OGC TC Meeting Valencia, Spain 2 Dec 2008

AIP-2 CC&Bio WG Use scenarios

Stefano Nativi (CNR) and Gary Geller (NASA/JPL)

Selected use scenarios

• CC impact on Pika distribution • CC impact on Polar Ecosystems • Vegetation changes in Arctic Ecosystems

CC IMPACT ON PIKA DISTRIBUTION

Abstract

• This scenario is driven primarily by scientific research on the distribution of pika and how it is changing . • From the GEOSS infrastructure perspective, an important objective is to investigate the interoperability process to determine valuable predictors for the impact of climate change on biodiversity • Use observations of pika over the last 20 years, plus existing modeling demonstration systems, to model pika distributions and how they may change with climate

Users

• Scientist and decision makers .

Context and pre-conditions

Area of Interest

• The US Great Basin region • Other regions in Asia may be considered

Scientific patrons

• Dr. Chris Ray (University of Colorado - CO USA) • Dr. Falk Huettmann – EWHALE lab- Biology and Wildlife Dept., Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks

Context and pre-conditions

Resources

• IPCC data (WMO) • Biodiversity datasets (GBIF) • Biodiversity datasets (Univ. Colorado) • Local CC model: TOPS (NASA/JPL) • IP3 ENM server (IP3) • IP3 community distributed catalog (IP3)

General Approach

Researcher selects species of interest based on research needs and data availability Researcher uses GBIF&IP3 components to develop correlation model between species and environment. TOPS data are used if available, otherwise other climate sources can be used

.

Researcher uses GBIF&IP3 components to predict how range distributions will contract in the future

Researcher uses known physiological limits of the species to direct the development of models relating predicted climate change to predicted change in species distribution

Researcher validates model using additional observations

CC IMPACT ON BIODIVERSITY/ECOSYSTEMS FOR THE POLAR AREA

Abstract

• The scenario output will be as maps of Arctic biodiversity, habitat and ecological service changes , as well as a summarized scenario runs with all relevant metrics provided in a simple to comprehend table. – All outputs will carry statistical confidence, and should allow to feed directly into policy making.

• The scenario models will allow to assess the amount and quality of Ecological Services provided by the Arctic . • The activities are intended to be linked with all relevant components of the IPY (International Polar Year).

Users

• This scenario will cater the needs for – the global public, scientists , and more specifically, the local decision-maker for achieving best sustainability options.

Context and pre-conditions

Predict Future conditions

• To predict the future scenarios, we will create quantitative associations of biodiversity and habitat with the current and long-term , and then apply these to known and assumed future conditions .

• Possible biodiversity topics include – Polar Bears presence – plankton, selected benthos species, ringed seals, walrus, narwhale, arctic codand endemic plants.

Area of Interest

• The Arctic (as defined as the 60 degree latitude circle)

Scientific patrons

• Dr. Falk Huettmann – EWHALE lab- Biology and Wildlife Dept., Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks

Context and pre-conditions

Resources

• IPCC data (WMO/NCAR) • Biodiversity datasets (GBIF) • Landasat data (USGS) • IP3 community distributed catalog (IP3) • IP3 ENM server (IP3)

General Approach

Environment data has been collected for the Arctic.

Biodiversity data has been collected. Group and Stakeholders set up a governance protocol of the project .Online implementation and fruition The user has been trained on use of the niche modeller and applied them globally Optimization and Niche Modelling techniques have been developed and validated

VEGETATION CHANGES IN ARTIC ECOSYSTEMS

Abstract

• This scenario seeks to identify the extent and degree of vegetation changes in response to climate change in arctic ecosystems, and in particular, the boreal tundra ecotone.

•

Users

– Scientist • with expertise in – use of remote sensing – image processing

Context and pre-conditions Area of Interest

• The Arctic (as defined as the 60 degree latitude circle) – with sites where consistent historical satellite data (Landsat) exist

Scientist patrons

• Dr. Douglas Nebert (USGS)

Context and pre-conditions

•

Resources

– Landsat MSS, 4-band data • the primary long-term source of EO data – Climate and weather data records for polar observation sites • help establish a local baseline for estimation and comparison. – Elevation data • Help understand and extrapolate terrestrial temperature lapse rates from observation sites to test sites.

– GeoBrain by GMU – GloVis or Z39.50 client

General Approach

Identify 30-50 LANDSAT row-path image sites (in tundra, boreal forest, and edge) from the mid-late 1970s and early 2000s Identify suitable imagery pairs for comparison calculate and post the change values as registered maps/coverage services Difference the images to identify changes in the forest landscape Download and subset imagery pairs (using standard catalog interfaces) Classify the imagery