Transcript Cytacka-Vilnuis 13-15.5.2014

WORKING DRAFT
Last Modified 8/13/2010 4:05:09 PM Central Europe Standard Time
Printed 13.08.2010 14:22:48 Central Europe Standard Time
National Programme for the Development
of Renewable Energy Sources
Seminar The role of civil society in implementing the EU directives on the development of
renewable energy sources in Lithuania
13 May, 2014
Context
– The Ministry of Energy commissioned a study intended to contribute to the drafting of the
Programme for the Development of Renewable Energy Sources (RES). The main objective of
the study was to determine national targets for energy consumption from renewable sources
in the electricity, heat and transport sectors and propose measures for achieving those
targets.
– The study identified three problem areas where difficulties in achieving the 2020 targets set
for the consumption of energy from renewable sources might arise, namely: RES
consumption in the electricity generation and distribution sector, the transport sector and
for individual household heating.
– The strategic goal of the Programme for the Development of Renewable Energy Sources is to
promote the use of RES and ensure that RES represent a significant share of national primary
energy resources in 2020.
1
Energy consumption expected to grow by up to 8% before 2020
in thousands of toe
7.8%
5.466
Sector
Main prerequisites for the estimated growth:
 Predicted annual GDP growth of 3.9 per
cent until 2020
 Growing efficiency of heat consumption
and transmission
 Growing efficiency of electricity
transmission
 Predicted energy consumption decrease in
the district and household heating sectors
 Predicted growth in the electricity and
transport sectors – 13% and 10%
respectively before 2020
5.0671
Electricity
Transport
Heat for
households
Heat for district
heating
Other heat
Actual
consumption
in 2012
Estimated
consumption
in 2020
Sources: Statistics Lithuania, Ministry of Finance
2
RES targets still to be achieved in the sectors of
electricity, transport and heat for households
Energy consumption, in thousands of toe
A | Electricity3
Total energy
5,067
3,972
1,102
2012
RES: 22%
959
5,466
1,124
2020
estimation
Target 23%1
Estimation 31%2
C | Transport5
- Proposed measures
164
1,313
2020
estimation
RES: 11% Target 20%4
Estimation 23%2
2012
1 – The target set in accordance with EU Directive 2009/28/EC.
63
2012
B1 | Heat for households
822
803
161
262
1,442
1,298
1,250
103
- Non RES
- RES shortfall
3,800
285
1,388
- RES
1
79
2020
estimation
RES: 4.8% Target 10%1
Estimation 5.5%2
B2 | District heating
2 – The estimation based on the implementation of the proposed measures.
874
3 – In the electricity sector the RES share based on EU Directive 2009/28/EC was calculated as a share
of total national energy consumption. This is the total indicated here. However, it should be pointed
out that electricity generated in pump storage power plants (44 thousand toe) was not taken into
account when calculating the RES share.
630
773
189
4 – The target set by the Law on Energy from Renewable Sources.
5 – In the transport sector the RES share based on EU Directive 2009/28/EC was calculated in respect
of only part of the fuel consumed by the transport sector. The natural and petroleum gas consumed in
the transport sector and the fuel consumed by air transport were excluded from the calculations. Thus,
the diagram represents only the fuel that was used as a basis for calculating the share of RES consumed
by the transport sector.
6 – The fuel used to produce heat by non-household consumers (industry, services, agriculture,
fisheries and construction).
2020
estimation
RES: 28% Target 60%4
2012
Estimation 76%2
2012
2020
estimation
RES: 68% Target 80%4
Estimation 74%2
B3 | Other heat6
1,204
950
817
817
133
2012
RES: 14%
1.044
1,04
4
160
2020
estimation
Target undefined
Estimation 13%
Sources: Lithuanian District Heating Association, Statistics Lithuania, Law on Energy from Renewable Sources
3
A | First target: to increase local electricity generation from RES.
It is proposed that the shortfall in RES-based electricity be offset by new biofuel/biogas
installations
Electricity generation from RES in 2020, in thousands of toe
Capacities
in galingumų
2013
Esamų
gamyba






Wind – 49 thousand toe
Hydro energy – 37 thousand toe1
Biofuel – 22 thousand toe
Solar energy – 5 thousand toe
Waste – 4 thousand toe
Biogas – 4 thousand toe
95
43
18
Infrastructure built in 2013
103
Infrastructure built before and in
2012
Capacity in
2013
RES
share
259
11%
Planned
capacity
4%
Additional production under quotas
by 2020
Produced under allocated quotas:
 Wind – 39 thousand toe
 Biogas – 4 thousand toe
Proposed RES consumption
capacity in 2020
8%
23%
Proposal
 In order to cover the shortfall it is proposed to subsidise the most cost-effective projects for electricity
generation from RES. The most cost-effective projects are the initiatives to convert gas installations in Vilnius
and Kaunas into biofuel and/or waste-based installations (in accordance with the National Programme for the
Development of the Heat Sector) and to build new cogeneration installations using biomass and/or biogas in
other Lithuanian cities.
 Estimated demand for support – up to LTL1 133 million.
1 – Excluding the Kruonis pump storage power plant
Sources: National Commission for Energy Control and Prices, Litgrid
4
A | Proposed electricity generation from RES by 2020
MW installed capacity
Capacity in 2013
Planned capacity
(promoted
Potential through public
interest services)
1. Biofuel
 52
 350
2. Hydroenergy
 128
 30
3. Biogas
(landfills)
 9
4. Biogas (anaerobic  9
degradation)
 02
Proposed
capacity, to be
achieved with
EU funding1
Estimates
for 2020
Comment
 198-2413
 250-293  The construction of new installations and conversion of existing gas-based
 1
 0
 129
 0
 0
 0
 9

According to the draft National Waste Management Plan, waste
processing will contribute to the reduction of fuel (waste) accumulation
in landfills.
 75
 12
 0-433
 21-64

Biogas production potential in agriculture was indicated.
cogeneration installations into biogas installations was taken into account.

The potential in the Nėris segment of Kaunas-Jonava was included, but
could only be exploited following amendments to the Law on Water.
5. Wind energy
(on-shore)
 278
 n.a.
 222
 0
 500

The impact of further development on electricity grids is not clear. In the
Law on RES the Lithuanian government undertook to draft a procedure
for further development after achieving the capacity of 50 MW4.
6. Wind energy
(off-shore)
 0
 n.a.
 n.a.
 0
 n.a.

The economic potential is not known. After the off-shore areas are
added to the general plan of the territory of Lithuania, research
will be conducted regarding specific marine areas.
7. Solar energy
 69
 n.a.
 0
 0
 69

The impact of further development on electricity grids is not clear. In
the Law on RES the Lithuanian government undertook to draft a
procedure for further development after achieving the capacity of 10
MW4.
1 – Proposed capacity to achieve the targets with the support of the EU structural funds. 2 – Ministry of Energy data. 3 – Kaunas Technology University is currently conducting a study
commissioned by Litgrid on Possibilities of connecting power plants using RES to the 330-110 kV transmission grids by 2030, focusing on the impact of further development of wind and
solar plants on transmission grids. 4 – It is proposed to build new cogeneration installations with 43 MW total installed capacity using biofuel or biogas in Lithuanian towns and cities
other than Vilnius and Kaunas. The total installed capacity has been planned, but it is not clear how the capacity will be shared between biofuel and biogas installations.
Sources: National Commission for Energy Control and Prices, Litgrid
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B1 | Second target: to increase the total final RES consumption in the thermal energy production
sector from 35 per cent in 2020 to at least 45 per cent in 2020.
Households. It is estimated that without additional measures the share of RES in households will
amount to 68 per cent in 2020
RES consumption in households with individual heating in 2020, in thousands of toe
Shortfall in RES (to achieve
the target would cost
LTL80-110 million)
Estimated RES consumption
RES consumption in 2020
 Biofuel will remain the main fuel
for individually heated
households
 On the basis of 2009-2012 trends,
it is estimated that without
additional measures there will be
no change in RES share in total
consumption before 2020
 It is predicted that the increase in
gas and biofuel prices will
improve heating efficiency
 Greater efficiency will mean that
actual RES consumption will
change very little in absolute
figures as compared to 2012
Estimated RES Proposed
consumption measures
RES
share
68%
6%
RES
consumption in
2020
74%
Proposal
 To actively promote the conversion of installations using fossil fuel into installations using biofuel, to
support the installation of geothermal heating and the development of solar panels that would not
produce surplus heat in the summer season.
 Estimated demand for support – LTL70-112 million.
Sources: Statistics Lithuania
6
B2| District heating. If the measures proposed were implemented, only a
quarter of the fuel consumed for district heating would come from sources
other than RES
RES consumption by district heating producers in 2020, in thousands of toe
144
Current RES consumption
A total of 244 thousand toe::
 241 thousand toe of solid
biomass
 1 thousand toe of biogas
 2 thousand toe of geothermal
energy
RES share in district heating
584
196
Increase in consumption
A total of 196 thousand toe::
 195 thousand toe of solid
biomass
 1 thousand toe of biogas
244
RES
Proposed
Current RES Increase
in
Vartojimo
Siūlomos consumption
measures
consumption consumption
didėjimas priemonės
in 2020
32%
24%
19%
75%
Proposal
 In accordance with the National Programme for the Development of the Heat Sector it is proposed to allocate
additional support to new biofuel installations.
 Estimated demand for support – up to LTL420 million.
1 – National programme for the development of the heat sector
Sources: Statistics Lithuania
7
B3| Other heat. The main heat consumer – industry
RES consumption for individual heating by non-household consumers in 2020, in thousands of toe
160
Current RES consumption
A total of 133 thousand toe :
 130 thousand toe of solid
biomass
 3 thousand toe of biogas
 2 thousand toe of straw
RES share in the sector of other
heat

Increase in consumption
A total of 27 thousand toe:
 23 thousand toe of wood biofuel
 4 thousand toe of biogas
Current RES
consumption
11%
Increase in RES consumption
consumption in 2020
2%
13%
There are no measures provided for in the programme to increase the RES share in the individually heated nonhousehold consumer group.
8
C | Third target: to increase the use of RES in the transport sector. It is proposed to
reduce the shortfall in RES to 65 thousand toe
RES consumption in transport sector in 2020, in thousands of toe
Shortfall in RES (to achieve
the target would cost LTL1.41.6 billion)
Consumption
in 2012
Dabartinis vartojimas
Growth of consumption
A total of 62 thousand toe:
 Blending of biofuels into fuel: 5%
into petrol, 7% into diesel fuel
 E85 vehicles
 Public transport (trolleybuses and
electric trains)
 Electric vehicles (there were up to
4 such vehicles in Lithuania in
2012)
A total of 16 thousand toe, main
preconditions:
 Increase of biofuel blending into
petrol to 10%
 Growth in the volume of blended
biofuel proportionate to the
increase in total fuel consumption
 Increased consumption of RES-based
electricity in the transport sector1
RES share
64
16
1
80
63
Current
Increase in
consumption consumption
4.3%
1.1%
Propose
measures
RES
consumption in
2020
0.1%
5.5%
Proposal
 To encourage the buying of E852 vehicles by setting a target that 1% of new cars should be powered
by E85; to promote the use of biogases in public transport by setting the target of ensuring that
biogases make up 3% of the fuel used in CNG3-powered buses.
 Estimated need for support: LTL27 million.
1 – The formula for RES-based electricity share in the transport sector is: the amount of electricity consumed by transport x 2.5 x RES-based electricity share in the EU; 2 – a fuel mix
containing 85% of bioethanol and 15% of petrol; 3 – compressed natural gas.
Sources: National Commission for Energy Control and Prices, Litgrid.
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Thank you for your attention!
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