More Diverse Whiter Ward past 10 yrs Ward past 10 yrs
Sample
Not White British White British
Total 53% 62% 60% 47% 38% 40% 47 239 286
Comfort with spouse of different race among ward movers, White British only (Yougov/ESRC survey)
To Whiter To Diverse Sample very comfortable 61% fairly comfortable 67% neither comfortable n 57% fairly uncomfortable 64%
very uncomfortable
don't know Total
76%
58% 63% 39% 33% 43% 36%
24%
42% 37% 83 33 46 11 25 24 222
Why do some neighbourhoods appeal to whites more than minorities?
Divergent cultural appeal of areas; Relative prestige of white British culture?
Potential Policy Implications
• • Housing: retain white British population (social housing, housebuilding, benefits) Schooling: yes to mixed catchment, but sensitivity to white tipping