Transcript שקופית 1

The Israeli Economy
Towards 2014
Polish Israeli Business Forum – November 2013
Dan Catarivas
Manufacturers Association of Israel (MAI)
Federation of Israeli Economic
Organizations (FIEO)
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Manufacturers Association of Israel
Federation of Israeli Chambers of Commerce
Association of Contractors & Builders in
Israel
Farmers’ Federation of Israel
Association of Banks of Israel
Israel Diamond Manufacturers Association
Israel Hotel Association
General Association of Merchants in Israel
Association of Life Insurance Companies of
Israel
Association of Craft and Industry in Israel
National Federation of Trade in Israel
Cinema Owners Association in Israel
Israel
Federation
of
Organizations – LAHAV
Independent's
Association of Security Enterprises in Israel
Israeli Cleaning and Maintenance Union
Manufacturers Association of Israel (MAI)
Established in 1921
An Independent private organization
Self-Financed
Israel’s largest and most influential economic
organization
Largest employers’ organization, representing
90% of the industrial output
President of MAI is also the President of the
Federation of Israeli Economic Organizations
(FIEO)
“The Voice of the Industry”
President
Director General
Small &
Medium
Factories
Division
Association of
Electronics,
Information &
Software
Industries
Labor & HR
Division
Building
Materials &
Consumer
Goods
Association
Haifa Branch
Finance and
Administration
Division
Economics
Division
Chemical,
Metal, Electrical
Pharmaceutical & Infrastructure
& Environmental
Industries
Society
Association
Southern Branch
Communications
Division
Food
Industries
Association
Foreign Trade &
International
Relations
Division
Textile &
Fashion
Industries
Association
Jerusalem
Branch
StartUp
Unit
Kibbutz
Industries
Association
The Israeli Economy
2012 Facts & Figures
•
GDP ($ Billions)
240
•
Population (8/2012, Millions)
7.9
•
GDP per Capita ($)
30,357
•
Foreign Trade (% of GDP)
77%
•
Total Exports (% of GDP)
38%
•
Unemployment (9/12)
6.8%
•
Business Sector Share in GDP
72%
•
Industry Share of Business Sector
20%
The Israeli Economy
Main Characteristics
Export Oriented Growth
Technologically Advanced & Hi-Tech Oriented
High Skilled Human Capital
Entrepreneurial Culture
Incentives for R&D & Investment
A Growing Economy in an Era of Decline
Growth in Selected Developed Economies 2011-2012
5
4.6
3.9
4
3.7
3.6
3.1
3
3
2.6
1.8
1.7
2
1
1.1
0.9
0.6
1.2
1.4
2
1.6
2.2
2.2
1.8
2011
0.9
2012
0.4
0.2
0.2
0
-0.1
-0.7
-1
-1.3
-2
-2.2
-3
3.1
Source: OECD
Rapid Growth of the Economy
The Israeli Economy
Real Annual Changes
6.3%
5.4%
5.3%
Aagr: 4.8%
4.2%
4.4%
4.1%
3.5%
3.6%
4.6%
3.4%
2.9%
2.7%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
1.7%
1.1%
0.9%
0.5%
-0.7%
GDP
-
GDP per Capita
-
Business Sector GDP
2012 Est.
2013 Frcst.
Relatively Low Public Debt Ratio
Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor, October 2012.
Government's Budgetary
Government
Budget Deficit
Deficit
As Percent of GDP
Target Deficit
Actual Deficit
6.0%
5.2%
5.5%
5%
External shock
4.0%
3.6% 3.4%
External shock
3.0%
2.9%
2.2%
1.8%
4.2%
3.7%
3.3% 3.4%
2.9%
3.5%
3.0%
2.0%
1.6%
1.0%
0%
2013
Frcst.
Shadow Economy
Est. % of unreported transactions from 2007 GDP
80
72.5
70
60
50
43
40
30
20
10
9
9.1
15 15.7 16.7
12.1 13.2 13.2 14 14.3
21.7
19 20.1
23
27.4 27.8 29.1
31
0
Source: New Estimates for the Shadow Economies all over the World" by Friedrich Schneider, Andreas
Buehn, and Claudio E. Montenegro, 2010
35.2 37
Relatively Low Unemployment
Current (May 2013)
Projected (Q4 2014)
%
30
27.8
26.9
25
20
15
10
6.5
4.1
5
4.1
0
Source: OECD
6.9
6.7
7.6
7.8
8.0
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
12
Israel
European Union (28 countries)
10.4
10
9.6
9.5
9.7
9.9
10.1
10.5
10.4
10.7
10.9
10.8
8
6.9
6.9
6
5.6
5.5
5.6
6.9
6.9
6.9
6.6
6.8
5.4
4
2
0
Q2-2011 Q3-2011 Q4-2011 Q1-2012 Q2-2012 Q3-2012 Q4-2012 Q1-2013 Q2-2013
2011
2012
2011
OECD StatExtracts*
2012
2013
High Share of ICT in the Business
ICT Sector GDP, Out ofSector
The Business Sector GDP 2008
ICT= Information & Communications Technologies, 2008
2010 15.7%
16.1
13.9
13.0
12.2
10.4
9.9 9.6
9.0 9.0 8.8 8.8
8.2 8.2 8.1 7.8
7.2 7.1 7.1
6.7 6.4 6.3
6.2 5.9 5.8 5.7
5.7
5.0
3.7
Source: Israel CBS
Relatively Young Population
Median Age in Years - Country Comparison
50
45.7
45
37.2
40
35
29.7
30
25.5
22.6
25
20
18.1
15
10
5
0
Source: CIA Factbook
27.7
38.8
40.3
40.6
40.6
41.3
41.4
41.5
41.8
44.2
45.8
Median Age (Years) of Population
41.2
29.7
Israel
Eurostat and CIA Factbook statistics
EU
Demographics
Age, % of the Population
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
EU
Israel
Israel
EU
OECD Statistics
0-14 years
27.30%
15.42%
15-24 years
15.70%
11.39%
25-54 years
37.70%
42.32%
55-64 years
8.80%
12.67%
65+ years
10.50%
18.21%
Energy & Water Consumption
Area
Electricity
consumption
(kWh/ capita)
Carbon dioxide
emissions
(CO2/ capita)
Freshwater
use
(abstraction
m3/ capita)
Freshwater
intensity of use
(abstraction as
% of internal
resources)
OECD
8226
9.95
840
10.3
ISRAEL
6927
8.66
220
86.4
Source: http://www.iea.org (2013; data from 2009-2012)
Employment Gaps Between Different
Male Populations
Foreign Direct Investments in
Israel (Billions $)
16
15.3
14
11.4
12
10.9
10
8.8
8
7
6
4.8
4
2
3.3
1.8
5
5.5
5.2
2.9
1.6
0
Jan-Sep
12
Israeli Innovation
above G7 countries since mid- 1990s
World Leadership in Civilian R&D
Israel is The World Investments
Leader in Civilian R&D Investment
As Percentage of GDP, 20
4.3%
3.9%
4. %
3.6%
3.3% 3.3%
2.7%
2.5%
201
2.2%
Source: Israel CBS
2.0%
1.8%
1.6%
1.3% 1.3%
1.1%
Global R&D and Innovation Center
Israeli Innovation
Disk-on-Key (Flash Memory) by
SanDisk
PillCam (aka capsule endoscopy) by
Given Imaging
Copaxone (immunomodulator drug for
treating multiple sclerosis) by Teva
ICQ (instant messaging program) by
Mirabilis
Israeli Innovation
Firewall (traffic filtering software) by
Check Point
Irrigation Systems by Netafim
Solar energy
Waze navigation + real-time traffic
analysis and reporting application
Israeli Innovation
Epilady (Epilator) by Mepro, Kibbutz
HaGoshrim, 1986
Skype Technology (Voice over
Internet Protocol) by VocalTec
Cherry Tomatoes (Tomaccio
tomatoes) by Prof. Keidar & Prof.
Rabinovitch, Hebrew University, 1973
The main reason of 2011 protests:
High Cost of Living
30%
25%
20%
15%
Cumulative change rates compared to 2006 average
Food Price
Housing Price
Nominal Wage
25.1%
23.4%
15.3%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Jan. - Jun.
11'
Major Challenges
Global Economy
Exports Profitability
Local Economy
Inputs Costs
State Budget
Bureaucracy, Regulation &
Industrial Relations
Evolution of Israel’s Export, 1980-2012
(in B$, Including diamonds and services)
24
Services
Goods
20
15
16
13
12
3
6
13
31
20
28
28
30
64
61
24
21
18
13
8
5
17
27
30
37
40
44
51
58
56
46
Local Currency Exchange Rate
Compared
to Main
Competitors
Israel:
A Sharp Revaluation
Compared
to Main Competitors
The Change in The local Exchange rate Against The Dollar,
1.1.2006-15.1.2013
($=3.734 NIS)
20%
3%
-22%
-26%
-20%
-18%
-15%
-12%
20%
6%
-10%
-22%
$=3.6 NIS
Japan
30
China Malaysia Israel Canada TaiwanEuro Area Korea
UK
Mexico
India
7 Free Trade Agreements with 39 countries
Allowing products to enter without duty
E.F.T.A
Switzerland Norway,
Iceland, Liechtenstein
Canada
E.U.
(28 Countries)
U.S.A
Turkey
Ukraine
China
India
ISRAEL
Mexico
Panama
Colombia
MERCOSUR
Brazil, Argentina,
Uruguay , Paraguay
31
Negotiated / Considered
S. Korea
Israeli Industrial Goods Export by
Continent 2012 (excl. diamonds)
European
Union
31%
$ 14.3 B
North America
26%
$ 12 B
Latin America
5%
$ 2.2 B
Rest of
Europe
7%
$ 3.3 B
Africa
3%
$ 1.4 B
Total : $ 64895.1 Billion
Asia
21%
$ 9.5 B
Rest of the
World
7%
$3B
Industrial Goods Import by
Continent 2012 (excl. diamonds)
European
Union
34%
$ 22.5 B
North America
15%
$ 9.2 B
Latin America
2%
$ 0.8 B
Rest of
Europe
8%
$ 5.5 B
Africa
1%
$ 0.4 B
Total : $ 64895.1 Billion
Asia
20%
$ 13.2 B
Rest of the
World
20%
$ 13.5 B
2012 Industrial Goods Import by Sectors
(excl. diamonds)
Machinery & Electrical
Equipment
29%
Optical & Photographic
Instruments
9%
Plastics & Rubber
5%
Base Metal Articles
5%
Chemical Products
34%
Vehicles & Transport
Equipment
4%
Other
14%
2012 Industrial Goods Export by Sectors
(excl. diamonds)
Machinery & Electrical
Equipment
24%
Mineral Products
25%
Chemical Products
10%
Other
22%
Vehicles & Transport
Equipment
9%
Plastics & Rubber
4%
Base Metal Articles
6%
Israeli Bilateral Trade with EU
2008-2012
38,648
34,653
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
22,417
18,843
20,000
13,802
14,219
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
Imports to Israel from EU
Exports from Israel to EU
Bilateral trade volume, excl. diamonds
Top Export Destinations in EU 2012
(excl. diamonds)
Israeli – Polish Bilateral Trade
2009 – 2012 (million $ excl. diamonds)
300.0
237.3
250.0
250.3
238.7
248.9
219.0
201.2
200.6
200.0
169.8
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
2009
2010
Israel's export to Poland
2011
Poland's export to Israel
2012
Israeli Industrial Export to
Poland 2012 (excl. diamonds)
Machinery, Electrical
Equipment, Image and
Sound Recorders and
Their Parts
Products of the
Chemical or Allied Ind.
24.9%
38.1%
Plastics, Rubber and
Articles Thereof
6.9%
Total Export:
248.9 M$
Other
18.0%
Prepared Foodstuffs
6.6%
Base Metals & Articles
Thereof
5.5%
Polish Industrial Export to Israel
2012 (excl. diamonds)
Animal Products
11%
Prepared Foodstuffs
23%
Products of the
Chemical or Allied
Ind.
11%
Machinery, Electrical
Equipment, Image
and Sound Recorders
and their Parts
25%
Miscellaneous
Manufactured
Articles
6%
Base Metal Articles
5%
Total Export:
200.6 M$
Other
19%
Thank you!
Dziękuję bardzo!
Dan Catarivas
Foreign Trade & Int’l Relations Division Director
Manufacturers Association of Israel (MAI)
[email protected]