Transcript Slide 1

Investing out of the crisis:
the education dynamic
Futures Forum
UNESCO Paris
2 March 2009
Nicholas Burnett
Assistant Director-General for Education,
UNESCO
Outline at a glance
 State of Education in the World
 Likely Impact of the Crisis
 Strategic Directions
 Keep a vision
 Protect gains made
 Reaffirm right to education
 Reaffirm centrality of education for growth
 Monitor situation
 Ensure policies open opportunities, not the opposite
 Exploit short-term synergies between investing in education and
economic recovery
1
Major education trends
Enrolment increases at all levels in developing countries but large global and
national disparities risk being accentuated

Impressive increase in primary school enrolments in Africa and South Asia – much more
rapid than in 1990s; progress towards gender parity

Impact of public policies: school fee abolition, school construction in underserved areas,
teacher recruitment

In a majority of countries with data, national spending on education has increased since
2000, international aid has supported progress

Increasing demand for secondary education but enrolments still much lower than at primary
level in most developing regions

Rapid growth in tertiary education
→But:
776 million adults lack basic literacy skills; 75 million children still out of school
Low learning achievement in many developing countries
2
Universal primary education: rapid progress
1991
1999
2006
Sub-Saharan Africa
Arab States
 Some 690 million children in primary school
worldwide
South/West Asia
Central Asia
 Sharp rise in enrolment rates in Africa and
South and West Asia
Central/Eastern Europe
 40 million more children in primary school
in 2006 than in 1999
East Asia/Pacific
Latin America/Caribbean
 Free tuition, school construction,
community campaigns and subsidies
to the poorest families have increased access
North America/Western
Europe
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
NER in primary education (%)
Source: EFA Global Monitoring Report 2009
3
Secondary education: rising demand but limited access
1999
Sub-Saharan Africa
2006
South/West Asia
Arab States
• Some 513 million
students enrolled
worldwide
• Enrolments remain low
in Africa and South/West
Asia
East Asia/Pacific
Latin America/Caribbean
•In many developing
countries, attendance
rates lower among
poorer households
Central/Eastern Europe
Central Asia
North America/Western
Europe
0
20
40
60
80 100
NER in secondary education (%)
Source: EFA Global Monitoring Report 2009
4
Tertiary education: increasing student numbers
but large global disparities 1999
2006
Sub-Saharan Africa
 Worldwide some 144 million students
were enrolled in tertiary education in 2006,
51 million more than in 1999
South/West Asia
Arab States
East Asia/Pacific
 A large majority of new places were
created in developing countries
Central Asia
Latin America/Caribbean
Central/Eastern Europe
North America/Western
Europe
0
20
40
60
80
GER in tertiary education (%)
Source: EFA Global Monitoring Report 2009
5
Children who never make it to school
Millions of children
2006
75 million children out
of school in 2006
• nearly half of these in
sub-Saharan Africa
alone
• 55% girls - who are
more likely never to
have been in school
than boys
2006
Nigeria
8.1
7.6
India
7.2
0.6
Pakistan
6.8
3.7
Ethiopia
3.7
1.1
Bangladesh
Kenya
Niger
1.4
0.3
1.4
0.9
1.2
0.9
Burkina Faso
Ghana
Mozambique
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.7
1.0
0.3
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.3
0.8
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.2
Philippines
Yemen
Mali
Turkey
Source: EFA Global Monitoring Report 2009
2015
Brazil
Senegal
Iraq
2015
at least 29 million children
out of school in 2015
• Partial projections in 134
countries (which
represent two-thirds of
out-of-school children in
2006)
• Projections made before
the crisis
• Nigeria and Pakistan
together represent about
one-third of the out-ofschool population
6
100
 Low average level of learning in
many developing countries
relative to developed countries
 PISA assessments place over 60%
of children in Brazil and
Indonesia in the lowest score
quintile
 Global learning divide mirrored
by social-economic divide within
countries
High achievement
80
60
40
20
0
20
40
60
Source: EFA Global Monitoring Report 2009
Finland
Japan
United Kingdom
At or above level 5
Levels 2 to 4
At or below level 1
France
Thailand
Mexico
Brazil
Indonesia
Kyrgyzstan
100
Chile
Low achievement
80
Argentina
Share of students (%)
Education quality: learning gaps
7
Grade attainment: a wealth gap
100
Latin America and
Caribbean, average
OECD countries (Finland)
LAC, Richest 20%
South and West Asia,
average
SWA, Richest 20%
80
Sub-Saharan Africa,
average
Survival to grade (%)
SSA, Richest 20%
60
Children in the poorest
20% of households
more likely to drop
out that those in the
richest 20%
LAC, Poorest 20%
40
SSA, Poorest 20%
SWA, Poorest 20%
Grade attainment by wealth quintile in sub-Saharan Africa,
South and West Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean
20
Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9
8
The global literacy challenge
There were 776 million illiterate adults in 2006, two-thirds were women.
This represents 16% of the global adult population
Projected number of adult illiterates (age 15+), by gender and region, 2015

or
= about 5 million adult illiterates
Women
Projections for 2015:
at least 700 million
illiterate adults
Men
 Projections made before
the crisis

Literacy gap: Adult
literacy rates can vary up
to 40 percentage points
between the richest and
poorest households
within a given country.
South and West Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: EFA Global Monitoring Report 2009
East Asia/Pacific
Arab States
Latin America/Caribbean
9
What made all this possible?
 Political commitment: increased understanding of importance of
education for growth and poverty reduction
- Education for All Goals - Dakar 2000
- Millennium Development Goals - 2000
- Enhanced recognition of higher education’s role
 Sustained economic growth
 At the same time:
- Lack of political commitment to address rising inequalities
- Neglect of literacy programs for youth and adults
10
Lessons from 1990s crises: high human costs
No clear cut pattern but most studies show:

Reductions in social spending on health and education

Higher child mortality rates, increase in malnutrition

Reduced ability of households to contribute to schooling costs

Decrease in school enrolments in low-income countries

Increase in child labour

In middle- and high-income countries possible increase in secondary and tertiary s
enrolments due to lack of job opportunities

Reduced aid flows: 1% drop in donor-country GDP associated with 1% drop in aid
flows
11
Lessons from the East Asia crisis
Education played an important role in shaping the development in East Asian countries.
A UNESCO/IIEP regional project showed that the 1998 crisis led to:
 Cuts in education budgets (Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines)
 Higher vulnerability of women to job losses
 Higher demand for public provision of education, shift of students away from private
schools
 Withdrawal of older children from school; delayed entry of youngest
 Decline in enrolment in junior secondary
 Higher drop out in private universities, increased enrolment in public universities
 Student nationals return from abroad to enter local universities
→ Responses:
-Governments set up social safety net schemes including block transfers to families to keep children
in school and scholarship programs
-Singapore announced desire to remain competitive and pledged not to cut R & D budget
12
Drop in aid from donor countries hit by financial
crises in 90s (Japan)
Source: Roodman (2008), History Says Financial Crisis Will Suppress Aid
13
Drop in aid from donor countries hit by financial
crises in 90s (Scandinavia)
Source: Roodman (2008), History Says Financial Crisis Will Suppress Aid
14
What’s different from the 1930s?
Today’s crisis is compared in magnitude to the 1929 crash.
But it has happened in a very different global context
 Global crisis in a globalized world
 Rapid decline follows period of prolonged growth
 A permanent decline in manufacturing?
 Migration trends reversing
 Aid dependency of many low-income countries
 Multilateral institutions exist, however inadequate
 Education now an established right - Universal Declaration of Human
Rights
15
Outline Reminder
 State of Education in the World
 Likely Impact of the Crisis
 Strategic Directions
 Keep a Vision
 Protect gains made
 Reaffirm right to education
 Reaffirm centrality of education for growth
 Monitor situation
 Ensure policies open opportunities, not opposite
 Exploit short-term synergies between investing in education and
economic recovery
16
Keeping a global, long-term vision
“Choosing a type of education means choosing a type of society”
 Reducing poverty at a time when one billion people live under $1 a
day
 Social justice at a time of growing inequality within economies and
societies
 Peace at a time of intolerance and conflict within countries
 Sustainable societies at a time of global warming and climate change
 Adapting to the unknown at a time of economic uncertainty and
continued technological advances
17
Protect gains made
 Counter-cyclical investment:
- protect or increase public spending on education
(e.g. Obama federal program but U.S. state budgets have to be balanced)
 Maintain and increase aid commitments
 Special measures to help poorest
 Increase efficiency and reduce corruption
18
Reaffirm the right to education
 Universal Declaration of Human Rights
 Underpins all UNESCO’s work in education
 Underpins Education for All
 Rights always at risk during downturns
19
Reaffirm the centrality of education
Knowledge, skills and values to promote informed choices
and a more sustainable future
Education is a catalyst for development. It:
• Contributes to economic growth
• Reduces poverty
• Improves health, nutrition, income and livelihoods
• Promotes citizenship and democratic participation
• Is a condition for achieving all the Millennium Development Goals
20
Learning and skills for growth
Powerful evidence exists on the benefits of education for raising incomes,
promoting growth and improving health
 Additional year of schooling lifts average annual GDP growth by 0.37%
(study in 50 countries); lifts earnings by 10%
 Girls’ education lowers infant and child mortality rates, reduces fertility
rates, promotes per capita income growth
 Each additional year of education completed by a mother translates into
her children remaining longer in school
 Education quality has an impact on economic returns for households
(International Adult Literacy Survey)
→ But:
-Inequality in education is a cause of wider income inequalities
-Low skilled workers have even greater problems in finding jobs (OECD)
-Wage gaps have widened between people with tertiary education and those at
lower attainment levels (ADB, 2007)
21
Monitor education situation
 Standard reporting (UIS, OECD) high quality but not timely
 Have launched quick and dirty UNESCO survey on impact of
crisis on education
 Need to work with UIS and other partners to rapidly establish
monitoring mechanism
 Could be long-term gain in statistical reporting as a result
22
Ensure policies open opportunities, not the opposite:
doing more than business as usual

Address inequalities through focus on most vulnerable and disadvantaged

Ensure relevance of learning to personal, social and economic needs

Improve education quality: a new deal for teachers

Link adult illiteracy to micro-finance, income-generation and life skills

Upgrade vocational education and skills training for youth and adults to help stem
youth unemployment

Integrate education into poverty-reduction strategies

Advocate for increased aid levels and more effective aid
23
Acting on exclusion’s causes
 Poverty
 Child Labour
 Gender
 Disability
 Ethnic belonging, linguistic minority
 Living in isolated/remote areas
 Conflict and post-conflict situations, natural
disasters
24
Acting early pays off
‘It is a rare public policy initiative that promotes fairness and social justice and
at the same time promotes productivity in the economy and in society at large.
Investing in disadvantaged young children is such a policy.’
James Heckman, Nobel economics laureate

Most rigorous studies on benefits come from developed countries

U.S. High/Scope Perry study of low-income African-American children
-higher IQ at age 5
-enhanced success at school
-higher earning at age 40

High returns to programmes in India, Egypt, Colombia, Bolivia; returns greatest for poorest
and most disadvantaged children

Programmes have impact on nutrition, health, cognitive development and school
achievement of disadvantaged children
25
Safety nets, targeting and social protection
Targeted approaches existed before the crisis. Such programs must be maintained
and expanded with safeguards to ensure that they reach the right beneficiaries

Conditional cash transfers
-Mexico’s Progresa/Oportunidades reaches over 5 million children
-Brazil’s Bolsa Escola reaches over 16 million children
-South Africa’s support program improved nutrition for children

School grants (Kenya, Ghana, Tanzania) to cover losses from abolition of school
fees

National financing formulas taking into account poverty, education and health
indicators

Measures to improve efficiency and reduce corruption
26
A global teacher shortage
An estimated 18 million additional teachers are needed to achieve universal
primary education by 2015
Region
Additional necessary
Additional number of Total additional number
teacher posts (in 000s)
teachers (in 000s)
of teachers needed (in
to be created to reach
needed to compensate 000s) to meet attrition
Universal Primary
for attrition
and UPE needs
education by 2015
Arab States
479
1361
1840
Central Eastern Europe and Central Asia
34
832
865
East Asia and the Pacific
32
3944
3976
Latin America and the Carribean
21
1597
1618
North America and Western Europe
89
2369
2458
South and West Asia
414
3169
3583
Sub-Saharan Africa
1644
2140
3784
World
2713
15411
18124
→ Probable gap at secondary level with increasing participation
27
Forging a new deal for teachers
Demand for education is there. Enrolments will continue to rise in developing regions.
How can we make teaching the profession of the future?

Key policy issues:
-explore different training models /use of ICTs
-different entry points throughout life into teaching profession
-improving wages and status of teachers
-incentives to work in difficult circumstances
-rewards, recognition and professional development opportunities

Teachers also impart values: learning to live together, sustainable development
Launch of new international Task Force on Teachers for Education for All
Initiative in sub-Saharan Africa (TTISSA) to improve national teacher policies
28
Rethinking technical and vocational education
Youth unemployment is high in many developing countries. This is a time to find a
more flexible and suited match between the worlds of work and learning
 Education for work: what competences and skills?
 Skills for employability
 Entrepreneurial education
 New UNESCO TVET strategy is an opportunity to provide policy
guidance to governments and donors
29
Participation, research and social responsibility
in higher education
A vital contribution to prosperity
 Participation rates of 40 to 50% considered vital for economic growth – but 5%
Africa, 11% in South and West Asia, 22% in Arab States, 25% in Asia-Pacific
 Inclusion critical for future
 Reservoir of future professional talent
 Importance of quality assurance, accreditation and recognitition of qualifications in
context of diversification, growth of cross-border providers and ICTs
 Social responsibility: knowledge and skills to address social, economic and scientific
issues – climate change, agricultural development, curriculum development
 Promotion of regional spaces for research and knowledge-sharing
 Diversifying funding base, ensuring autonomy and accountability
Paris, France: 5-8 July 2009
‘The New Dynamics of Higher Education and Research for Societal Change and Development’
World Conference on Higher Education
30
Promote lifelong learning
Scale up relevant literacy and skills
programmes for youth and adults
-More flexible and open formal and non-formal learning
-Link literacy programs to micro-finance schemes and life skills
-Partnerships /bridges with world of work and non-state sector
-Relevant curricula and use of ICTs
-Development of lifelong learning policies
Belém, Brazil: 19-22 May 2009
‘Learning and Living for a Viable Future: the Power of Adult Learning’
CONFINTEA VI - Sixth International Conference on Adult Education
31
More aid and better governance
– Donors are not delivering on commitments
• Donors falling short of 2010 commitments: meeting these requires additional
US$30 billion
• In 2006: aid to basic education US$5.1bn (same as 2004)
• Aid to basic education in low income countries: US$3.8bn but US$11bn needed
annually to meet EFA goals
11,3
Constant 2006 US$ billion
11,0
9,4
8,5
8,3
7,3
6,6
7,0
2,8
2,8
3,0
1999
2000
2001
Key questions:
Targeting:
is aid going to the right places?
Effectiveness:
is aid making a difference?
3,0
2002
4,1
2003
Total aid to basic education
5,2
2004
3,7
2005
5,1
Alignment:
attuned to national priorities?
2006
Total aid to education
34
The risks of a short-term vision
 Losing gains
 Increasing poverty
 Increasing inequalities
 Increasing social tensions
 Increasing mismatch between skills and market
35
Short-Term Synergies
 Opportunities for Countercyclical spending:
 Inclusion as a guiding principle
 Teachers: a public employment niche
 Improving Technical and Vocational Education,
especially entrepreneurial education
36
To sum up, key responses
Policies to promote Inclusion and counter further Exclusion
 Monitor the Impact of the Crisis
 Advocate for Education
-Education as a Right
-Education for Growth
-Maintain or increase spending
-Maintain or increase aid
 Pro-poor policies for Education
-Emphasize Inclusion
-Invest in Teachers
-Link between education, health, gender, skills training,
employment and poverty reduction
37
“Everyone has the right to education”
Article 26, Universal Declaration of Human Rights
www.unesco.org/education
www.efareport.unesco.org
38