Transcript Euro-Mediterranean integration beyond the crisis

Euro-Mediterranean integration
beyond the crisis
Fabrizio Onida
Università Bocconi, Milano
EIPA and SSPA, Rome, October 28, 2009
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A V-shaped recovery (so far…)
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Rebounding trade (WEO October 2009)
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Export orders decline stabilized in Europe
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China and other BRICs
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Consumer confidence still weak
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Business confidence recovering
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0il and commodity prices up again: impact
of recovery or volatile speculation?
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Trade-output elasticity: will it go
back to about 2 after crisis?
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Risks of W-shaped recovery
• 1. Unemployment on rise
• 2. Premature exhuberance in financial markets
• 3. Delayed policy responses to regulations of
derivatives
• 4. (Medium term) uncertainty on debt/GDPO ratios
“A dull, heavy calm” (Economist, October 3, 2009)
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Growth, inflation, current account balance
(IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2009
Africa
Maghreb
Algeria
Morocco
Tunisia
Sub-Sahar
Middle East
Oil exporters
Mashreq
Egypt
Syrian Arab republic
Jordan
Lebanon
Turkey
Israel
Emerging Europe
CSI
Advanced economies
Euroarea
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Real GDP growth
2008
2009
2010
5.2
1.7
4.0
4.1
3.2
3.6
3.0
2.1
3.7
5.6
5.0
3.2
4.6
3.0
4.0
5.5
1.3
4.1
5.4
2.0
4.2
4.9
1.3
4.2
7.0
4.5
4.4
7.2
4.7
4.5
5.2
4.0
4.2
7.9
3.0
4.0
8.5
7.0
4.0
0.9
-6.5
3.7
4.0
-0.1
2.4
2.9
-5.2
1.8
5.5
-6.7
2.1
0.6
-3.4
1.3
0.7
-4.2
0.3
Consumer Prices
2008
2009
2010
10.3
9.0
6.5
4.4
3.9
3.2
4.5
3.4
3.9
2.8
2.8
5.0
3.5
3.4
11.9
10.5
7.3
15.0
8.3
6.6
15.8
7.0
6.3
12.3
13.0
7.5
11.7
16.2
8.5
15.2
7.5
6.0
14.9
0.2
4.0
11.0
2.5
3.5
10.4
6.2
6.8
4.8
3.3
2.0
8.0
4.7
4.2
15.6
11.8
9.4
3.4
0.1
1.1
3.3
0.3
0.8
Current account balance/GDP
2008
2009
2010
2.5
-3.1
-1.7
10.6
-1.1
1.8
23.2
2.7
7.3
-5.4
-5.5
-4.7
-4.2
-3.8
-2.9
18.3
2.6
7.9
18.3
2.6
7.9
21.8
4.0
10.4
-2.7
-4.1
-4.4
0.5
-2.4
-2.8
-4.0
-3.2
-4.3
-11.3
-11.0
-8.8
-11.6
-11.3
-10.5
-5.7
-1.9
-3.7
1.0
3.2
2.4
8.0
4.7
4.2
4.9
2.9
4.4
-1.3
-0.7
-0.4
-0.7
-0.7
-0.3
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World import shares (a), geographical weights on Italy’s export (b), Italy’s
world export shares
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
UE-27
38.7
60.0
5.5
153.0
5,611
Russia
2.5
2.7
5.9
164.0
-4,776
Svizzera
1.2
3.7
9.7
270.0
2,295
Africa settentrionale
1.1
2.8
10.7
297.0
-15,243
Altro Africa
1.8
1.3
2.8
78.0
-1,968
11.5
7.6
1.7
47.0
14,367
America Latina
5.7
3.4
2.3
64.0
1,381
Medio Oriente
4.7
4.7
5.0
139.0
733
Asia Centrale e Meridionale
1.8
1.3
2.2
61.0
-2,471
27.0
6.2
1.0
28.0
-15,845
Cina
8.9
1.8
1.0
28.0
-15,453
Giappone
5.1
1.2
1.1
30.0
-1,022
1.3
100.0
0.9
100.0
2.4
3.6
67.0
100.0
1,689
-9447
Nord America
Asia Orientale
Oceania
Mondo
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
Quota di ciascun mercato sulle importazioni mondiali
Peso mercato su export Italia
Export Italia/export Mondo su ogni mercato
Quota c) rapportata a quota media Export Italia/Export Mondo (3.6%)
Saldo (export – import) in milioni di euro
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Fonte: ICE, Rapporto 2007-08
World trade shares: Africa and Middle East
low but rising
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Value and Shares of World Exports 1948 – 2005
billion dollars and percentage
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Value and Shares of World Imports 1948 – 2005
billion dollars and percentage
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World merchandise exporters (excluding intraEU 27 trade), 2007
Rank
Exporters
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
14
22
23
28
29
31
36
37
38
46
48
49
Extra-EU 27
China
United States
Japan
Canada
Korea, Republic of
Russian Federation
Hong Kong, China
domestic exports
re-exports
Singapore
domestic exports
re-exports
Mexico
Taipei, Chinese
Saudi Arabia
U.A.E.
Turkey
Iran, Islamic Rep.
Kuwait
Algeria
Israel
Lybian Arab Jamahiriya
Qatar
Iraq
Egypt
Tunisia
Morocco
Total leading 50 exporters
W orld (excl. Intra-EU 27 trade)
value. Bn.$
share
1697.8
1217.8
1162.5
712.8
419
371.5
355.2
349.4
18.1
331.3
299.3
156
143.3
272
246.4
234.2
173
107.2
86.1
62.4
60.2
54.1
45.4
42
41.6
16.2
15
14.7
16.4
11.8
11.3
6.9
4.1
3.6
3.4
3.4
0.2
3.2
2.9
1.5
1.4
2.6
2.4
2.3
1.7
1
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.1
10003.5
10622
96.9
100
Fonte: W TO, W orld Trade Report 2008
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World merchandise importers (excluding intraEU 27 trade), 2007
Rank
Importers
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
18
22
26
30
35
36
40
41
42
43
44
46
48
50
value, bn. $
United States
Extra-EU 27
China
Japan
Canada
Hong Kong,China
retained imports
Korea, Republic of
Mexico
Singapore
retained imports
Russian Federation
Taipei, Chinese
India
Turkey
U.A.E.
Saudi Arabia
Israel
Iran. Islamic Rep.
Iraq
Morocco
Algeria
Egypt
Croatia
Kuwait
Qatar
Tunisia
Serbia
Syrian Arab Rep.
Total leading 50 importers
W orld (excl. Intra-EU 27)
share
2020.4
1952
956
621.1
589.6
370.1
93.3
356.8
296.3
263.2
119.9
223.4
219.6
216.6
170.1
132
90.2
59
46
32
31.7
27.6
27.1
25.8
23.6
22
19
18.4
14.5
19
18.4
9
5.8
3.7
3.5
0.9
3.4
2.8
2.5
1.1
2.1
2.1
2
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
10188.4
10622
95.9
100
Fonte: W TO, W orld Trade Report 2008
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Leading exporters-importers
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North Africa’s import origins
Africa Settentrionale, 2007
Composizione geografica delle importazioni (129 bn$)
UE-27
50.7
Francia
13.2
Italia
10.7
Germania
6.9
Spagna
5.8
Altri Europa
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AFRICA
4.1
Nord America
8.1
America Latina
4.2
Medio Oriente
6.4
Asia Centr. Merid.
1.6
Asia Orientale
14.8
Cina
8.1
Giappone
2.1
Sud Corea
1.7
Oceania
0.6
Fonte: ICE, Rapporto 2007-08
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Middle East: intra-regional and EU
integration
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“Natural resource curse”: Africa and Middle East
slower decline than other Developing
economies
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More and less favourable macro-structural
indicators
•
Developing Mediterranean countries vs. other developing African and Asian countries:
1. More favourable:
- reduction in child mortality 1990-2005
- gross enrollment ratio in secondary education (% of relevant age group)
- public debt/GDSP
- ODA/GDP
2. Less favourable:
- population rate of growth 90-05 and forecast 2005-15
- unemployment
- poor infrastructures
- oil-gas export dependence (Algeria, Lybia, Siria, Egypt)
“The creation of the Union for the Mediterranean is hardly the rebirth of imperial Rome, but it
may just be the start of something exciting” (The Economist, “Club Med”, July 12°, 2008)
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FDIs: still rising in developing areas in 2008, unlike
developed ones. How heavy 2009 fall?
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FDI into developing areas: no crush in 2009
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Egypt largest recipient of M&A investors
from Europe and Gulf
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Euromed integration and outward
oriented development: catching
the opportunities and a long way
to go!
All the best!
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