White Flight from London?

Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College, University of London [email protected]

White Flight?

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• • • The permission of the Office for National Statistics to use the Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged, as is the help provided by staff of the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (CeLSIUS). CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme (Award Ref: ES/K000365/1). The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data.

Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

The results presented are based on a test version of the LS database incorporating 2011 Census data. Figures may be subject to change when the final version of this database is released in November 2013.

Net Migration from London by Ethnicity: with rest of England & Wales, 1971-2011 1971-1981 1981-1991 1991-2001 2001-11 White British

In

3,030 3,724 3,566 2,953

Net Migration to London from Rest of England and Wales

Out

7,495

Net

-4,465

% Change

-14.7% 7,208 7,402 6,962 -3,484 -3,836 -4,009 -11.0% -11.0% -13.4%

1971-1981 1981-1991 1991-2001 2001-11 White British

-14.7% -11.0% -11.0% -13.4%

1971-1981 1981-1991 1991-2001 2001-11 Minority

1.0% 2.7% -1.9% -4.1%

WB Working/ Middle Class

-14.0% -12.0% -12.7% -15.3%

WB Professional

-11.2% -10.0% -6.4% -12.4%

WB with Children

-21.9% -13.1% -15.1% -19.6%

WB Twenties

-2.1% 11.7% 27.7% 24.0%

Minority Working/ Middle Class

2.1% 2.3% -1.5% -4.1%

Minority Professional

1.9% 3.1% -1.3% -3.8%

Minority with Children

0.7% 3.3% -3.6% -6.9%

Minority Twenties

9.6% 11.0% 2.3% 0.5%

London: Net Migration & Natural Increase, 1840-1900

20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% 1840s 1850s 1860s 1870s 1880s 1890s -5,0% -10,0% -15,0% Net Migration with rest of UK Natural Increase/Population

London Population, 1841-2011

8 173 941 7 172 036 6 679 699 6 506 889 5 571 968 4 713 441 3 840 595 3 188 485 2 651 939 2 207 653

London's Population by Birthplace, 1851-2011

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 UK Born Irish Born Born Outside British Isles

Into or out of London – Statistical Models

• • • • • English, UK-born predicts move out White: in mixed ethnic house, degree, young, foreign-born predicts stayer.

20% of white British in Inner London live in mixed ethnicity households

Higher education/occupation, foreign-born predicts move to London from elsewhere in UK Besides distance moved, heavily associated with

moves toward/away from diverse wards

White British

Initial White British Composition and White British Change, by ward, London, 2001-11 0 20 40 60 % White British 2001 80 100

0 20 40 60 minority share 1991 (%) 80

London Change, 1991-2011, wards 0 20 40 60 minority share 1991 (%) 80 0 20 40 60 Minority share 1991 (%) 80 0 2 4 6 Bangladeshi share 1991 (%) 8 10 0 2 4 6 Pakistani share 1991 (%) 8 10

London Ethnic Residential Trends

• • • Individual ethnic minority groups spread out from areas of concentration Minorities as a whole mildly leave wards of minority concentration White British move toward White British wards

Quintiles (ONS LS 2011)

2011 Diverse fifth of Wards Homogeneous four fifths of Wards White British net outflow Minority net outflow

40.7% Minority 4.9% Minority

2001 1991

27.8% Minority 2.4% Minority 19.8% Minority 1.5% Minority

Smart Census Data Plotter

file:///C:/1-Data/1-1-work/1-Research/1-1-Projects/1 white%20flight/Models/UK/Ridgway/dependent%20children/5 dplot_fromtxt_quick%20start.swf

[Class; Dependent Children v 20s; Mixed Ethnicity House; English; Tenure] http://www.smartcensus.org.uk/index.php?option=com_wrapp er&view=wrapper&Itemid=611 [time permitting, to show deprivation-density-diversity link]

Predicted probabilities of move towards/away from diversity

• • • •

Toward v Away from Diversity – Statistical Models

Ethnicity matters: white British move from diversity, minorities to diversity, individual minorities neutral Higher educated/occupations move to diverse wards rather than away, young, students as well.

Minorities leave diversity when: in mixed-race house, English; toward diversity: in whiter ward.

White British leave diversity when: in more diverse ward, with children, working/middle class more than Professionals; Toward diversity: in mixed-ethnicity house, renter, 20s.

Summary

• • • • • London has historic outmigration to rest of UK Immigration replaces natural increase post-WWII, esp. post-1997 Minorities buck traditional outflow pattern, albeit changing since 1991 Minorities move out of own-group areas and lily white areas to mixed areas White British prefer 90+% white areas, except in their 20s

White Flight ?

• • • Whites who are English v. British/Celtic not significant (ONS LS & BHPS-Understanding Society) Whites who are Tory v Labour/Liberal not significant (BHPS-UKHLS) Ergo (from BHPS-UKHLS): – Social conservative v liberal on gays/women’s roles – high patriotism v. cosmopolitanism – tabloid v broadsheet

White Flight?: Yougov-ESRC-BBK Survey, August 2013

Moved To Moved To More Diverse Whiter Ward past 10 yrs Ward past 10 yrs

Sample

Not White British White British

Total 53% 62% 60% 47% 38% 40% 47 239 286

Comfort with spouse of different race among ward movers, White British only (Yougov/ESRC survey)

To Whiter To Diverse Sample very comfortable 61% fairly comfortable 67% neither comfortable n 57% fairly uncomfortable 64%

very uncomfortable

don't know Total

76%

58% 63% 39% 33% 43% 36%

24%

42% 37% 83 33 46 11 25 24 222

Why do some neighbourhoods appeal to whites more than minorities?

Divergent cultural appeal of areas; Relative prestige of white British culture?

Potential Policy Implications

• • Housing: retain white British population (social housing, housebuilding, benefits) Schooling: yes to mixed catchment, but sensitivity to white tipping