Transcript MESA MODELING ACTIVITIES: PHYSICAL BASIS FOR …

SUMMARY OF THE MESA
MODELING RELATED
ACTIVITIES DISCUSSED
IN VMP8
VAMOS strategy of Modeling
Implementation Plan
• Assesment of models ( integration of NAME,
MESA, VOCALS)
• Requires participation/ collaboration from
both research groups and operational setor.
• Need Integration between Field Activities,
Research Modeling and Operational
Forecasting.
DISCUSSIONS IN PLENARY SESSION
• One theme was proposed in the beginning:
Diurnal cycle of precipitation and clouds.
• Need to focus in a few topics, uniform
for both MESA and NAME.
• A list of topics was presented, with
subjects that appeared on the
presentations.
Thematic Approach
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Diurnal Cycle
Low Level Jets
PBL Processes
Orographic Effects: Coastal
Winds, Precipitation
Mixed-Layer Processes
Low Level Cloudiness
Air-Sea Interactions
Air-Land Interactions
Warm Season Precipitation:
Remote vs. Local Impacts
Regional Climate Change
Assessment
Resolution Issues
Interactions with SSTs other
than ENSO
Extra-Tropical Interactions
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Predictability Assessment
Seasonality in Predictability
Low Frequency Modes
Prediction Assessment
Fresh Water Flux/Salinity
Issues
Hemispheric Interactions
Scale Interactions: Temporal
and Spatial (Transients…)
Convergence Zone Processes
(SACZ, ITCZ)
Impact of Land Use Changes
Seasonal Predictability in a
Changing Climate
Extreme Events
Intraseasonal Variability
Interactions with ENSO
THEMES DISCUSSED
• 1. There was a discussion about the theme of drought
prediction in the Americas, that was changed to droughts
and floods in the Americas.
• 2. Another suggestion : Diurnal cycle
• 2.1. In the theme of diurnal cycle, incorporate hydrological
component , Cumulus convection and surface heating
budgets. Maybe the cumulus convection parameterization is
a subject that cant be achieved in a short time, then it is
better to analyse the diurnal cycle of convection, rather than
to test different schemes.
• 3. There is still need to improve prediction of onset of
monsoon and intraseasonal variability.
• 4. Suggestion for a theme: Life cycle of SAMS.
• 4.1 There are metrics that are important: Onset monsoon,
Simulating nocturnal precipi. related to diurnal cycle.
THEMES
• 5. There is social impacts in the prediction of drought ,
in SA. We can do this in operational centers. It is
important to be able to predict SST in South Atlantic.
SACZ, may be elected as a theme.
• 5.1. But the theme needs to be uniform in NAME and
MESA.
• 6. Suggestion of a theme in environmental problems.
(droughts, fire, aerosols)
• 6.1. Aerosol is important in the transition season. Look
at surface process, deforestation.
• 7. Need to link to climate change. Theme? No. This could
be in each of other themes.
• 8. Prediction of SST surrounding Americas (air sea
interaction)
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
• 9. Use of Climate Test Bed (CPC/NCEP) mentioned by
Mo. This facility is to climate models use, to model
development. There are resources in the CTB to do
activities related to modeling. It is important to use this
infrastructure, working together to achieve results.(This
system will accelerate the experiments, the analysis and
the conclusions). (test of different physical processes).
/cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb
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9.1. The idea is to do several modeling experiments,
using several models and a multi-model approach, to
improve the predictions. Global Circulation Models and
also regional models can be tested. Participation of
CPTEC was welcome.
• 10. Need to know how to do multi model ensemble, to
forecasting and development applications.
• 11. Consider different themes and different models.
Example of Thorpex in UK that considers a diversity of
models.
MODELING AND FIELD EXPERIMENTS
• 12. There is a need to have a bridge between weather
forecast and seasonal prediction. Looking the model
bias, they are similar in weather and climate forecasts.
There is a need of interaction of weather community
and climate community.
• 13. There is a worry about coordination of
experiments and design. Normally in the process of
experiment design, they don’t take into account the
complexity of the models. In VAMOS there is an
opportunity to talk more about experiment design.
Example of Krishnamurty paper of how to explore
individual roles of modeling aspects.
• 14. Importance of VAMOS of planning field
experiments. Suggestion of field experiment over
South Atlantic, to understand the ITCZ and SACZ
behaviour.
DATA ASSIMILATION
• 15. Data assimilation is a topic to be considered.
• 15.1. What kind of observation system we need.
• 15.2. Discussion of reanalysis. To insert the data from
experimental SALLJEX, we need high resolution models.
We have problems in simulating convection, and we
need data assimilation of other variables, as from
satellite data, to improve convection.
• 15.3. What should be the strategy of data assimilation.
• 16. Large amount of outputs from the model
experiments: how to cope with this.
MODELS AND VARIABILITY IN SEVERAL
TIMESCALES
• 17. How the models represent the interdecadal variability.
• 17.1. Interannual variability
• 17.2. Intraseasonal variability.
OTHER COMMENTS
18. The implementation plan should not limit
participation and include hydrologists.
19. There was a comment about the large gap
between research and operational group that could be
considered in the project.
20. The applications are considered in a regional
base, and VAMOS community can help with the
applications.
5 selected themes
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Diurnal cycle
Droughts and Floods
Life cycle of Monsoon
Predicting SST surrounding Americas
Data assimilation
MESA AND NAME
SOME TOPICS IN VMP8 PRESENTATIONS
METRICS TO MODEL DEVELOPMENT :
IMPROVE SIMULATION OF MONSOON ONSET
IMPROVE TOTAL AMOUNT OF DIURNAL VARIABILITY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAXIMUM
AMOUNT OF NOCTURNAL PRECIPITATION
TIME AVERAGE SURFACE FLUX (PRE AND POS
ONSET)
SPECIAL FOCUS IN SIMULATING DIURNAL CYCLE
ISSUES: PERIODS TO SIMULATE,
EXAME SUBMONTHLY TRANSIENT VARIABILITY
NAMS: Influence of tropical cyclones on humidity flux to the LLJ.
• Vertical resolution improves Evap/soil moisture relationships.
• Improvement of surface dataset using satellite.
• Downscale for regional models and hydrological models :
Application of products: Agriculture, water resources.
Hydrological Models:
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Importance of local process
Importance of remote process
Dataset needed: topography, vegetation,soil type,
Observation: precipitation, river discharge, flux tower, soil
moisture
• Satellite: precipi., short wave, soil moiture
• VOCALS:
• stratus clouds over Pacific close to the South America
west coast.
• SST: warmer bias in prediction.
• How important are eddies related to surface heat fluxes
(regional ocean model)
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How well coupled models simulate Eastern Tropical Pacific ?
Annual mean, annual cycle, interannual variability of SST
Need to focus on improvement of coupled models
Double ITCZ problem, mix layer too shalow
Warm bias along eastern Pacific
Not enough low stratus clouds near west coast
• Resolution of T126 to reproduce the diurnal cycle
• Need to reduce uncertainty and increase skill
• Need of regional analysis in global models
• Charge to Modeling group:
• Universal problems, as Resolution, Physics, Prediction, to South
Monsoon Region
• Using Grell convective scheme improved representation of
rainfall for the SACZ all the way to the Amazon.
• AGCM CPTEC/COLA : seasonal, interannual, intraseasonal,
diurnal cycle. Low predictability in SAMS.
• Need of new methods of analysis (cluster, probabilities, I.C,,.,..)
• Model resolution seems to play a key role in correctly
reproducing intraseasonal variability (20-40 day) over the
SAMS.
• Causes for night formation of convection.
• Conditions at high level.
• Predictability of large scale conditions.
• Get the right diurnal cycle.
• Sensitivity to soil moisture.
• Initialization of soil moisture improved precipi. in SACZ.
• 3-D structure of MCSs analyzed by applying radar and
satellite data
• Problems: models are not able to:
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1) reproduce nature of the diurnal cycle of precipitation
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2) deal with the step orography in the region
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3) accurately represent MCSs (low-efficiency systems)
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Improvements on radiation/cloud physics are required
• Several models that have similar convective schemes result
in different diurnal cycles
• Perform inter-comparison of mesoscale convection during
SALJJEX
• Is deforestation going to affect moisture transport?
• Question as to whether persistence in soil moisture from
previous winter-spring to onset of monsoon is model
artifact
• Air-sea interaction and mechanisms and predictability
issues related to the formation of Convergence Zones (ITCZ
and SACZ) that affect climate variability over South America
• Distribution of land and sea plays a role in the convective
patterns.
• Development of tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific:
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1) Provides air masses of enhanced moisture at low to
mid-levels
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2) Direct passage associated with deep convection over
the gulf and landfall events in Baja California