Transcript Slide 1

TRENDS AND CHALLENGES IN
ASIA AND THE PACIFIC
Sukti Dasgupta
Senior Economist | ILO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Decent Work for All
ASIAN DECENT WORK DECADE 2006-2015
Overview

Key regional trends and challenges

Looking forward: Areas for action
Strong economic growth…
Real GDP annual average growth, 2002-07 and 2008-13 (%)

14.0
CAGR 2002-07
CAGR 2008-13
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
… despite deceleration post global crisis, and poor growth in
advanced countries.
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (Nov. 2014).
…growing middle class…

Middle class employment by Asia-Pacific subregions, 1991 and 2011 (000s
& %)
600
70
60
500
50
400
40
300
30
200
20
100
10
0
0
1991
2011
East Asia
1991
2011
1991
SE Asia and Pacific
Middle class, million (left axis)
2011
South Asia
Middle class, % total (right axis)
Note: Middle class defined as $4 and above.
Source: Kapsos, S. and E. Bourmpoula: Employment and Economic Class in the Developing World, ILO Research Paper No 6 (Geneva, ILO, 2013).
…but income inequality persists

Income share of the top and bottom deciles, latest available year (%)
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Top decile
Bottom decile
… which calls for enhanced wage setting mechanisms, social
dialogue and labour legislation.
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (Nov. 2014).
Mixed trends in employment growth…

Employment growth, 2013-14 (000s & %)
2 000
1 750
8
Change in 000s (left axis)
Change in % (right axis)
7
1 500
6
1 250
5
1 000
4
750
3
500
2
250
1
0
0
- 250
-1
- 500
-2
- 750
-3
Note: Non-seasonally adjusted; ages 15+, except Macau, China (ages 16+).
Source: ILO estimates based on labour force survey data from national statistical offices.
…relatively low unemployment rates…

Total and youth unemployment rates, 2014 (%)
Sri Lanka (Q1)
Indonesia (May)
Philippines (July)
Australia (Oct.)
New Zealand (Sep.)
Taiwan, China (Sep.)
Hong Kong, China (Sep.)
Korea, Rep. of (Oct.)
Singapore (Q2)
Macau, China (Q3)
Japan (Sep.)
Total
Viet Nam (Q2)
Youth
Thailand (Q2)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
… but youth unemployment rates are much higher. Young people
are 2 to 5 times more likely to be unemployed than adults.
Note: Youth ages 15-24, except in Macau (China) (16-24) and Singapore (15-29).
Source: ILO estimates based on labour force survey data from national statistical offices.
…and poor job quality pervasive…

Vulnerable employment rate, 2013 and 2014 (%)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Philippines (July)
Sri Lanka (Q1)
Thailand (Q3)
2013
Indonesia (Aug.)
Viet Nam (Q3)
2014
… with high incidence of vulnerable employment.
Note: Vulnerable employment is defined as own-account and contributing family workers.
Source: ILO estimates based on labour force survey data from national statistical offices.
…agricultural employment still high…
Agriculture as a share of total employment, latest available year (%)

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Source: ILO: KILM, 8th Edition.
…informality is a challenge…

Informal employment as a share of non-agricultural employment, latest
available year (%)
Nepal
India
Pakistan
Indonesia
Philippines
Viet Nam
Sri Lanka
Thailand
China
0
20
40
60
80
100
…indicating poor working conditions, with limited job security,
legal and social protection and representation.
Note: Indonesia includes only Banten and Yogyakarta; Sri Lanka excludes the Northern Province; China covers six urban areas.
Source: ILO: Statistical update on employment in the informal economy (Geneva, June 2012); National statistical offices.
…persistent working poverty…

Working poverty and share of total employment (million & %)
600
90
80
500
70
400
60
50
300
40
200
30
20
100
10
0
0
1991
2014
East Asia
1991
2014
South-East Asia and the Pacific
Total working poor in millions (left axis)
1991
2014
South Asia
Share of working poor in total employment, in % (right axis)
… with many workers living on less than $2 per day.
Note: Working poverty defined as workers living on less than $2 per day.
Source: October 2013p update of the model in: Kapsos, S. and E. Bourmpoula (2013p). Employment and Economic Class in the Developing World. ILO Research Paper No 6; ILO - Trends Econometric Models,
October 2013p.
…gender disparities widespread…

Labour force participation rates, latest available year (%)
80
60
40
20
0
Male-female gap (percentage points)
Female LFPR (%)
…regarding participation, equal pay and access to wage
employment, among others.
Source: National statistical offices; ILO: KILM, 8th Edition.
…and wages remain low…

Average monthly wages, latest year available (US$)
5,500
5,000
4,642
4,500
4,000
3,694
3,320
3,500
3,419
2,841
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,780
1,500
1,000
500
73
119
121
174
183
197
215
391
411
565
613
651
0
… with wide intra-regional differences, and minimum wages the
main wage setting mechanism, but challenges in rationalization and
robust mechanisms for wage setting.
Note: Hong Kong (China) and Japan refer to full-time employees.
Source: ILO Global Wage Datatase 2014/15, based on national statistics.
…low ratification of Conventions…
Freedom of
association
C087
Asia and
the
Pacific
(34)
World
(185)
Forced labour
C098
C029
Discrimination
C105
C100
C111
Child labour
C138
Ratification
rate
C182
18
21
27
23
28
24
23
30
71%
153
164
177
174
171
172
167
179
91%
…economic progress not matched by social progress and
labour market institutions….
Source: ILO: Normlex.
…mixed labour force trends…

Projected labour force growth, 2010-15, 2015-20, and 2020-25 (per cent)
16
2010-15
2015-20
2020-25
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Thailand
Singapore
Viet Nam
Myanmar
Brunei
Malaysia
Darussalam
Indonesia Cambodia Philippines Lao PDR
ASEAN
…while the labour force will expand significantly in some
countries, others face ageing societies, factor spurring migration in
the region, with large segments undocumented.
Source: official national sources; ILO: Estimates and Projections of the Economically Active Population (EAPEP), Jan. 2014; ILO: ILOstat database.
In South East Asia, AEC 2015
Will create new opportunities
 But could also aggravate inequalities and vulnerabilities
 The free mobility of skilled workers likely to have little
impact, while increased migration of low and medium
skilled likely,


Urgent policy action required to prepare labour markets
for AEC, and to protect migrant workers.
In a nutshell, challenges include:
Inequality, wages, and labour market institutions
 Gender equality
 Social protection
 Labour migration and regional integration
 Large informal segments that are not organized
 Low ratification rates of core conventions
 Incomplete
and irregular regional labour market
information system

Overview

Key regional trends and challenges

Looking forward: Areas for action
Concerted action is needed
Promote
shared
prosperity
Manage
structural
change
Greater
tripartite
dialogue
Manage structural change





Industrial and sectoral policies
Education and training
Social protection
Small and medium enterprises
Investing in infrastructure
Promote shared prosperity




Strengthening productivity-wage link
Improving opportunities for better quality jobs
Promoting gender equality
Protecting migrant workers
Greater cooperation and dialogue


Improving labour market information
Tripartite dialogue
THANK YOU
Sukti Dasgupta
ILO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Decent Work for All
ASIAN DECENT WORK DECADE 2006-2015